Superchargers Doubling in 2019?

[T3slaOwner]

If you're going to harp on this, at least have the integrity to do so honestly. Don't take a paraphrase or misquote of Elon then bash him for not delivering on something that was never claimed in the first place. When it comes to Elon's pronouncements, you have to be really careful to ensure that what you think he's saying is what was actually said or that he means. It's very easy to misread him, especially on twitter which, as a platform, doesn't lend itself well to expanding on or clarifying the (often technical) nuance Elon regularly uses in communication (though admittedly I see this happening much more often on the SpaceX/rocketry side than the Tesla/cars one). So, why don't we go straight to the horse's mouth twitter feed to find out what was actually claimed:

Elon on Twitter (2018-11-19)--"Tesla Supercharger capacity will double by end of next year. Expect to be within range of 95% to 100% of population in all active markets," and follow up tweet, "Supercharger V3, which starts rolling out early next year, will also charge much faster." [bolded emphasis added]

Ok, let's go through your list checking for improvements to the "Tesla Supercharger capacity"

Sure, one way to increase the network's capacity is to just build more stations. But it's not the only way. And given the size of the supercharger network in November 2018, the idea that Tesla could possibly double the number of stations/stalls in a little more than a single year, even if that had been their stated goal, would have been patently ridiculous.

Not at all ridiculous or Musk would not keep repeating it every year. You seem to want to focus on just the most recent time he said it.

So, lets look at what Tesla has actually done since that tweet:

1. Obviously, they've built the new stations and expanded the stall counts at a number of existing stations as mentioned in the opening post. Though, the fact that congestion was reduced by adding stalls to existing locations and not just at new stations wasn't mentioned as the focus was, incorrectly, only on the physical numbers and not on network capacity.

No one has said anything about only counting stations. I specifically gave info on both the station and stall counts.

1. Increased the max charging speed (from 120 kW to 150 kW) across the vast majority of existing superchargers. The benefits of this end up getting pretty diluted if you're charging to a high SOC. But for bottom-of-the-battery charging, it's significant.

Actually, it is very insignificant. The improvement in charging rate is over a small portion of the charging cycle. I guess if you limit your charging to that small window, then the small increase become more significant. But this was never a factor before when Musk talked about doubling in 2018 and 2017.

1. Updated the fleet's firmware to help cars maximize their potential charging speed via on-route warm up.

Not sure that actually improves the charging time overall. If so, wouldn't Tesla tell us to use battery power to warm the battery to get more range? Besides, this does nothing in places like Southern California where it is never cold enough to need battery heating.

1. Retrofitted essentially the entire European supercharger network to support CCS for the Model 3. I don't think the tracker is kept up-to-date anymore, but this google map was showing progress.

Great, but that's not doing anything for the "Tesla Supercharger capacity". That's making the same capacity work with the new cars which congests the network further for the existing Tesla cars.

1. Added functionality to the phone app to see supercharger use and stall availability. Before, this had been restricted to only showing on the in-car navigation's screen. This (theoretically) helps to increase network efficiency and throughput by getting drivers to route to and use less congested stations, if available.

LOL, that is quite a reach to try to use this as an increase in capacity. Maybe it helps a tiny bit in Southern California where every little bit helps. Where I drive there aren't so many chargers that I get much choice. I'm limited to a Supercharger or an Urbancharger. This is the situation over some 95% of the country. The issue of capacity isn't just about being able to charge somewhere, sometime. The network needs to expand to cover smaller cities and towns and give highway travelers more options on when to stop rather than having to stop here when the car still has 30% charge because it wont' make it the 100 miles to the next charger.

1. Instituted a policy of limiting supercharging sessions to 80% SOC at heavily congested stations. Even though this limit is easily evaded, it should still help to increase stall turnover and throughput during heavy use periods.

There is no such policy of limiting charging to 80%. The default setting is 80% or less. You can always up it to whatever number you want even from the phone app.

1. Started rolling out V3 supercharging, with its significant speed and charging architecture benefits. 3 stations currently in operation (Hawthorne, Fremont, Las Vegas) and about 30-40 known to be in construction or confirmed in some stage of permitting.

Yea! But still no cigar since they are not making a significant impact, not the least because nearly half the Tesla fleet still can use the extra kW, at least not on one car. I guess that's why they are where they are, they do the most where the problem is congestion, not location.

[/QUOTE]There may be other things I either don't remember or haven't thought of as well.

I think the big shortfall from Elon's tweet has probably been due to a slower roll-out of the V3 superchargers than he was projecting at the time. 3/4 of the year gone and besides the one at the LINQ, the only operational sites are the original "beta testing" locations on Tesla property. We'll see what the rest of the year brings.[/QUOTE]

What was the expected roll out? I never heard anyone say how many V3 chargers would be in place this year.

