Prediction: Model 3 Orders to reach 100k in 24 hours

[ucmndd]

So how's it taste?

Should have worn nicer shoes today.

 

[Roamer]

For comparison, BMW sold about 300k 3 series in Europe and the US in 2015 (evenly split at ~150k each). That was an entire year, with cars actually available and delivered - of the most popular premium/luxury sedan in the world.

I'm all for the Model 3 in every way. I hope Tesla kills it and they sell millions of them. There's undoubtedly pent up demand. But the idea of 100k reservations, at $1000 a pop, in 24 hours, for a car that won't be delivered for ~2 years, is the sort of absurdity that only seems realistic on car forums.

Welcome to TeslaLand. Things just seem to work a little different here. Placed two reservations.

 

[FlatSix911]

6 reservations ... I'm all in as a vote of confidence.

 

[Nixx]

What is the presale count on the bolt?

lmao

 

[ggnykk]

6 reservations ... I'm all in as a vote of confidence.

will you actually buy all six of them?

 

[HankLloydRight]

There's no instrument cluster.

Everything is supposedly on the horizontal 15" touchscreen.


I'm not sure that will go over that well.

 

[cwerdna]

Way too high within 24 hours.

Wow... all I can say is I was obviously dead wrong and the cult of Elon is much stronger than I believed.

I'm blown away by the reservation count and the potential revenue (billions) even if say 2/3rd of those folks drop out and nobody else reserves.

I do wonder if Model 3 could have somewhat of an Osborne effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

It's not a cult and not necessarily about Musk, it's just an infinitely more compelling $35k vehicle than anything currently available.

 

[SageBrush]

I do wonder if Model 3 could have somewhat of an Osborne effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

In two years, perhaps

 

[artsci]

Reviewing this thread the day after it seems a lot of folks might want to retract their lowball predictions

 

[Electroman]

Reviewing this thread the day after it seems a lot of folks might want to retract their lowball predictions

<raises hand> Guilty your honor. I predicted around 10K reservations the first day and 100k by the end of the year. Oh boy, couldn't have been happier to have been so wrong.

But I only promised to eat a bowl of cereals if I am wrong, which I did this morning..

 

[SageBrush]

I wonder if EM is regretting not having picked up another GM factory or three

 

[manitou820]

will you actually buy all six of them?

I've seen a lot of people claiming they pre-ordered a lot of Model 3s. I'm wondering the same thing. How many of these pre-orders will be canceled because they were duplicates or people ordered more than they will actually buy. It might work out in favor of moving me up in the queue.
However, I hope people aren't trying to buy several cars with the intent of flipping if people start paying over sticker when it launches.

 

[jonnyg]

I've seen a lot of people claiming they pre-ordered a lot of Model 3s. I'm wondering the same thing. How many of these pre-orders will be canceled because they were duplicates or people ordered more than they will actually buy. It might work out in favor of moving me up in the queue.
However, I hope people aren't trying to buy several cars with the intent of flipping if people start paying over sticker when it launches.

Was thinking the same thing. It's easy for some people to reserve more than one so that there's an extra for the spouse, kid, mom, grandpa, nanny, dog walker, etc when it's $1k each. But when it comes time to actually plunk down that $35k+ to buy the car, I'd imagine a lot of these extra reservations get canceled. A lot of people could be in different financial situations in 2 years as well, and a car they could have afforded or were hoping to be able to afford in 2018 is no longer the case.

 

[Rockster]

...So it looks like 95% of the orders are from new customers.

At the Dallas Northpark center yesterday morning there were 400-500 people in line at 10:30 am. At that time, I counted approximately 40 Teslas in the parking garage. Assuming all the Tesla owners parked in the same area (and didn't rideshare significantly), that suggests that about 90+% of those in line were new customers.

 

[Bangor Bob]

First year of production will be sold out within days. That's my prediction after the unveil tonight.

Depending on ramp rate, it's likely already sold out until 2019.

 

[tga]

It's easy for some people to reserve more than one so that there's an extra for the spouse, kid, mom, grandpa, nanny, dog walker, etc when it's $1k each.

Except that reservations are non-transferable to the spouse, kid, mom, grandpa, nanny, dog walker, etc.

 

[DrManhattan]

Except that reservations are non-transferable to the spouse, kid, mom, grandpa, nanny, dog walker, etc.

Incorrect, you can certainly transfer reservations to at least your spouse.

 

[deonb]

Where is this reservation counter from?
Tesla has already taken more than 115,000 preorders for the Model 3

Was at 133822 last night at 10pm. What is it on now?

 

[jbcarioca]

Now we need to know how many reservations are coming from BR, SK, NZ and the other new countries. Individually most of those might be small initially but for some countries the Model 3 will have incentives that will probably approach the "Norway effect". In Brazil, one I know, the elimination of 25% import duty and 7% annual car tax in Rio de Janeiro will make Model 3 actually the cheapest car in the class. That is assuming BMW, Audi etc do not bring real competition also.

Anyway I have one 3 reserved for the US and another for Rio de Janeiro. Now comes the agonizing wait.