New tesla 70D owner!

[kuttakamina]

S4WRXTTCS, finally a voice of reason. I can't for the life of me figure out, why this technical marvel cannot work around the requirement of a 12v battery.
And the other reliability issues make it sound worse than a ford.

Few things I'd like to add,
- The nagging reliability issues (yes there are many!), are largely compensated by Tesla's excellent customer service SO FAR!
- The customer service requires them to spend money like a drunk sailor. Money that they have right now, stock market is up, Tesla stock is up.
- Money they have mostly because of tax laws - cars are artificially 7-10% cheaper, more in other countries, and the carbon credit thing they do.
- Ownership of a Model S or X is going to get more expensive as more and more insurance companies are realizing how absurdly expensive these cars are to fix.
- Tax breaks are ending - Norway their second largest market after USA, is ending them (I said this 2 years ago, predicting 2015 will be the end of it, and the Tesla fanboys said I was an idiot). Most states are ending them, and Federal tax credits will end by end of 2016.
- Not much traction in China. And only so many 100K cars USA can absorb. Model 3 is still 5 years away if you consider ModelX had a planned release date of late 2013
- The next government may not be as favorable to Tesla.
- Market is guaranteed to tank over the next 2-3 years. 20-40% correction is a given.
- Other manufacturers with a better sales and service network will introduce compelling EVs, they already have. Acura NSX, BMW i8 etc. Its only going to get more competitive. Even the 2016 Volt albeit not in the same ballgame as Tesla is a compelling car.
- The gigafactory will need a 10-14bn $ investment. The DOE loan - which was the key reason why Tesla survived and Fisker didn't, was 1/2bn in perspective.

Long story short, fast forward a few years,
- Tesla's customer service is bound to get worse as more cars are added, less money to spend, and well it is already apparent in their sales.
- The car albeit a technical miracle, drives like a dream, is far from perfect.
- And the resale value of these cars has held up so far, but I am fairly certain it will change for the worse.

I'm not spending on anything more than a 70d inventory .. but I realize there are people who can afford a P85d for S&G and enjoy every bit of it. More power to them, I'm happy for you, I hope you'll give me a ride for fun

 

[techmaven]

I'm really not sure where you get some of what you write:

- The nagging reliability issues (yes there are many!), are largely compensated by Tesla's excellent customer service SO FAR!
- The customer service requires them to spend money like a drunk sailor. Money that they have right now, stock market is up, Tesla stock is up.

Ah, no. The warranty holdback is not all that high. Tesla reserves $2,715 per vehicle for expected warranty work, which includes all of the 4 year standard warranty and the 8 year powertrain/battery warranty.

- Money they have mostly because of tax laws - cars are artificially 7-10% cheaper, more in other countries, and the carbon credit thing they do.

I have a problem with your characterization of "mostly" since you contradict yourself... the amount is small, so it can't be "mostly." ZEV credits are not the same thing as carbon credits. Nissan Leafs are 25 to 30% cheaper, as you say artificially. However, this barely compensates for the externalities of the gas guzzlers that emit high amounts of both fine particulate pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Also, the rules of the market were largely established well before Tesla entered the market. Should Tesla be penalized for taking any Schedule 129 deductions? Or any tax deductions at all?

- Tax breaks are ending - Norway their second largest market after USA, is ending them (I said this 2 years ago, predicting 2015 will be the end of it, and the Tesla fanboys said I was an idiot). Most states are ending them, and Federal tax credits will end by end of 2016.

Sources? I think you are flat out wrong.

- Not much traction in China. And only so many 100K cars USA can absorb. Model 3 is still 5 years away if you consider ModelX had a planned release date of late 2013

China is Tesla's 2rd largest market, selling between 4,000 and 4,500 vehicles last year. There were more cars sold there than Norway last year, although it is very close and they trade places at #2 and #3. Therefore, "not much traction" is only relative to the initial expectations of 10k or so. But at least 1 in 8 Teslas sold last year was in China. Further, have you done *any* market research? The $75k+ SUV market in the U.S. is huge and Tesla is also able to expand the traditional $75k+ market. A lot of ex-Prius owners are among the current Tesla owners.

- The next government may not be as favorable to Tesla.
- Market is guaranteed to tank over the next 2-3 years. 20-40% correction is a given.

