Ontario EV Rebates Cancelled July 11, 2018

[McFlurri]

Sorry, but this is still wrong. I've been driving EVs for 5+ years now, and while the savings vs gas are substantial, its nowhere near 10x like you claim...unless you are comparing this to a v12 pickup truck, which is hardly fair. From my experience I would estimate the savings is about 3-5x less than gas (depends heavily on the price of gas at the time as well as time of year and how aggressively you drive). Supporting evidence to this from the Tesla website (click on how they calculate the gas savings over the life of the car...)

View attachment 318590

Also, when I was talking about the efficiency that is the efficiency of the charger in the car (yes, the thing you plug into the wall is not the charger.....). The charger inside the car is basically an AC/DC converter (batteries store and run DC), and that has a loss associated with it. Thats about 15% (I've measured this from the wall to the car many, many times...not on a Tesla but on a 2014 and 2017 Volt, as well as a 2017 Bolt). Also, depending on the battery temperature, the thermal management system may kick in to cool down/warm up the battery during charging, so 15% is pretty accurate. Has nothing to do with the power company and their transmission efficiency...

Finally, you made another common mistake referring to the battery in the model 3 as having '75 kW'....kW is a measure of work, kWh is what the battery capacity is measured in. It has nothing to do with the SOC or how long it takes to charge, average price of electricity is $0.12 - 0.13 /kWh. If you take 10 kWh from the wall it costs $1.20 regardless of if you take 1 hour or 10 hours to do it, and because of the AC/DC conversion loss in the charger (in the car) you will actually end up with only ~ 8.7 kWh of useable charge in the battery while paying for 10 kWh of useage.

What if you only pay $0.065/kWh?

 

[pcons]

Those r all US numbers tho. Dollar amounts higher here due to exchange, and gas way more expensive here.

Not US numbers, its from the Tesla Canada website. They assume conservatively that over the next 5 years the average price of gas is $1.10/km. They are using km and litres in their text, not miles and gallons. Its converted to CDN already....they just factored in Doug Ford's "10 cents per litre of gas savings"

 

[pcons]

What if you only pay $0.065/kWh?

Impossible. Once you factor in taxes, delivery, etc, no one is paying that low in canada (well....at least in ontario...maybe quebec has it that cheap?). Or maybe if you have solar....but the calculation from Tesla's website uses 0.13/kwh as an average electricity price across Canada, which is pretty much what I said in my original response a few pages back.

The savings vs ICE cars are great, but lets not fool ourselves into thinking the savings will pay off the car in 5 years....if that were true, you can be damned sure Tesla would market it that way. But the above screen cap I included clearly states the assumptions and that it will save ~ 3x vs an ICE car, and about 6-9k over 5 years if you drive 15-25k/year.

 

[Burlburt]

Impossible. Once you factor in taxes, delivery, etc, no one is paying that low in canada (well....at least in ontario...maybe quebec has it that cheap?). Or maybe if you have solar....but the calculation from Tesla's website uses 0.13/kwh as an average electricity price across Canada, which is pretty much what I said in my original response a few pages back.

The savings vs ICE cars are great, but lets not fool ourselves into thinking the savings will pay off the car in 5 years....if that were true, you can be damned sure Tesla would market it that way. But the above screen cap I included clearly states the assumptions and that it will save ~ 3x vs an ICE car, and about 6-9k over 5 years if you drive 15-25k/year.

Why are you talking about this on this forum?

 

[Bluewish]

Impossible. Once you factor in taxes, delivery, etc, no one is paying that low in canada (well....at least in ontario...maybe quebec has it that cheap?). Or maybe if you have solar....but the calculation from Tesla's website uses 0.13/kwh as an average electricity price across Canada, which is pretty much what I said in my original response a few pages back.

I am on APP plan and paying $0.02/kwh between 12 to 6am. After adding taxes and delivery, I think the total cost is still below $0.065. I didn't use supercharger a lot because of battery degraded but technically I can pay $0 for charging my vehicle as long as I owe it.

 

[Samina]

Impossible. Once you factor in taxes, delivery, etc, no one is paying that low in canada (well....at least in ontario...maybe quebec has it that cheap?). Or maybe if you have solar....but the calculation from Tesla's website uses 0.13/kwh as an average electricity price across Canada, which is pretty much what I said in my original response a few pages back.

The savings vs ICE cars are great, but lets not fool ourselves into thinking the savings will pay off the car in 5 years....if that were true, you can be damned sure Tesla would market it that way. But the above screen cap I included clearly states the assumptions and that it will save ~ 3x vs an ICE car, and about 6-9k over 5 years if you drive 15-25k/year.

I agree. This discussion doesn’t belong on this forum. It’s about the cancellation of the rebate not the the performance or costs.

