New button to enable FSD Beta download?

[goRt]

In the video, the Youtuber seemed to be very attentive as he described in real-time how it did hit the curbs in the past, so this time it is extra cautious by making an extra wide right turn this time, and still, it still hit the curb this time again and he said "that sucks".

That means the FSD beta skill level is just like the "smart summon" in its job of avoiding hitting curbs.

And what does that mean regarding how much improved the system has advanced in Radar? Vision? Sonars?

Does that mean if we want the system to avoid hitting the curbs in both smart summon and FSD beta, should we add LIDAR?

Of course, the cheapest way is to skip paying $10,000 and let the driver be more careful manually.

I'd argue that by passively sitting there letting your alloys get curbed *again* then that's on you.

To the LIDAR point, surely this is a training point as the car clearly knows there's a turn but fails to identify the curb and avoid.

 

[turnem]

You may be right, that could be consistent. If we’re lucky we will get some follow-up clarification.

But yes, it could be:
8.2 - 2k
8.3 - Button 10k+ (not a “significant release”)
9.0 - Pure vision (April? - but of course could be May or June, depending)

I guess we will see.

Yea - this was my takeaway from his last few days of tweets. I'm guessing that when 9.0 rolls out it will go out to a small group of beta testers first and then we will see a slow rollout similar to what we are seeing with the current beta.

So I'm thinking we will basically have a broader rollout of the current FSD Beta overlapping with a smaller rollout of 9.0.

Additionally - if they truly are paying attention to "ignored nags" and then revoking access based on this then I do really like the idea of an on-demand type system for testing out new functionality (including all the necessary waivers/warnings). I think they are to the point where most responsible people can handle the current state of FSD Beta without issue.

 

[diplomat33]

I think the option to be able to get out of the FSD Beta is underappreciated. Hopefully it's easy to get out.

Anyway, it looks like Elon lied overpromised, underdelivered (as in link above). I guess it depends on your definition of ~10 days, and whether 25-55 days ~= 10:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1370522745709158407

Well, I'd like to get in FSD Beta first before trying to get out. LOL. It seems like FSD Beta is still a private club by invitation only.

I don't think Elon is counting hitting curbs as an accident. It is too minor. He just means no serious accident like hitting another car, pedestrian or crashing the car. And in context, I don't even think Elon is referring to the safety of FSD Beta per se. I think the "no accidents" is more a reference to the safety of Early Access. Elon is trying to reassure regulators that Tesla is not being reckless with how they are testing FSD Beta, that they are making sure testers are attentive and kicking out testers who are not sufficiently attentive.

 

[DaveG_NJ]

I’ll go with nagging message counts for $100, Alex.

Elon confirmed yesterday that the interior camera is used to assess driver attention and Beta testers have been kicked out of the program. Begs the question, "Why the hand on wheel nag then?"

 

[paaltio]

Elon confirmed yesterday that the interior camera is used to assess driver attention and Beta testers have been kicked out of the program. Begs the question, "Why the hand on wheel nag then?"

Perhaps they don’t feel the camera monitoring is accurate enough for second-by-second analysis of attention, but it works fine for getting a general sense of driver attentiveness?

And also given the sudden nature of mistakes the FSD Beta can make in e.g. left turns with multiple lanes, it seems like a good idea to have people actually have their hand on the steering wheel, not ”only” paying attention.

 

[Dan D.]

Elon's vague reply of "yes" to the question that not paying attention is dangerous does not really prove anything about Tesla's safety plan. There are no officially submitted numbers of people running FSD Beta and no reported numbers of who has been kicked off, if and for what reasons.

Most likely he's saying they are acting tough to attempt to prove they are running a responsible testing program. Where's the actual proof.

I'll answer with a quote from Mad Max 2:
Big Rebecca: [to Papagallo] Words, just words. You're going to die for a pipe-dream

 

[dckiwi]

Anyone think they’re going to be driving around with the FSD beta next weekend?

 

[goRt]

Anyone think they’re going to be driving around with the FSD beta next weekend?

The 2000 who already have it, the rest of us in an April

 

[diplomat33]

Anyone think they’re going to be driving around with the FSD beta next weekend?

Not me. I think the "button" may happen in May if we are lucky.

 

[dckiwi]

The 2000 who already have it, the rest of us in an April

Yeah it all depends how we interpret his recent tweet about an April release.

It would be lame if the button just never appeared with no further clarification, but he’s done worse in the past....

 

[EVNow]

Second, doesn't it feel like Elon is just making up the FSD rollout plan as he goes along? It's been almost 5 years since they started selling FSD. I would think they would have devoted a few meetings to how they were going to gradually roll it out to customers once it was ready. It's almost as if he hasn't thought about this at all. And so in the space of a few hours he went from 'we're gonna double and then 10x the beta group' to 'contact us if you want it' (what does that even mean?) to 'you know what, we're just going to add a button so everyone can download it next week'.

LOL.

First of all what is the meaning of “ready” ?

