Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves)

[stinnett_P813]

I stopped by the Fashion Island, CA store this afternoon and spoke to someone and asked about general production. The reponse was that the production rate is still in the 200 hundred's per week and they hope to get to 300 by Dec 1 and then hope to reach 400 at Dec 31. I was also told based on my sequence number (813), I should expect to hear from the delivery specialist "in the beginning of the new year". At which point I would be assigned a delivery window. So that means at least 2-3 weeks from that point before actual delivery. Based on that rate, they will not even come close to reaching 2500-3000 deliveries in the fourth quarter. Maybe more like 1200-1500.

 

[ckessel]

I was also told based on my sequence number (813), I should expect to hear from the delivery specialist "in the beginning of the new year". ... Based on that rate, they will not even come close to reaching 2500-3000 deliveries in the fourth quarter. Maybe more like 1200-1500.

Very disappointing given they reiterated the 2500-3000 deliveries target in the earnings call just a couple weeks ago. If the target suddenly has been reduced it's hard to believe they didn't have some idea that would happen back at the earnings call.

 

[teslasguy]

I stopped by the Fashion Island, CA store this afternoon and spoke to someone and asked about general production. The reponse was that the production rate is still in the 200 hundred's per week and they hope to get to 300 by Dec 1 and then hope to reach 400 at Dec 31. I was also told based on my sequence number (813), I should expect to hear from the delivery specialist "in the beginning of the new year". At which point I would be assigned a delivery window. So that means at least 2-3 weeks from that point before actual delivery. Based on that rate, they will not even come close to reaching 2500-3000 deliveries in the fourth quarter. Maybe more like 1200-1500.

That is way off from everything else we're hearing. I'm P1117 and have consistently been told that it looks good for my car to be here by the end of this year.

 

[FlasherZ]

There are signs that they are stressing the delivery network at these rates.

My car exited service rectification on Sunday at which point it was ready to ship. Yesterday afternoon I got pictures of it wrapped and ready to load. I heard today I won't see it until next Monday night or Tuesday, well over a full week after ready to load; that is on a direct-ship to me (30 hours drive time, 3 days on a logbook-legal, single-man truck or less than 2 on a team truck), rather than piping it through the Chicago center before coming here (which would add 1-2 days).

A bit disappointed on this end, I was hoping to enjoy a nice, long Thanksgiving weekend with it.

 

[stinnett_P813]

That is way off from everything else we're hearing. I'm P1117 and have consistently been told that it looks good for my car to be here by the end of this year.

I sure hope so.. but based on what I keep hearing (This is the third time I have been told I am looking at January delivery) and seeing with the lack of any R's being delivered or even getting a delivery window.. and CASig's still need to be produced and will holefully start being delivered in December.. how can they possibly get 150-200 CASigs + 400 R's and still have some Sig's left to deliver and still get any P's delivered this year? That's 700-800 deliveres left BEFORE they start the P's. They essentially have a little over 30 days before the end of the year. The holiday week of the Dec 24th will kill at least 2 days. To reach P1100 they will need to be deliverying about 60 cars each day starting today.

 

[timdorr]

I stopped by the Fashion Island, CA store this afternoon and spoke to someone and asked about general production. The reponse was that the production rate is still in the 200 hundred's per week and they hope to get to 300 by Dec 1 and then hope to reach 400 at Dec 31. I was also told based on my sequence number (813), I should expect to hear from the delivery specialist "in the beginning of the new year". At which point I would be assigned a delivery window. So that means at least 2-3 weeks from that point before actual delivery. Based on that rate, they will not even come close to reaching 2500-3000 deliveries in the fourth quarter. Maybe more like 1200-1500.

What I've learned from reading out others' experiences with in-store personel, is that they're generally the least informed in the Tesla organization. Just look at the numbers they gave. They've been making 200 cars a week since the conference call. A low estimate would be 750 cars produced before that call. That would put us at 1150 produced today. 1350 for this month. Then 300*5 for December, for a total of 2500 cars produced. Remove 1200 for NA Signatures, 400 for Rs (which may be high), and you're still looking at 900 Ps produced this year. So, even in this wacky world that the store person has concocted, you still have your car finished this year.