 

[jkirkwood001]

Tesla (TSLA) stock down as top analyst sees Model 3 cancellations increasing, Tesla denies

So he claimed there is a 24% cancellation. I think the figure may be true in Ontario.

Tesla may/want to do something to keep us, I don't mind jumping back in if they provide some kind of incentive.

I know the CEO is reading our forum. Hello there!!!

Yeah, there's no mention of how they got the 24% figure. Tesla Is quite secretive about the reservations. Is it anything more than pure speculation? In which case, I could "speculate" they're adding reservations! Also, on NA, they are no more "reservations" taken, only orders.

This is FUD IMHO.

 

[pcons]

Tesla (TSLA) stock down as top analyst sees Model 3 cancellations increasing, Tesla denies

So he claimed there is a 24% cancellation. I think the figure may be true in Ontario.

Tesla may/want to do something to keep us, I don't mind jumping back in if they provide some kind of incentive.

I know the CEO is reading our forum. Hello there!!!

I was at tesla Oakville yesterday and asked if they had cancellations and the rep said yes they have had a number of them, but then those cars just get re allocated to others on the list. It's not like they are losing sales right now and people are still waiting for SR.

He also said they were delivering about 5 M3/day now, and expect that to ramp to about 20 (just at Oakville). There were two being prepped for pickup in the showroom plus about another 10 in the lot....

Bottom line, this car is going to crush everything in its category. All tesla needs to do is meet the unprecedented demand.

 

[ben1628]

I was at tesla Oakville yesterday and asked if they had cancellations and the rep said yes they have had a number of them, but then those cars just get re allocated to others on the list. It's not like they are losing sales right now and people are still waiting for SR.

He also said they were delivering about 5 M3/day now, and expect that to ramp to about 20 (just at Oakville). There were two being prepped for pickup in the showroom plus about another 10 in the lot....

Bottom line, this car is going to crush everything in its category. All tesla needs to do is meet the unprecedented demand.

I have no doubt that those cancellations would just get picked up by the next guy. That is given. I have also no doubt that Model 3 will be the best EV seller in that price range this year. However, those sales would dry up pretty quickly if there is no incentive; just like USA.

Mind you, I think Tesla is more worried about the Fed incentive in USA than here. I think they are kicking themselves for being so forth coming to open up the order to everyone in USA/Canada on July 10. I strongly believe that is the trigger for MTO to modify the wording on the press release. Remember, initially they said any contracts on or before June 29 would qualify; then they modify it to July 10; then they target Tesla when they open the M3 orders for everyone. We would have been fine

All of a sudden, there is hundreds more EV cars that will meet the criteria instead of tens...

 

[BKR1986]

If the Ontario rebate is gone beyond any hope of extension, then you have nothing to lose (other than a slightly longer wait) and everything to gain by sitting on your hands and seeing what develops federally.

Couldn’t agree more!

 

[felixculpas]

Who exactly are the "people" in Doug Ford's "for the people" mantra?

The clearest dividing line among Ford supporters was their wealth, according to Erin Kelly, CEO of Advanced Symbolics. The Tories, she said, “branded themselves as the working class party but, in actual fact, it was the wealthiest people who voted for them.”

The biggest motivator in the election was change. Coletto’s polling consistently showed that 80 per cent or more of voters wanted to turn the page on 15 years of Liberal rule.

Where his base lives is an indication of why those issues were so important, according to Bricker. The fastest growing population in Ontario is people who live in “car-commuting communities,” he said. And Statistics Canada data shows that the time they spend getting to work is only expanding.

Rightly or wrongly, he said they felt targeted by things like the Liberal’s cap-and-trade program, which they thought directly targeted them when they had no option but to drive for work. And that is the pulse Ford had his finger on.

 

[felixculpas]

Tertulian said: ↑
If the Ontario rebate is gone beyond any hope of extension, then you have nothing to lose (other than a slightly longer wait) and everything to gain by sitting on your hands and seeing what develops federally.

Couldn’t agree more!

This has been my strategy since the 13th though I've been very supportive of efforts on all fronts.

I think we've definitely proven (again) to Tesla that regardless of obstacles, even significant monetary ones, they are still going to be able to sell their vehicles. This in itself would remove any motivation I would think, to throw us a bone for our governmental hardships.

I'm sure many people thought it was so unfair that Ontario had a 14k rebate and possibly because of that, refused to buy an EV but now that the playing field is more level in Canada, perhaps sales in other provinces will actually increase because of this. Just a thought...

 

[Samina]

Has anyone seen this?

http://www.cela.ca/sites/cela.ca/files/EBR-Application-for-Review_cap-and-trade.pdf

This was submitted on July 18th. Bottom line, they can be prosecuted. Just because it’s the provincial government does not mean they can bulldoze people. They are still accountable.