Maybe, maybe not.

- Other manufacturers with a better sales and service network will introduce compelling EVs, they already have. Acura NSX, BMW i8 etc. Its only going to get more competitive. Even the 2016 Volt albeit not in the same ballgame as Tesla is a compelling car.

Ah, no.

- The gigafactory will need a 10-14bn $ investment. The DOE loan - which was the key reason why Tesla survived and Fisker didn't, was 1/2bn in perspective.

What?? Maybe a total of Gigafactories #1 through 3. DoE ATVM loan was paid off. Your knowledge of this history is tenuous at best. Fisker ran into problems and couldn't fully drawn down their ATVM loan. Did you happen to forget Nissan's $1.4 billion ATVM loan, or Ford's $5.9 billion dollar ATVM loan? Or how about the roughly $11.2 billion dollar GM bailout end cost? How about Chrysler's $1.3 billion dollar bailout cost? It would have been better for all of us to have given Tesla at least Chrysler's portion.

Really not sure where you are getting your "facts" ... you seem to spend too much time reading dubious financial articles written by Tesla short sellers.

 

[vdiv]

Speaking of insurance rates what do they look like for the 70D in the US? Do insurance companies make much of a distinction between the P85D and the 70D or are they all "insane"? I'm too scared to ask for a quote.

 

[kuttakamina]

Can't argue with fanboys not going to either . I'm sure of my stance, you are sure of yours, that's what makes a market.
Still a sweet car though, minus the reliability problems, agree to agree on that.

 

[WarpedOne]

Can't argue with fanboys

Will introduce compelling EVs, they already have. Acura NSX, BMW i8 etc.

What is there left to argue when one calls i8 an EV?

 

[Cyclone]

Speaking of insurance rates what do they look like for the 70D in the US? Do insurance companies make much of a distinction between the P85D and the 70D or are they all "insane"? I'm too scared to ask for a quote.

Travelers in NC only has Model S and Model S Performance in their system. So 40 / 60 / 70D / 85 / 85D should all rate the same.

 

[kushari]

I usually like to get technical. But not this time. I'm just going to enjoy my 70d when it arrives. All the technical I can learn step by step when using the car on a daily basis.

 

[techmaven]

Can't argue with fanboys not going to either . I'm sure of my stance, you are sure of yours, that's what makes a market.
Still a sweet car though, minus the reliability problems, agree to agree on that.

Ah, you have many facts plainly wrong. It's not a matter of projections or things that you can have an opinion, like whether you think the multi-coat red is too ostentatious. No, you are plainly wrong on a number of counts where there is objective truth.

 

[kuttakamina]

Ah, you have many facts plainly wrong. It's not a matter of projections or things that you can have an opinion, like whether you think the multi-coat red is too ostentatious. No, you are plainly wrong on a number of counts where there is objective truth.

Still not arguing still pretty sure of my stance .

 

[travwill]

Speaking of insurance rates what do they look like for the 70D in the US? Do insurance companies make much of a distinction between the P85D and the 70D or are they all "insane"? I'm too scared to ask for a quote.

Insurance in the USA seems reasonable. I quoted adding my 70D to my policy with large carrier, Progressive, and it was minimal increase. I quoted replacing a VW Touareg Hybrid with Model S D70 and it went up like $100 for 6 months total. We pay $116 a month it seems for a policy with a newer BMW X5 and 2015 Model S D70 on it, with high coverage amounts 100/300k, etc. That is also in pretty pricy Chicago.

I did noticed that many insurance companies can't recognize the VINs fully yet, specially D70 VIN, so you have to make certain you are getting quoted for a more comparable Model S versus Model S Performance (that is what Progressive had).

Enjoy!

 

[Max*]

Anyone can make WAG predictions and claim to be correct. Actually your prediction is not 2 years old, and your previous prediction was for the US and it was flat out wrong...

Not that far fetched. By early 2015, the ModelS fever will have subsided and prices of used ModelS's will come to realistic levels.

Here are some things to consider that will lower the demand for Model S's
- Tax benefits in Norway will expire, which is currently it's biggest market.
- Tax benefits in USA will expire later in 2015.
- Model X will divert attention, and so will Model 3 (people will smaller budgets will wait, rather than stretch).
- Other manufacturers with their PHEV's will offer viable alternatives for literally half the price.
- Wildcard - China demand may compensate for all this. But China has their own EV manufacturers who may come up with something far cheaper for the chinese customer.