But I don't believe a single word of that. They should be bringing on the 2nd shift of workers and bumping production to 400 cars next week. That's according to the conference call 2 weeks ago. There is also the issue of canceled or upgraded orders that leaves a large number of holes in the P and R numbers. Several hundred would be my reasonable guess. And the fact they were still targeting 2500-3000 deliveries this year. You should definitely be getting your car this year. I'm even very confident about getting my car, and I'm right on the bubble!

 

[FlasherZ]

The holiday week of the Dec 24th will kill at least 2 days. To reach P1100 they will need to be deliverying about 60 cars each day starting today.

Don't forget this week seems to be a bit of a wash too with Thanksgiving.

 

[stinnett_P813]

A low estimate would be 750 cars produced before that call. That would put us at 1150 produced today. 1350 for this month. Then 300*5 for December, for a total of 2500 cars produced. Remove 1200 for NA Signatures, 400 for Rs (which may be high), and you're still looking at 900 Ps produced this year. So, even in this wacky world that the store person has concocted, you still have your car finished this year.

Yes, based on your numbers.. they may in well get 900Ps produced, but that doesn't mean they will have 900Ps delivered. Delivery is taking 2-3 weeks from the time the car is completed to reach its new home. So you can not count the last 2 weeks (maybe 3 weeks) of production in December because they wont see delivery until 2013. So based on the 350 cars produced per week, that means 700-1050 cars would be produced in December and will have Jan 2013 delivery dates. Which wipes out most all of P's seeing delivery this year. Again, I am hoping this is way off. I am really hoping for a x-mas delivery.

 

[timdorr]

Got two messages in a row from Tesla this evening after I emailed [email protected]:

Thank you for reaching out to us at Tesla Motors! I am happy to provide you with a current delivery estimate. Your paperwork reflected an estimated delivery in December of 2012. However, with the 4-6 week delay of Signature Series production, we now estimate delivery to occur between end-of-December to January of 2013. In three weeks, perhaps I can provide a more targeted window. If there is anything else that I can assist with then please reach out as well. Thank you in advance for your patience during this time, and I am sure your Model S will be in your garage before you know it.

Also, to address your questions. We are delivering the tail-end of the Signature vehicles, I believe that Roadster Friends and Family will begin hearing from us in the coming weeks, and the chances that your car is produced before the end of the year is very good, but delivery may not occur until January. I hope this helps, and am here if you need further clarification.

Good communication and informative! Sounds like my internal thinking of them starting a new delivery process with the GP cars is probably right. There's been rumblings of Tesla hiring a new internal delivery team and also bringing online a new tracking system for deliveries (so they can hit the ~60/day numbers). It sounds like that's going to take a few weeks for all that stuff to move into place, but then the cars are going to start flying out of the factory.

 

[DouglasR]

Got two messages in a row from Tesla this evening after I emailed [email protected]:

Tim, what's your reservation number again?

 

[timdorr]

Tim, what's your reservation number again?

It's in my signature. P1698.

 

[doug]

I really hope they don't just have Ps sitting around the lots waiting.

Hmm... I happened to be driving north on 880 early last Saturday evening and did notice what looked like a lot of Model Ss sitting on the lot at the Fremont plant.

 

[ckessel]

It's in my signature. P1698.

Many folks, like me, aren't configured to see signatures.

 

[josh]

I'm with Stinnett. There is conflict between what Tesla is saying they intend to do, and what it looks like is possible given their current productivity, remaining time in the year, and holidays.

I don't think Tesla means to mislead, but they, like every startup I've ever worked with, are optimistic. I'm sure they gave us a number that they would hit if everything went perfectly, but in reality, everything doesn't go perfectly.

Now, being a public company is new to them, and they may come to regret over-promising and missing. It's super tempting to do, because it makes things better today (you tell the analysts good news, they say good things, stock price doesn't drop) but it bites you in the end.

Being on the roadster list, I've been watching the forums like a hawk since that call... and basically in several weeks, we've seen a handful of cars delivered, and probably a total of 800-900 cars have been delivered in the last three months. As others have said, with <6 weeks, and 2 of those basically holiday weeks, there's just NFW they can push out thousands of cars to customers in that timeframe. Put another way, I would take a significant bet from anyone that believes we'll deliver past P1500 by end of year (unless they go completely off-sequence), and it would not surprise me given current data if the actual number ended up in the <P500. Honestly I'm no more than 75% confident of getting my roadster list car this year...

