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New button to enable FSD Beta download?

I know everyone has seen Elon's recent tweets, including this one:
First, it's hard to give much credence to this claim. Will this button appear as promised? What will pressing the button do? I am highly skeptical that next week the FSD Beta will be available immediately to everyone who has paid for FSD within the US.

Second, doesn't it feel like Elon is just making up the FSD rollout plan as he goes along? It's been almost 5 years since they started selling FSD. I would think they would have devoted a few meetings to how they were going to gradually roll it out to customers once it was ready. It's almost as if he hasn't thought about this at all. And so in the space of a few hours he went from 'we're gonna double and then 10x the beta group' to 'contact us if you want it' (what does that even mean?) to 'you know what, we're just going to add a button so everyone can download it next week'.

And of course all this after promising existing FSD purchasers early access back in 2018.

I swear, Tesla makes the hard things look easy and the easy things look hard........
 
Personally, I really hope it happens. I can't wait to try FSD Beta for myself even though I know it is just L2. It will be exciting to try it.

Same. Let's say they really did make it available to everyone who has purchased FSD. Do we have any idea how many potential vehicles that is? I know that Tesla has sold somewhere north of 1 million vehicles, and as of 2019 more than half a million of them have AP2+ hardware: Over half a million Tesla electric cars have Autopilot 2 - what's the big deal?

Even if it was 20% FSD uptake, that would be 100,000 vehicles. Is Tesla really prepared to expand their beta from 1,000 users (even that number is suspect at the moment) to 100,000? Seems like an incredibly bold move after being very reserved for the first couple of months.....
 

powertoold

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
3,206
6,938
USA
Lol, I love how Elon says they're carefully rolling out the beta, and then goes hog wild with the FSD beta expansion tweets.

I personally don't care to get the fsd beta, as it's still not good enough for my comfort. Perhaps the 8.3 release will actually be good enough, but I doubt it. I don't mind waiting though, as we all know fsd is a big deal.
 
Same. Let's say they really did make it available to everyone who has purchased FSD. Do we have any idea how many potential vehicles that is? I know that Tesla has sold somewhere north of 1 million vehicles, and as of 2019 more than half a million of them have AP2+ hardware: Over half a million Tesla electric cars have Autopilot 2 - what's the big deal?

Even if it was 20% FSD uptake, that would be 100,000 vehicles. Is Tesla really prepared to expand their beta from 1,000 users (even that number is suspect at the moment) to 100,000? Seems like an incredibly bold move after being very reserved for the first couple of months.....

Well, autopilot is technically still "Beta" and FSD is just autopilot that does more stuff. I think it would make sense to click "ok" to a few more warnings, but you still are required to hold the steering wheel and pay (probably more) attention at all times.
 
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run-the-joules

Turgid Member
Aug 13, 2017
3,785
7,364
SF Bay
Personally, I really hope it happens. I can't wait to try FSD Beta for myself even though I know it is just L2. It will be exciting to try it.

Oh I very much want it to happen, I'll mash that button so hard I'll probably dislocate my finger. But given the years of disappointment so far, I'm not going to let myself have any actual hopes for them to dash again.
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
9,288
13,222
Terre Haute, IN USA
Same. Let's say they really did make it available to everyone who has purchased FSD. Do we have any idea how many potential vehicles that is? I know that Tesla has sold somewhere north of 1 million vehicles, and as of 2019 more than half a million of them have AP2+ hardware: Over half a million Tesla electric cars have Autopilot 2 - what's the big deal?

Even if it was 20% FSD uptake, that would be 100,000 vehicles. Is Tesla really prepared to expand their beta from 1,000 users (even that number is suspect at the moment) to 100,000? Seems like an incredibly bold move after being very reserved for the first couple of months.....

It is possible the download button won't actually be for all US Tesla owners with FSD. Tesla might still pick say 10,000 cars that get the download button. Or it might be first come, first serve, where Tesla adds the button to everybody but then cuts it off after say 10,000 downloads.

Second, doesn't it feel like Elon is just making up the FSD rollout plan as he goes along? It's been almost 5 years since they started selling FSD. I would think they would have devoted a few meetings to how they were going to gradually roll it out to customers once it was ready. It's almost as if he hasn't thought about this at all. And so in the space of a few hours he went from 'we're gonna double and then 10x the beta group' to 'contact us if you want it' (what does that even mean?) to 'you know what, we're just going to add a button so everyone can download it next week'.

Elon's series of tweets do feel like they were not very well planned. It feels like Elon decided to expand the program because he is so happy with the progress. So he thought he would ask Tesla fans to join. But then, he was taken aback by the huge response. I imagine the early access email probably got hundreds of thousands of applications over the weekend. It was probably not practical to go through all the emails and figure out who to invite into FSD Beta. So Elon just decided to add a button to let people download it themselves to make the process easier. Of course, it is entirely possible that if Tesla is not ready to expand FSD Beta that much, that they will change their minds about the download button. We will see.
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
9,288
13,222
Terre Haute, IN USA
I just cannot comprehend that he had no idea that the tens (or hundreds) of thousands of people who paid $5k-$10k for FSD would very much like to try it out.

I know. It seems absurd. But he is the one that tweeted to his millions of followers to just "let us know" if they want to try FSD Beta. What did he think was going to happen? LOL. He should have thought about that before sending the tweet.
 
Also why, why, why could they just not offer it to the first X people who purchased FSD, in order of purchase date. And then expand the beta from there, again by purchase date. So easy. So fair. I bought FSD in early 2018, and would be very happy to see everyone who bought it in 2016-2017 offered the beta before me. It would require no vague 'contact us', no mysterious button, etc.

</rant>
 

run-the-joules

Turgid Member
Aug 13, 2017
3,785
7,364
SF Bay
Also why, why, why could they just not offer it to the first X people who purchased FSD, in order of purchase date. And then expand the beta from there, again by purchase date. So easy. So fair. I bought FSD in early 2018, and would be very happy to see everyone who bought it in 2016-2017 offered the beta before me. It would require no vague 'contact us', no mysterious button, etc.

</rant>

You're making far too much sense for your ideas to be workable in the Tesla Cauldron Of Madness.
 

diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
9,288
13,222
Terre Haute, IN USA
Also why, why, why could they just not offer it to the first X people who purchased FSD, in order of purchase date. And then expand the beta from there, again by purchase date. So easy. So fair. I bought FSD in early 2018, and would be very happy to see everyone who bought it in 2016-2017 offered the beta before me. It would require no vague 'contact us', no mysterious button, etc.

</rant>

That would have been the best thing to do and a nice reward to those who purchased FSD early.
 
My guess is that the button will only be basically an application for FSD and they’ll ask for permission to view driving histories of each car that applies and make their decisions there (or more specifically, given the number of people who are likely to apply, have some sort of algorithm review car data that looks for some sort of unsafe behavior that the Tesla team determines). May also be some interview process, but doubtful with that many people.
 

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