Finally, people will begin to come to their senses, and the false cloud of "Model S is a perfect car" will disperse.
Here are some things about Model S that are not perfect,

- Repairs and body work are extremely expensive. Insurance companies are only beginning to appreciate the risk there, and this will drive up the insurance costs of Model S also (already happening).... btw Tesla Roadster insurance was a joke for the same reason.
- It is a very big car and very wide. You will get dings, and every now and then you will back into a pole. So you will need that expensive insurance with low deductible (or pay out of pocket). Also, in case of repairs, the car sits waiting for parts a lot longer than since only Tesla can manufacture the replacement panels. So factor in rental costs also.
- The interiors in a $50K Acura are far superior than a Model S. Seriously, next time you sit in a Model S, photoshop the LCD screen out, and what you have are interiors comparable to a Honda Civic.
- The car, esp. the 21" wheels, eats tires. This depends on how you drive of course.
- The car requires fewer trips to the dealer (no oil changes), but the trips are expensive, unless you buy an expensive maint. plan. ahead of time.
- And the car has reliability issues, like any other car. What a shock, it's just a car.
- Plus, there are some imperfections, the seats aren't the best, the sunshade is tiny, and getting in and out of the car, you bump around the edges. Old farts have money to afford Model S's, and Old farts prefer the egress of a Mercedes S class (or similar). Also Old farts don't like digital LCD screens. What you are seeing now, is the initial hype/newness. It will subside.

Plus, a lot of those who spend $100K on a new car, will have another $100K in 2-3 years to spend on the next toy.
So early 2015, you will see 2012 Model S's with 20-30K miles for around 50K.

Early 2015 is just a few months away :smile:

S4WRXTTCS, finally a voice of reason. I can't for the life of me figure out, why this technical marvel cannot work around the requirement of
a 12v battery.
And the other reliability issues make it sound worse than a ford.

Few things I'd like to add,
- The nagging reliability issues (yes there are many!), are largely compensated by Tesla's excellent customer service SO FAR!
- The customer service requires them to spend money like a drunk sailor. Money that they have right now, stock market is up, Tesla stock is up.
- Money they have mostly because of tax laws - cars are artificially 7-10% cheaper, more in other countries, and the carbon credit thing they do.
- Ownership of a Model S or X is going to get more expensive as more and more insurance companies are realizing how absurdly expensive these cars are to fix.
- Tax breaks are ending - Norway their second largest market after USA, is ending them (I said this 2 years ago, predicting 2015 will be the end of it, and the Tesla fanboys said I was an idiot). Most states are ending them, and Federal tax credits will end by end of 2016.
- Not much traction in China. And only so many 100K cars USA can absorb. Model 3 is still 5 years away if you consider ModelX had a planned release date of late 2013 :smile:
- The next government may not be as favorable to Tesla.
- Market is guaranteed to tank over the next 2-3 years. 20-40% correction is a given.
- Other manufacturers with a better sales and service network will introduce compelling EVs, they already have. Acura NSX, BMW i8 etc. Its only going to get more competitive. Even the 2016 Volt albeit not in the same ballgame as Tesla is a compelling car.
- The gigafactory will need a 10-14bn $ investment. The DOE loan - which was the key reason why Tesla survived and Fisker didn't, was 1/2bn in perspective.

Long story short, fast forward a few years,
- Tesla's customer service is bound to get worse as more cars are added, less money to spend, and well it is already apparent in their sales.
- The car albeit a technical miracle, drives like a dream, is far from perfect.
- And the resale value of these cars has held up so far, but I am fairly certain it will change for the worse.

I'm not spending on anything more than a 70d inventory :smile: .. but I realize there are people who can afford a P85d for S&G and enjoy every bit of it. More power to them, I'm happy for you, I hope you'll give me a ride for fun :smile:

 

[vdiv]

Cyclone and travwill,

Thank you for your insight. Ran an online quote with Geico (current insurance for my 2012 Volt). The quote did not have the D models so I picked an S 85. Assuming replacing the Volt with a leased Model S the premium will increase from $380 per 6 months to $696 with the necessary increases in coverage limits. The collision coverage with a $1,000 deductible alone is $435.