Elon's tweet referred to the state of the supercharger network "by the end of [2019]", so there are only 2 cases where the bottleneck/shortage of charging pedestals which many North American construction sites are currently experiencing is possibly relevant. I.e. If the shortage persists through another 3+ months and December 31st comes around with a lot of sites still waiting OR if Tesla has been delaying their construction starts due to a projected lack of pedestals. IMO, the first is unlikely and the second seems to be contradicted by the continuing new starts and the large number of sites languishing without the hardware. So, basically just a non sequitur to the discussion.

LOL Of course it is relevant. We have no reason to expect the production of pedestals will suddenly ramp up and all the backlog will be installed. We have about a quarter left. I guess we will see.

 

[T3slaOwner]

Not trying to defend Elon's exaggeration of "doubling capacity", but I look at this and just say, wow thats pretty damn impressive. There are ~1200 stalls either in permit or in construction, and in the last 3 quarters he has quadrupled the capacity in my area
Nobody is taking regional EV charging seriously other than Tesla and the "forced" VW Electrify America (which by all accounts has not figured it out at all and is charging absurd rates, so who is getting that revenue?).

Yes, it is impressive that EVs exist at all. But that's not all Musk. Heck, he wasn't even there when the first car was designed. He came in after the real groundwork was done and they needed money to take the next step.

I find it funny that you are talking about the quadrupling of capacity in your area. Some locations have increased by an infinite ratio and others by zero. What's your point?

VW was not forced to build a charging network. They were being fined and this was a plan they came up with to use the fines for something productive. They have made serious inroads into fast DC charging for non-Teslas, much more than a 20% increase in capacity. I don't know how fast the Bolt will charge on one of these, but I believe it is practical to drive one cross country now. That was the only serious short coming I saw in the Bolt. If I didn't have a weekly trip 120 miles each way I might have considered buying one.

 

[plumazul]

If you're going to harp on this, at least have the integrity to do so honestly. Don't take a paraphrase or misquote of Elon then bash him for not delivering on something that was never claimed in the first place. When it comes to Elon's pronouncements, you have to be really careful to ensure that what you think he's saying is what was actually said or that he means. It's very easy to misread him, especially on twitter which, as a platform, doesn't lend itself well to expanding on or clarifying the (often technical) nuance Elon regularly uses in communication (though admittedly I see this happening much more often on the SpaceX/rocketry side than the Tesla/cars one). So, why don't we go straight to the horse's mouth twitter feed to find out what was actually claimed:

Elon on Twitter (2018-11-19)--"Tesla Supercharger capacity will double by end of next year. Expect to be within range of 95% to 100% of population in all active markets," and follow up tweet, "Supercharger V3, which starts rolling out early next year, will also charge much faster." [bolded emphasis added]

Sure, one way to increase the network's capacity is to just build more stations. But it's not the only way. {snip}

I agree. This summer on my trips from the east coast to south Texas, my car (same as past couple years) was charging MUCH faster. Almost always starting out in the 146-140kw range. This combined with the better assist from navigation, got me in and out of Superchargers much faster than before. Since I wasn't sitting there using one, the effect is identical to an increase in physical capacity.

 

[Rocky_H]

Through three quarters we're looking at 14% growth over 2018 to this point of 2019. This is roughly 5% growth per quarter if I round up. You're defense is we're going to see 86% growth in the final quarter of 2019 for him to make his statement a reality?

No. I wasn't making a prediction about whether they will hit the goal or not. I am the son of an English teacher, though, who values that words have meanings. You were using past tense for something, stating it as something that is already over in the past, when it actually still has three months left to go. I still don't think they will make it either--probably not close, but that is still to be seen in the future. Also: "your", not "you're".

You are being a bit like the guy on the other Tesla forums who crowed victory about how they were supposedly proven right that the $35,000 was a bait and switch and was a lie and didn't happen (past tense) just because it wasn't the first version that was offered. We pointed out to him that while they are still making Model 3 and continuing to work toward offering other configurations, the story wasn't done yet, and it still remained to be seen whether the $35,000 version will happen or not.

 

[Blup85]

I find it funny that you are talking about the quadrupling of capacity in your area. Some locations have increased by an infinite ratio and others by zero. What's your point?

I said that with tongue in cheek, because I went from 6 to 24 superchargers within 30 miles of me, and there will probably be another 24 before years end.. jeez...

If you think driving a bolt has the same ease of driving a Tesla cross country, good freaking luck. I'd give Electrify America another 3-5 years to figure it out (and they will still charge 4 times more than Tesla) Not complaining, more choices are always better, but c'mon no one is close to the ease of use, accessibility and cost, to Tesla's charging Network.. period. Even with Electrify America they are years away, at a higher cost..