I hope for everybody's sake that I'm wrong!

 

[Brian H]

...
and basically in several weeks, we've seen a handful of cars delivered, and probably a total of 800-900 cars have been delivered in the last three months. As others have said, with <6 weeks, and 2 of those basically holiday weeks, there's just NFW they can push out thousands of cars to customers in that timeframe. Put another way, I would take a significant bet from anyone that believes we'll deliver past P1500 by end of year (unless they go completely off-sequence), and it would not surprise me given current data if the actual number ended up in the <P500. Honestly I'm no more than 75% confident of getting my roadster list car this year...

I hope for everybody's sake that I'm wrong!

Hm.
Well, back off the 3 wks for finishing/delivering from the production pattern, and you're back to the pre-200 late Oct. figures. Back that same time off from November 200-400 ramp, then (planned?) December's 400-500(?) ramp, and you have 1 wk+ into December's production, for a total of about 2,000 more cars out the door.

And estimate the holiday "break" at close to zero. Elon has said that both Thanksgiving and Xmas are going to be working holidays (staffed by those willing and wanting the extra time, with incentives and peer pressure to help with the motivation.)

$200 is a big deal for me. Enough?

 

[Shorty]

I could be wrong but when Tesla says delivery I don't think they are referring delivery to the customer. My paperwork states that delivery is at Tesla's facility. On that basis then I would think that they could consider a car delivered when it hits their shipping depot.

 

[Brian H]

I could be wrong but when Tesla says delivery I don't think they are referring delivery to the customer. My paperwork states that delivery is at Tesla's facility. On that basis then I would think that they could consider a car delivered when it hits their shipping depot.

Well, considering that they only "recognize" revenue when the product is in customers' hands, ...

 

[DouglasR]

It's in my signature. P1698.

Doh. Just noticed your signature.

I've been using the following rough calculation to estimate the last P to be delivered in 2012. According to TM's most recent guidance, at least 2700 cars will be delivered to customers in 2012 (200 in Q3 + 2500 in Q4). Subtract from that 1200 North American Sigs and 40 Founders cars, and you get at least 1460 Rs and Ps to be delivered to customers in 2012. If we assume a 25% rate of cancellations and deferrals, then the 1460 must be grossed up (divided by .75) to 1947. Now subtract 532 Rs, which will be delivered first, and you get 1515, the highest number P to be delivered in 2012. If TM delivers 3000 cars rather than 2500 cars in Q4, that number is increased to 2081. If cancellations exceed 25%, the number goes up further. If TM undershoots its target or cancellations are less than 25%, the number goes down.

You can see that the number 1515 is pretty close to what you were told about your own delivery date: end of December or January for P1698.

The problem is that this calculation needs to be reconciled with current production rates and delivery reports. I read somewhere that either GB or Elon confirmed production was up to 250 a week as of a few days ago (I'll try to find the post - post 360 in this thread). I would think it would need to be a bit higher to reach the 400 per week that was projected for December 1, particularly with the Thanksgiving holiday intervening. Also, we've been theorizing that TM has not slowed production of Ps to accommodate the Sigs, but rather has just stopped sending out notices with VINs and delivery windows. But that can go on only so long. It's not like TM can send the notices after the cars are delivered. If we don't see those notices soon, we will have to assume that production of Rs and Ps is running behind projections.

On the basis of this, I am guessing that production is going to be at the lower end of the range. The last P will be around 1500 at best, and because of Christmas and the weather, possibly under 1000.

 

[Omer]

I think we have to take delivered location into account. Most likely they will have produced up to around P1500 - 1700 by end of year. So if someone lives close by and can pick up at the factory they may get VIN 1600 this year while anyone east of the Rockies probably won't see anything above P500 delivered

 

[Petrokalis]

All these projections, of course, assume that all Rs and Ps are created equally. We have no idea the mix of battery configurations nor how/when TM is going to start introducing the CDN Ps.

DouglasR's calculations assume that all Ps are 85 kWh and US models.