Interestingly enough I ran the same quote, this time with an S 60, and the premium went down to $639, collision coverage down to $384.

This actually seems reasonable.

 

[kuttakamina]

Max*,

Thanks for looking up the history - and while hindsight is 20/20, forward looking predictions are excellent if you hit the 30% accuracy mark. And I do think I did better than 30% there. Indeed I was not correct about some of the predictions in my previous post, just as I will not be correct about some of my predictions in my previous post.
But I was correct about a few. The part about Tax benefits in USA expiring in 2015, I was hoping Tesla would be able to increase their production capacity and hit their quotas - that hasn't happened, I am puzzled why!! They had demand, they had space, they had funds, why not cash in!? But they didn't.

Still, the overall vector sum of my previous post was, used 2012 Model S's with 20-30K miles will be around 50K.
They aren't 50K, but they are around 60K on the used market.
Do remember though, when I wrote that, used Model S's were selling at a premium to new prices.
So predicting that Model S prices would fall, back then, was met by animosity, just like my previous post was.
Arguing with fanboyism gives you stronger lungs, not much else.

Given my prediction, I delayed my planned purchase to early 2015 - and it was the right thing to do. I do make plenty of wrong decisions too, but this decision was correct.

Now, the post I made earlier today.
I still stick with my overall vector sum prediction, which is,

Tesla as a company has difficult times ahead,
- Their excellent customer service will falter.
- You will see fanboyism subside, and customers complain louder about reliability issues.
- The demand for Model S's will subside given increasing competition, higher insurance costs and possibly less favorable political/tax/regulation environment going forward.

My whole point is, Tesla is surrounded by massive fanboyism.
It is important for me atleast (who does not have unlimited play funds), to consider a sane argument on both sides of the equation before making such a huge purchase.
The fabulous Model S isn't perfect. This beautiful princess does have a skidmarked underwear that we continue to ignore.

All that said, I do wish and hope Tesla all the best. A 100% American company, no pollution, no gas - I WISH my tax money was put towards building the gigafactory and not bailing out government motors. But if my wishes were horses.. we'd all be flying electric planes to work.

I see you ordered 70d - that is exactly what I will do too. But I will order an inventory 70d at the end of the year (most probably, still slightly confused).

---
Added Later: The 50K prediction for used Model S's - well, if CPOs are at 60's with a 4 year warranty, only a matter of time before private sellers sell in 50's. And for S&G, look at the responses people had FOR WANT; Model S P85 $50k - Page 5

- - - Updated - - -

One more bearish trend btw - US$ is on the rise and will be on an overall rise pattern over the next 2 years. This means Tesla's other two big markets, Europe and China (when it happens), will find Tesla's become more expensive. Unless Tesla opens manufacturing in Europe or China, which I fully expect to happen. But a new manufacturing facility is more expense.

One thing I did not predict back then is how much Oil would fall. Damn I got burnt on that one. Still a 100K car is relatively less affected by a $1 price drop in gas. But the Model 3 will be,.. that is when/if we see a Model 3 (2020?) ..

 

[Max*]

Max*,

Thanks for looking up the history - and while hindsight is 20/20, forward looking predictions are excellent if you hit the 30% accuracy mark. And I do think I did better than 30% there. Indeed I was not correct about some of the predictions in my previous post, just as I will not be correct about some of my predictions in my previous post.
But I was correct about a few. The part about Tax benefits in USA expiring in 2015, I was hoping Tesla would be able to increase their production capacity and hit their quotas - that hasn't happened, I am puzzled why!! They had demand, they had space, they had funds, why not cash in!? But they didn't.

Still, the overall vector sum of my previous post was, used 2012 Model S's with 20-30K miles will be around 50K.
They aren't 50K, but they are around 60K on the used market.
Do remember though, when I wrote that, used Model S's were selling at a premium to new prices.
So predicting that Model S prices would fall, back then, was met by animosity, just like my previous post was.
Arguing with fanboyism gives you stronger lungs, not much else.

Given my prediction, I delayed my planned purchase to early 2015 - and it was the right thing to do. I do make plenty of wrong decisions too, but this decision was correct.