 

[T3slaOwner]

No. I wasn't making a prediction about whether they will hit the goal or not. I am the son of an English teacher, though, who values that words have meanings. You were using past tense for something, stating it as something that is already over in the past, when it actually still has three months left to go. I still don't think they will make it either--probably not close, but that is still to be seen in the future. Also: "your", not "you're".

You are being a bit like the guy on the other Tesla forums who crowed victory about how they were supposedly proven right that the $35,000 was a bait and switch and was a lie and didn't happen (past tense) just because it wasn't the first version that was offered. We pointed out to him that while they are still making Model 3 and continuing to work toward offering other configurations, the story wasn't done yet, and it still remained to be seen whether the $35,000 version will happen or not.

That's one that I still not sure can be called a truth. Yes, you can buy a model 3 for $35,000, but only if you know about it from the press or a friend. They don't list this version on the web site and you have to know to call and order it over the phone. Then on top of that, the car is actually the same as the otherwise lowest version, just software disabled for some hardware that is actually in the car. Tesla doesn't just make a lower profit margin on the car because it is a lower priced car which typically has lower profit margins, it costs the company the same so the difference in price comes right out of Tesla's pocket.

While they can claim they are making a $35,000 EV, they can't sell too many of them if they want to stay in business.

 

[T3slaOwner]

I said that with tongue in cheek, because I went from 6 to 24 superchargers within 30 miles of me, and there will probably be another 24 before years end.. jeez...

If you think driving a bolt has the same ease of driving a Tesla cross country, good freaking luck. I'd give Electrify America another 3-5 years to figure it out (and they will still charge 4 times more than Tesla) Not complaining, more choices are always better, but c'mon no one is close to the ease of use, accessibility and cost, to Tesla's charging Network.. period. Even with Electrify America they are years away, at a higher cost..

The Bolt reply was about the slope of the line, not the level. I'm too tired to go back and see if it was you or someone else who was talking about how Electrify America is not putting up chargers as fast as Tesla when it is the other way around. A year ago it would be hugely painful to drive a Bolt anywhere further than one charge, stay in a hotel overnight with a level 2 charger, lather, rinse, repeat. Today there is a charging network that may not be as complete as Tesla's, but is in the same camp of making trips feasible. It took Tesla two or three years to do that I believe.

What people forget about is that there aren't other charging networks comparable because there hasn't been the demand. The other EV makers are still getting their feet wet. So they still have time to get charging infrastructure in place. Tesla has how many cars on the road today??? I believe it is well over half a million and talk about 350,000 a year and even more once the two factories they are building out come online. It may not be geometric growth, but it is a lot faster than 20% a year. Supercharger construction isn't even keeping up with car production and unless they do something about it this will become THE bottle neck giving them a bad reputation.

It just seems to me this is an obvious potential sales limiter. Tesla acts like they know this. That's why they built the Supercharger network and that is why they keep bragging about doubling the capacity of the network even though they never do. They already have very visible congestion at chargers in their primary market, Southern California. Makes you wonder if it has lost them sales so far?

 

[Blu Angel]

I'd love to see the reference for that! I'm pretty sure that number is not accurate. A 10 bay station would be $2.5 million!!! You could build a Supercharger factor for that much money and pump those babies out and sell them to Tesla who can't seem to make them very

@T3slaOwner

I found this reference from a Tesla financial analyst that states it
costs $270,000 yo build each SC!!

Supercharger: It Could Cost Half the Price of Gas | ARK

 

[Blup85]

@T3slaOwner

I found this reference from a Tesla financial analyst that states it
costs $270,000 yo build each SC!!

Supercharger: It Could Cost Half the Price of Gas | ARK

I'm sure the fully burdened costs to install a (typical) 12 stall Supercharger stall is very expensive, but I can't see 270k per stall.
The estimate of improvements from permitting that I have seen is around 150k-200k for the 14 stall site in Chico, that might not be factoring in PGE, design, and PM. PGE design and transformer placement could easily be 100k but due to the usage, PGE can wave those upfront capital costs due to the massive energy use that Tesla would use (I'd be willing to bet they are). Obviously, Supercharger sites like Kettleman City are on another level, and I can see that site might have cost them 1 or 2 million considering they also purchased the land, but typically its leased from the property owner with an agreement.

 

[T3slaOwner]

@T3slaOwner

I found this reference from a Tesla financial analyst that states it
costs $270,000 yo build each SC!!

Supercharger: It Could Cost Half the Price of Gas | ARK

From your reference, "at roughly $270,000 per station"... that's not per stall or per charger... That's exactly what I said, per station.

 

[doghousePVD]

Utilities are slower than turtles. Any sort of "unusual" request can take ridiculous amounts of time. Much of the grid is woefully under equipped, and bringing in the power for a SC often needs significant upgrades, new transformers, and new high voltage lines installed from the sub-stations, most of which need approval from the PUC.