I strongly suggest to call the Ontario Ombudsman for those that have not done so already. Tel No: 1-800-263-1830.

I am also going to call CELA on Monday.

 

[sitter_k]

Who exactly are the "people" in Doug Ford's "for the people" mantra?

The clearest dividing line among Ford supporters was their wealth, according to Erin Kelly, CEO of Advanced Symbolics. The Tories, she said, “branded themselves as the working class party but, in actual fact, it was the wealthiest people who voted for them.”

The biggest motivator in the election was change. Coletto’s polling consistently showed that 80 per cent or more of voters wanted to turn the page on 15 years of Liberal rule.

Where his base lives is an indication of why those issues were so important, according to Bricker. The fastest growing population in Ontario is people who live in “car-commuting communities,” he said. And Statistics Canada data shows that the time they spend getting to work is only expanding.

Rightly or wrongly, he said they felt targeted by things like the Liberal’s cap-and-trade program, which they thought directly targeted them when they had no option but to drive for work. And that is the pulse Ford had his finger on.

Makes sense.

not being facetious.

 

[felixculpas]

Ecofiscal’s experts have put together a series of fact sheets to answer all your carbon pricing questions.

 

[noicepls]

Sorry, but this is still wrong. I've been driving EVs for 5+ years now, and while the savings vs gas are substantial, its nowhere near 10x like you claim...unless you are comparing this to a v12 pickup truck, which is hardly fair. From my experience I would estimate the savings is about 3-5x less than gas (depends heavily on the price of gas at the time as well as time of year and how aggressively you drive). Supporting evidence to this from the Tesla website (click on how they calculate the gas savings over the life of the car...)

View attachment 318590

Also, when I was talking about the efficiency that is the efficiency of the charger in the car (yes, the thing you plug into the wall is not the charger.....). The charger inside the car is basically an AC/DC converter (batteries store and run DC), and that has a loss associated with it. Thats about 15% (I've measured this from the wall to the car many, many times...not on a Tesla but on a 2014 and 2017 Volt, as well as a 2017 Bolt). Also, depending on the battery temperature, the thermal management system may kick in to cool down/warm up the battery during charging, so 15% is pretty accurate. Has nothing to do with the power company and their transmission efficiency...

Finally, you made another common mistake referring to the battery in the model 3 as having '75 kW'....kW is a measure of work (1 kW = 1,000 Joules/s), kWh is what the battery capacity is measured in because the units of time cancel out and leave units of Joules...which is energy....ie, 1 kWh = 1,000 Joules/s * 3600 s = 3.6 megajoules. Since the units are large, its easier to call it kWh rather than MJ....

It has nothing to do with the SOC or how long it takes to charge, average price of electricity is $0.12 - 0.13 /kWh. If you take 10 kWh from the wall it costs $1.20 regardless of if you take 1 hour or 10 hours to do it, and because of the AC/DC conversion loss in the charger (in the car) you will actually end up with only ~ 8.7 kWh of useable charge in the battery while paying for 10 kWh of useage.

You can go nitpick all you want in a theoretical world - there are many similar introspectively focused arguments out there trying to inexplicably undermine the reality that EVs incur costs that are a fraction of comparable ICE cars in the motive power costs department, and yes at the 1/10th level even. I am relating my own real world experience, after consulting in-depth with our local power company in Lambton County. Your refence to a 15% loss for the charger (yes, I do know the difference between an onboard charger and an EVSE) is immaterial because that has already been taken into account at the meter, and further adjusted by the power utility company, as I explained but which you missed!. Also, wife and I have been driving an EV for the past 4+ years, which has been a model of astoundingly minimal cost of utility as a city-commuter car, in addition to my Porsche 911 for other driving, which for the same range as my new Model 3 (approx. 500 km), has been known to cost me $108.00 for a fill-up at the rate of $1.45 per litre for 75 litres premium gas, so yes I'm being right on the mark when comparing them. And so what if I typo'd 75kw instead of 75kWh? You chose to focus on this and made a federal case out of it using long-winded techno jargon (Joules/s, megajoules etc.) - focusing on obviously immaterial aspects of practical life events is hardly productive or be able to withstand scrutiny as it merely examines a given margin of error. It does not affect the cost of the commodity or the veracity of my numbers that actually affect the pocket in terms of real dollars. Sheesh. I am sticking to my original costs. Further, my electric utility power rep assures me that an EV with a 75kWH full charge should not incur "any more than 7 or 8 dollars at off-peak" right now. Comparing it to my 911, it is in the ratio of 108/8=13.5. So, the Model 3 is currently costing me 13.5 times less in fuel costs than a comparable ICE's driving distance, which is even better than the 10 times that I thought... And BTW, if you were a Tesla owner and happened to charge at a Tesla Supercharger, you would know that SOC has everything to do with the amount of time it takes to charge the battery - it takes much longer, and costs a lot more, to charge at the initial and upper levels I mentioned. Oh wait, but you are not an actual Tesla owner, which explains a lot.

