Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[ZenRockGarden]

I know all the talk around GigaTexas is about the 4680 cells but will they be producing 2170 cars alongside the MYSR or will it only be MYSR until they are ready to have 4680 cells in the MYLR and MYP?

I had wondered if the release of the MYSR could decrease the waitlist for the LR and P as some may switch their orders to the SR to have a 4680 car and/or to theoretically get a car much sooner as you'd be front of the line if you order right away or switch your current LR/P order. One issue with that is that anyone who has an order in from before March will probably not save any money buying a SR over a LR so maybe there won't be many switchers??

Another thought I had is that I wondered if the SR may not be that much more inefficient for a roadtrip if the charging curve and speed is improved with the 4680 over the 2170. Shorter range but faster charging may even things out?? Just thinking out load.

As best we can tell, Giga Texas will only produce 4680 based cars, starting with just the MYAWD (the 279 mile range one).

Meanwhile Fremont appears to be in charge of the existing 2170 based MYLR and MYP.

Output from Texas should be a similar slow-ramp as seen in China and Berlin. That means initial production rates in the dozens-of-cars-per-day ballpark with it taking 6 months to a year to hit really serious production levels.

With the above reality, the answer would seem to be "no" - for 2022 the output of a few thousand total MYAWD's from Texas won't put much of a dent in the year-scale backlog of customers waiting for MYLR.

Longer term, yes, Texas will ramp to a scale that does start to help catch demand, and both factories will likely move towards a unified 4680 architecture for all Model Y's, allowing Tesla to more easily alter the mix of what they decide to produce. But that's gonna be 2023 or further IMO

 

[GBwaiting]

I apologize if this question has been asked but I don’t remember seeing it. If Austin is only producing MYSR, where are they going? You can’t buy one. I saw rumors that they were employee cars but I don’t think that was confirmed. Even if it’s only a few a day, they’ve made hundreds of cars. Where are they all?

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I apologize if this question has been asked but I don’t remember seeing it. If Austin is only producing MYSR, where are they going? You can’t buy one. I saw rumors that they were employee cars but I don’t think that was confirmed. Even if it’s only a few a day, they’ve made hundreds of cars. Where are they all?

Early cars appear to have gone to Tesla employees.

We speculate that another non-public destination could be fleet buyers such as the rental companies who have made deals for large blocks of Model Y's - it has been a common industry practice to farm new models into rental fleets to sort out teething problems away from strong public light...

Website source-code peeking suggests that they'll eventually offer MYAWD out the front door. No idea when.

 

[Andrew Smith]

Let’s see if any of the giga texas mysteries will be revealed tomorrow during the Q1 earnings call.

 

[tangible1]

Let’s see if any of the giga texas mysteries will be revealed tomorrow during the Q1 earnings call.

don't wager on it.
Tesla wants to keep the mystique, and the internet bloggers they rely on, alive as long as possible.
The Tesla Master Class in Internet Marketing will continue.

 

[Yperformance]

Mmmmm, not sure it's a master class more like dodge the Osborne effect at any cost.

 

[tangible1]

Mmmmm, not sure it's a master class more like dodge the Osborne effect at any cost.

Master Class
Tightly controlled information while seemingly casual and responsive.
Never a leak; nothing gets out that isn't by design, despite seemingly 'leaked'.
Free Media coverage left right and sideways.
The cost of the 'Cyber Rodeo' was less than a single Big 3 National TV ad, but got XXX times that back in media hype.;

Their strategy to prevent cannibalizing existing orders, after massive hype of new battery tech, is quite smart, and deflects questions of 4680 production volume and yields
(but does leave many disappointed fanbois)

However, the internet blogger hype M.O. has grown tiresome - old, stale, needs a re-make.

 

[MR52]

At about 2:30 in you can see car carriers so the Austin cars are heading somewhere.

 

[afscotch]

At about 2:30 in you can see car carriers so the Austin cars are heading somewhere.

Hopefully where they are going has wall chargers.

 

[Mrbrock]

Maybe sales centers as test drive cars. Build more hype or only allowed to order offline? This happened for a bit with the original SR MY. Was online for a bit then was pulled but you could order off book at a sales center where they were available for test drives. Maybe they will be available to test drive and order this weekend after the earnings call. Who knows.

 

[Firocity]

I wonder if Giga Texas is syphoning off chips and parts from Fremont and that's what's causing the lull in VINs right now.

 

[oholladay]

Let’s see if any of the giga texas mysteries will be revealed tomorrow during the Q1 earnings call.

Elon announced that he will be on the earnings call this evening. Given his statement from the Q2 earnings call last year, I think we can expect something he views as significant - obviously no guarantees it will be related to Giga Texas or Model Y / 4680 production though.

Elon Musk says he's planning to skip Tesla earnings calls going forward unless there's 'something really important' he needs to say

The Tesla and SpaceX CEO said during the company's second-quarter earnings call that he only has "so much time in the day."

www.businessinsider.com

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I'm looking forward to at least a few Elon bread crumbs at the Quarterly call.

 

[Pantha]

They have been shipping cars out of here for a while, but i see on other threads that some centers don't have a test drive vehicle. Besides employees, any one know where there going? It seams someone should have spotted one at a service center by now.

 

[advocate8]

I wonder if Giga Texas is syphoning off chips and parts from Fremont and that's what's causing the lull in VINs right now.

They just aren’t building enough to cause a noticeable blip. Aren’t even close to that.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

They just aren’t building enough to cause a noticeable blip. Aren’t even close to that.

Yeah - based on the drone visuals of cars leaving the factory, and the ramp rates seen at China and Berlin, early output from a Giga-Factory tends to be a few-dozen-per-day, a hundred or two per week till they get things sorted, which takes months. They are hand inspecting all the pieces, finding flaws, re-tooling and adjusting to try and fix said flaw, training brand new production staff... serious stuff.

I would not expect Austin to put a meaningful dent in the backlog of Model Y orders till next year. We'll see what is said on today's quarterly call, but all available evidence suggests that at best Austin tries to cover some of the fleet-buyer demand so Fremont can focus on consumer deliveries in the short term.

 

[advocate8]

Yeah - based on the drone visuals of cars leaving the factory, and the ramp rates seen at China and Berlin, early output from a Giga-Factory tends to be a few-dozen-per-day, a hundred or two per week till they get things sorted, which takes months. They are hand inspecting all the pieces, finding flaws, re-tooling and adjusting to try and fix said flaw, training brand new production staff... serious stuff.

I would not expect Austin to put a meaningful dent in the backlog of Model Y orders till next year. We'll see what is said on today's quarterly call, but all available evidence suggests that at best Austin tries to cover some of the fleet-buyer demand so Fremont can focus on consumer deliveries in the short term.

And perhaps not a terrible thing if they are getting their practice on rentals so humans aren’t stuck with them.

Meanwhile though Elon needs to quit wasting time on quarterly earnings calls and get his ass up to Fremont and build my car.
He’s prob not going to answer any questions we’re interested in and instead talk about Shanghai, chip shortages, Twitter and robots.

 

[kabin]

Tesla saying factories are running below capacity relative to supply chain issues.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Tesla saying factories are running below capacity relative to supply chain issues.

Which doesn't mean much relative to the production rate at Austin which is in early ramp-up mode and would not in any way shape or form be making 1000 cars per day right now even if parts were completely unlimited.

 

[MP3Mike]

Interesting tidbit of information from the Q1 result PDF:

Later this year, we expect Gigafactory Texas will be able to produce Model Ys using both structural packs with 4680 cells as well as non-structural packs with 2170 cells.

So they are going to make 2170 based Model Ys at Giga Texas...