I think we'll be the judge of that, Curt: look at all the time you otherwise wouldn't have had, in order to post so many high-quality posts!
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I think we'll be the judge of that, Curt: look at all the time you otherwise wouldn't have had, in order to post so many high-quality posts!
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
It's possible that TM will pre announce some Q2 results before the market opens on Monday.
That's what happened on April 1st for the Q1 results
Bottom line is there's still quite a bit of short interest on TSLA. I think anyone holding a short position into Monday may see a "tsunami of hurt" when the market opens on Monday.
That's what happened on April 1st for the Q1 results
Bottom line is there's still quite a bit of short interest on TSLA. I think anyone holding a short position into Monday may see a "tsunami of hurt" when the market opens on Monday.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Someone correctly pointed out that Elon is on vacation next week and TM is off for the week. That kinda throws cold water on the preannouncement idea.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Not at all (IMO). Factory was off the first week in April as well. Nor did TM or Elon have anything additional to say about the April 1st press release immediately following its release. The all details were filled in during the official Q1 earnings call and supporting filing.
I see it just the other way. I can easily see Elon pre announcing some better than expected results and then let everyone speculate on all the details leading up to the official earnings call. This causes quite a frenzy of interest in TSLA including media exposure. Helps TM mgmt take the week off without having to further engage anyone including the media.
I think that perhaps just announcing the sales were greater then the 4,500 target in Q2 and that they expect to sell more then 21,000 for FY 2013 would be great news. I don't think they have much of a chance of being profitable this quarter but I do not think anyone expects that they will be.
I think he's more than earned the break. More importantly, last time the factory was closed it was for retooling. I think this is just a break in preparation for a crazy H2, with international roll out and probably pumped up deliveries/service.
ShortSlaver
Member
Excellent week overall and today was a good breather. Showing real strength and comfort at its current valuation. Love a solid base and optimism going into earning next month. When it was up into the 110 range I sold some covered calls against part of my position. Almost bought to close them today but sort of keeping it as a hedge. Would have to surpass 116 for me to lose out, so we'll see.
I think I question the wisdom of the market on this. When Tesla had their formal announcement of a profitable first quarter in May, the market flipped out and the stock went bananas. I thought the world was on drugs since all of us had known since the beginning of April that the first quarter was profitable. The market should expect a loss for the second quarter thanks to the guidance provided by Tesla Motors, but I have a feeling that when a loss is announced, even within guidance, the market will flip out thinking OMG! Tesla isn't profitable after all! and the stock will take a dive.
The petition to the White House asking for federal assistance allowing Tesla Motors to directly sell and service cars to consumers is approaching 50,000 signatures, and almost all of that in the past 7 days despite the petition being initiated 23 days ago. I signed a week ago and was #238. Now we are nearly halfway toward the goal of 100,000 and the deadline is next Friday, July 5th.
Everyone please sign and tell your friends through email and social media like Facebook. I provide a link on my website. No matter what your political affiliation, don't fear getting on the list of your White House that houses your president. They will very occasionally send you notices - usually about an upcoming speech that will be webcast through the White House website. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Petition Link: allow Tesla Motors to sell directly to consumers in all 50 states. | We the People: Your Voice in Our Government
Everyone please sign and tell your friends through email and social media like Facebook. I provide a link on my website. No matter what your political affiliation, don't fear getting on the list of your White House that houses your president. They will very occasionally send you notices - usually about an upcoming speech that will be webcast through the White House website. You can unsubscribe at any time.
Petition Link: allow Tesla Motors to sell directly to consumers in all 50 states. | We the People: Your Voice in Our Government
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
This is why I believe TM will produce a small profit. There's a large benefit in "perception" to have two profitable qtrs in a row and cement the belief that TM IS a consistently profitable company. If TM isn't profitable in Q2, all the naysayers will say that Q1 was a fluke and the stock price will suffer.
I think it's always in the TM plan to EXCEED their guidance AND always be profitable each qtr (even if its a penny per share)
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Did it today!
The reason the market flipped out after Q1 earnings wasn't just because Tesla was profitable. It was combination of several things:
1. They were profitable and by a lot more than people were expecting.
2. They delivered a lot more cars than they had guided (I think it was 4900 deliveries but they guidanced 4500)
3. They gave firm demand numbers that exceed their own expectations and everyone else's (15k+ U.S. demand for Model S annually and 30k+ worldwide)
Before this Tesla had several quarters of under-delivering. They couldn't ramp up production fast enough and only delivered 3000 cars in 2012 (vs 5000 they guided). Their revenue and profit numbers were much lower in 2012 than they had guided as well. So when Q1 earnings came out it was a huge turning point. It meant Tesla surpassed production goals, surpassed revenue goals, surpassed profit goals, and also confirmed annual U.S. and worldwide demand for the Model S to be greater than they were anticipating. Basically, it changed the entire trajectory of the company. Before it wasn't clear how much momentum Tesla would have going into Gen III (or some people were doubting the company's viability). But after Q1 it confirmed Tesla would have a ton of momentum going into Gen III and nobody's questioning their viability as a company since Q1 earnings. It was the end of the long, dark night for Tesla.
Anyway, even if Tesla doesn't announce a profit for Q2, I don't think the market will completely flip out. Tesla is at a much stronger position than several months ago. They've already given guidance of a loss. They just need to stay within their given guidance. Though I really hope they do turn a profit and we see another spike in stock price.
monday should be interesting day. a lot expect a musk tweet. if positive, well enough said. if none sent signal will be sent to market. i don't necessarily put anything into the absence of a tweet, but the market might. i think some of the action on friday was increased short interest with each large dip related to increased volume then slowly recovering price. i believe the blackberry results had many wishing they had shorted that one and probably emboldened short sellers in general. suspect absence of tweet will drop the price on monday.
smorgasbord
Active Member
I've been holding on the assumption that everyone knows it won't be profitable (no way, no how), but that most don't expect production over 5000 vehicles with demand continuing.
If the stock is trading on profitability speculations, then perhaps I should take some off the table while it's close to 110, and get back in on the dip. IMO, no way no how does Tesla announce a profit for Q2.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Don't forget possible negative impact on Q2 numbers from the recall. The recall was largely a non event for the media, but, 800 cars still had to be fixed this quarter.
I dropped my car this Wednesday for 6,000 miles service at the Menlo Park service center and couldn't believe how busy they were. Must have been at least 40 Model Ses in the parking lot. Thankfully, my car is ready to be picked up this afternoon, after having driven a filthy, smelly, noisy rental ICE car from Enterprise for the last three days (all Tesla's loaners were already committed). These incremental rental costs will have to be absorbed by Tesla this quarter.
I dropped my car this Wednesday for 6,000 miles service at the Menlo Park service center and couldn't believe how busy they were. Must have been at least 40 Model Ses in the parking lot. Thankfully, my car is ready to be picked up this afternoon, after having driven a filthy, smelly, noisy rental ICE car from Enterprise for the last three days (all Tesla's loaners were already committed). These incremental rental costs will have to be absorbed by Tesla this quarter.
That's confusing. What 6000 mile checkup? There is a 12500 mile or one yr recommended checkup but what 6000 mile. Was there a problem? Why loaner for elective service?
Looks like the 4500 number for delivery is about right for Q2, although some previous VINs might be unsold/undelivered - pictures show 14xxx to be delivered today.
(14739-9650 = 5089, subtract 500 for Euro delivery which won't be recognized in Q2).
(14739-9650 = 5089, subtract 500 for Euro delivery which won't be recognized in Q2).
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