Now, the post I made earlier today.
I still stick with my overall vector sum prediction, which is,

Tesla as a company has difficult times ahead,
- Their excellent customer service will falter.
- You will see fanboyism subside, and customers complain louder about reliability issues.
- The demand for Model S's will subside given increasing competition, higher insurance costs and possibly less favorable political/tax/regulation environment going forward.

My whole point is, Tesla is surrounded by massive fanboyism.
It is important for me atleast (who does not have unlimited play funds), to consider a sane argument on both sides of the equation before making such a huge purchase.
The fabulous Model S isn't perfect. This beautiful princess does have a skidmarked underwear that we continue to ignore.

All that said, I do wish and hope Tesla all the best. A 100% American company, no pollution, no gas - I WISH my tax money was put towards building the gigafactory and not bailing out government motors. But if my wishes were horses.. we'd all be flying electric planes to work.

I see you ordered 70d - that is exactly what I will do too. But I will order an inventory 70d at the end of the year (most probably, still slightly confused).

---
Added Later: The 50K prediction for used Model S's - well, if CPOs are at 60's with a 4 year warranty, only a matter of time before private sellers sell in 50's. And for S&G, look at the responses people had FOR WANT; Model S P85 $50k - Page 5

I'm not disagreeing with ALL of your assessment (just some of it...), and the only reason I brought up your previous post is that you made an inflammatory statement and then acted like "I'm always 100% correct, and I'm not discussing it with you fanboys. neeneer neeneer".

And I went between the an Audi S4 and the 70D and 85D for a long time... decided I'd give Tesla a shot (knowing all the... concerns/issues) but also decided that the $10k difference for the 85D isn't worth it to me, we can drive my wife's SUV if we ever need the range (shocking! I know! Someone suggesting driving an ICE car AFTER buying a Tesla! And not starting a thread about how horrible ICE cars are!)

 

[kuttakamina]

I am never 100% correct, but I will not argue senselessly with fanboys either. But I guess I could have been more polite. Apologies for that :redface:
I'm glad you made an educated purchase after looking at all the concerns and issues. Are you planning on buying the service plan for $1900?

PS: Speaking of reliability issues - Consumer Reports' Tesla Model S P85D Breaks Before Testing Begins - Consumer Reports

It baffles my mind why they can't fix these minor annoying issues over 4 years now. Seriously! I won't be using "AutoPilot" without a bucket load of caution.

 

[Max*]

I am never 100% correct, but I will not argue senselessly with fanboys either. But I guess I could have been more polite. Apologies for that :redface:
I'm glad you made an educated purchase after looking at all the concerns and issues. Are you planning on buying the service plan for $1900?

Nope. I see no point in paying $600 ($475 with plan) for the first year when all they're going to do is replace my wipers and apply a few TSBs... I plan on coming in on the 2nd and 4th years (brake fluid and battery fluid replacement), unless I can figure out how to do those on my own...

 

[steph280]

One more bearish trend btw - US$ is on the rise and will be on an overall rise pattern over the next 2 years. This means Tesla's other two big markets, Europe and China (when it happens), will find Tesla's become more expensive. Unless Tesla opens manufacturing in Europe or China, which I fully expect to happen. But a new manufacturing facility is more expense.

Tesla is already considered by many Chinese consumers as "a deal of the century," as it is the first direct sales model which bypass the middleman that usually markup import vehicles by up to 200%. Even if the price do go up, it will probably have little or no effect to the increase in demand. And if they really build a factory in China, it will probably become a world wide primary production site with its cheap labor and near non-existent environmental laws. Why do you think Apple can make their products affordable for everyone?

 

[Fiver]

Why do you think Apple can make their products affordable for everyone?

Is there another company called Apple I'm unaware of? Last time I checked Apple products weren't all that cheap...

(Before I get jumped on, I'm typing on Macbook Pro here.)

 

[steph280]

If you think the current Apple prices are steep, imagine the same product being made in Silicon Valley...

 

[kushari]

Is there another company called Apple I'm unaware of? Last time I checked Apple products weren't all that cheap...

(Before I get jumped on, I'm typing on Macbook Pro here.)

I agree with you. High sticker price, but low tco (total cost of ownership), just like the tesla. I often make the comparison.