Second, if you want a very organized company you should wait for Apple ( esp. their EV program) and Google (Waymo that covers a quarter of a 30k suburb after 10 years).

 

[EVNow]

Not me. I think the "button" may happen in May if we are lucky.

I had not paid attention to this button thing.

I was fearing Musk was losing his grip - but he proves again that he is the master of bizarre.

Button may be presented at random to people who fit the criteria until they reach the required number ? Makes it more exciting than a preselected early access panel.

 

[dgatwood]

Not me. I think the "button" may happen in May if we are lucky.

July, maybe. Next year, definitely.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I had not paid attention to this button thing.

I was fearing Musk was losing his grip - but he proves again that he is the master of bizarre.

Button may be presented at random to people who fit the criteria until they reach the required number ? Makes it more exciting than a preselected early access panel.

I’m of the opinion that the button will make an appearance sometime before the end of March for all people who have purchased FSD, in the US. (Someone above convinced me based on the 8.3 release that is claimed to be coming soon (which is not a significant release I guess).) But, I wouldn’t be THAT surprised if that turned out to be wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time something had not panned out as promised! I just have to come down on one side of the prediction, so that’s what I think will happen based on available info.

So, it seems to me that FSD buyers are very close now to receiving a beta Level 2 system (which I expect to be slightly more useful than Smart Summon in utility - so not too useful, except for someone who actually wants to be a beta tester). It’ll be interesting to see if that actually happens though. It would be a potentially significant event, though it won’t tell us much about level of progress towards the end goal (that may not even be that clear after the release). But it would be more informative than nothing at all!

<Checks Elon’s Twitter one last time>
...
<Clicks Post Reply>

 

[rxlawdude]

because while I have a solid grip and I'm ready to take over faster than the people with the ill-advised bottom grip, there's very little torque on the wheel becau

I’m of the opinion that the button will make an appearance sometime before the end of March for all people who have purchased FSD, in the US.

...

So, it seems to me that FSD buyers are very close now to receiving a beta Level 2 system (which I expect to be slightly more useful than Smart Summon in utility - so not too useful, except for someone who actually wants to be a beta tester). It’ll be interesting to see if that actually happens though. It would be a potentially significant event, though it won’t tell us much about level of progress towards the end goal (that may not even be that clear after the release). But it would be more informative than nothing at all!

<Checks Elon’s Twitter one last time>
...
<Clicks Post Reply>

I hope you're right, Alan.

 

[azred]

Anyone think they’re going to be driving around with the FSD beta next weekend?

My car will be operating as a robotaxi next weekend, so no, I won’t be driving around with Beta FSD.

 

[Snuffysasa]

I also think the "download beta" button will come around the end of March

It may not download it right away for everyone who presses it though

 

[dgatwood]

I’m of the opinion that the button will make an appearance sometime before the end of March for all people who have purchased FSD, in the US. (Someone above convinced me based on the 8.3 release that is claimed to be coming soon (which is not a significant release I guess).) But, I wouldn’t be THAT surprised if that turned out to be wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time something had not panned out as promised! I just have to come down on one side of the prediction, so that’s what I think will happen based on available info.

I'd just about be willing to place an actual dollar bet that I won't.

My car got a software update last week that was still a 2020 build, and I doubt I'm the only one. Despite choosing "Advanced", I'm consistently running many months behind, and have been consistently months behind since long before they added the seemingly non-functional "Advanced" button.

Even if everybody else gets it this week, I doubt I'll see it much before July, if not later. It's really starting to get annoying.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I hope you're right, Alan.

Me too! It’s unusual for me to “believe” Elon like this. It’s not exactly trust, but I hope it is not misplaced. It just seems like things have progressed to the point where an exceedingly weird rollout like this could occur.

I'd just about be willing to place an actual dollar bet that I won't.

My car got a software update last week that was still a 2020 build, and I doubt I'm the only one. Despite choosing "Advanced", I'm consistently running many months behind, and have been consistently months behind since long before they added the seemingly non-functional "Advanced" button.

Even if everybody else gets it this week, I doubt I'll see it much before July, if not later. It's really starting to get annoying.

That’s funny. What model year/type of car do you have?

 

[rbbos88]

Same. Let's say they really did make it available to everyone who has purchased FSD. Do we have any idea how many potential vehicles that is? I know that Tesla has sold somewhere north of 1 million vehicles, and as of 2019 more than half a million of them have AP2+ hardware: Over half a million Tesla electric cars have Autopilot 2 - what's the big deal?

Even if it was 20% FSD uptake, that would be 100,000 vehicles. Is Tesla really prepared to expand their beta from 1,000 users (even that number is suspect at the moment) to 100,000? Seems like an incredibly bold move after being very reserved for the first couple of months.....

FSD runs between 20-25% of buyers, I believe. Agree no way they would roll out 200,000 cars with this Beta version. It will happen over months; I’m hoping by June (I was supposed to be in the EAP for switching to an M3P in June 2018, but nothing has happened on that).