 

[Burlburt]

Has anyone seen this?

http://www.cela.ca/sites/cela.ca/files/EBR-Application-for-Review_cap-and-trade.pdf

This was submitted on July 18th. Bottom line, they can be prosecuted. Just because it’s the provincial government does not mean they can bulldoze people. They are still accountable.

I strongly suggest to call the Ontario Ombudsman for those that have not done so already. Tel No: 1-800-263-1830.

I am also going to call CELA on Monday.

I sent the document to Ombudsman office after speaking with them

 

[pcons]

You can go nitpick all you want in a theoretical world - there are many similar introspectively focused arguments out there trying to inexplicably undermine the reality that EVs incur costs that are a fraction of comparable ICE cars in the motive power costs department, and yes at the 1/10th level even. I am relating my own real world experience, after consulting in-depth with our local power company in Lambton County. Your refence to a 15% loss for the charger (yes, I do know the difference between an onboard charger and an EVSE) is immaterial because that has already been taken into account at the meter, and further adjusted by the power utility company, as I explained but which you missed!. Also, wife and I have been driving an EV for the past 4+ years, which has been a model of astoundingly minimal cost of utility as a city-commuter car, in addition to my Porsche 911 for other driving, which for the same range as my new Model 3 (approx. 500 km), has been known to cost me $108.00 for a fill-up at the rate of $1.45 per litre for 75 litres premium gas, so yes I'm being right on the mark when comparing them. And so what if I typo'd 75kw instead of 75kWh? You chose to focus on this and made a federal case out of it using long-winded techno jargon (Joules/s, megajoules etc.) - focusing on obviously immaterial aspects of practical life events is hardly productive or be able to withstand scrutiny as it merely examines a given margin of error. It does not affect the cost of the commodity or the veracity of my numbers that actually affect the pocket in terms of real dollars. Sheesh. I am sticking to my original costs. Further, my electric utility power rep assures me that an EV with a 75kWH full charge should not incur "any more than 7 or 8 dollars at off-peak" right now. Comparing it to my 911, it is in the ratio of 108/8=13.5. So, the Model 3 is currently costing me 13.5 times less in fuel costs than a comparable ICE's driving distance, which is even better than the 10 times that I thought... And BTW, if you were a Tesla owner and happened to charge at a Tesla Supercharger, you would know that SOC has everything to do with the amount of time it takes to charge the battery - it takes much longer, and costs a lot more, to charge at the initial and upper levels I mentioned. Oh wait, but you are not an actual Tesla owner, which explains a lot.

Wow...dude, who pissed on your cornflakes this morning?...I hope you got some satisfaction by bragging about the Porsche you own (because mentioning it really has a lot to do with anything).

A few posts ago someone pointed out that this discussion doesn't belong in this thread, which I agree and take responsibility for continuing it...but your rant definitely warrants this response.

Plus, the original question has nothing to do with supercharging fees. You seem confused. Maybe it's time for your afternoon nap so you can recover your mental acuity.

Chill the heck out bro. I guess since I'm not a tesla owner (yet) I don't deserve to speak on this forum? Wow...you really do think of yourself as better than everyone else who isn't fortunate enough to afford a tesla. Keep it up buddy, you're setting a great example for the next generation

 

[felixculpas]

Makes sense.

not being facetious.

Advanced Symbolics Inc, is a company that uses Artificial Intelligence to predict human behaviour. Their data is highly regarded.


Pollsters who spoke with iPolitics were close to unanimous that the biggest cohort of Ford voters were older and wealthier men. They:

• Own their own home
• Drive to work
• Are more likely to be in the private sector
• Live in suburban and rural ridings

But while that’s where Ford held the advantage, Abacus Data CEO David Coletto said Ford’s voter support was “fairly broad.”

“Yes he did better among older voters than younger voters, yes he did better among men than women; but if you look across all demographics and all regions, the victory was pretty broad based,” he said.

The point to this as it relates to this thread is that you will generate very little sympathy for the EHVIP program being ended, regardless of the manner in which it was done...legal challenges notwithstanding.

The feds need to make a statement on what their intent is regarding GHG reduction incentives. If you haven't already done so, I would encourage everyone to email their MP. As one of their constituents you deserve to know how this important topic will be handled. While perhaps not earth shattering, you could also link in the change.org petition that's about to hit the 25k signatures milestone.

 

[felixculpas]

Globe Letters to the Editor (we should have done something there)

Mr. Ford’s action is an expensive appeal to his party’s base. It’s worth noting that approximately 60 per cent of Ontarian voters in the last election chose parties that support carbon pricing, so Mr. Ford’s so-called mandate to kill it is on shaky ground.