Plus, as previously mentioned, lethargic approval boards and building inspectors, most of whom have never had to approve megawatt electrical facilities with consumer access, are not rushing forward. Each community has unique building inspectors, each state has unique PUCs, each power company have varying levels of lethargy, and many northern area have limited weather windows for installation.

I remain impressed at how well and fast more SC are installed.

 

[T3slaOwner]

Utilities are slower than turtles. Any sort of "unusual" request can take ridiculous amounts of time. Much of the grid is woefully under equipped, and bringing in the power for a SC often needs significant upgrades, new transformers, and new high voltage lines installed from the sub-stations, most of which need approval from the PUC.

Plus, as previously mentioned, lethargic approval boards and building inspectors, most of whom have never had to approve megawatt electrical facilities with consumer access, are not rushing forward. Each community has unique building inspectors, each state has unique PUCs, each power company have varying levels of lethargy, and many northern area have limited weather windows for installation.

I remain impressed at how well and fast more SC are installed.

Really? The PUC/PSC has to approve installation of electricity and/or upgrades to the power lines??? Can anyone verify this or are you guessing?

 

[doghousePVD]

Really? The PUC/PSC has to approve installation of electricity and/or upgrades to the power lines??? Can anyone verify this or are you guessing?

In most jurisdictions, capital improvements, which are the basis for rates, have to be approved by the PUC. If not, the utility might be building beautiful spas for senior employees for the ratepayers to pay for. Installing a Supercharger is almost always a capital improvement (new lines, new transformer, upstream improvements), unlike a residential install which is simply running a wire from the pole transformer to the house.

A 8 lane Supercharger is about the power of a 50 unit residential subdivision, with very different usage characteristics that the utility may not be prepared for.

 

[Blup85]

Utilities are slower than turtles.

I remain impressed at how well and fast more SC are installed.

⁹

I agree with you on those two points, but can't buddy up with you on your other points at all. No way the PUC has any involvement on the "small" details of setting a transformer for a 12 or 20 stall site. Yes, the load is huge, but there is no way the PUC is getting in to the details of supercharger placement/local approval. PGE is slower than molasses.. ask me how I know.
That being said, I am also impressed with supercharger deployment, Tesla (and Electrify America) communicating with all different agencies and utilities out there is like speaking 1000 different languages.

 

[Ostrichsak]

Utilities are slower than turtles. Any sort of "unusual" request can take ridiculous amounts of time. Much of the grid is woefully under equipped, and bringing in the power for a SC often needs significant upgrades, new transformers, and new high voltage lines installed from the sub-stations, most of which need approval from the PUC.

Plus, as previously mentioned, lethargic approval boards and building inspectors, most of whom have never had to approve megawatt electrical facilities with consumer access, are not rushing forward. Each community has unique building inspectors, each state has unique PUCs, each power company have varying levels of lethargy, and many northern area have limited weather windows for installation.

I remain impressed at how well and fast more SC are installed.

You might have a point if 2019 was their first year doing this. It's not. They know the drill. He made that claim FULLY aware of the implications of what he was saying. They fell horrendously short of his claim. These are the facts. Everyone else is making up excuses.

 

[Fossil Fool]

I wouldn't have bought our Teslas without the SC network. The fact that is growing at any rate is amazing to me. The infrastructure cost of what Tesla has achieved puts all competitors years behind, unless the market segment attracted to EV doesn't care about traveling outside their cars' range. As a stock holder, I applaud Elon for being the first to solve the chicken or the egg problem with the EVs. It bodes well for EV adoption and a long-term stock value.

 

[Ostrichsak]

I wouldn't have bought our Teslas without the SC network. The fact that is growing at any rate is amazing to me. The infrastructure cost of what Tesla has achieved puts all competitors years behind, unless the market segment attracted to EV doesn't care about traveling outside their cars' range. As a stock holder, I applaud Elon for being the first to solve the chicken or the egg problem with the EVs. It bodes well for EV adoption and a long-term stock value.

As a stock holder you should want Elon to not make absurd claims he has no possible way of coming through on. Every time he does it gives just a little more ammo for the FUDs to continue shifting media focus away from the positive things they're doing and talk about the misses honestly. If they're going to make up negative things to say about Tesla, let them. At least those can be combated with facts and proof. Tesla has enough of an brand approval issue w/o volunteering fuel to add to the fire.

This thread is just another example of how some people are so willing to defend Tesla/Elon at ANY cost that they can't even accept when he's wrong on something that isn't a large deal. Why argue it? He said double the # of Superchargers in 2019 in his own words and even volunteered that information unprovoked. He was wrong. Period. Bring it to his attention, demand better from the face of the company and move on. End of story. Why does this need to be a 3 page debate when he's clearly wrong?

It's going to get progressively more difficult to defend the made up FUD with credibility when the pro-Tesla among us insist on arguing any and all shots fired against Tesla... even the ones that are accurate.

 

[Rocky_H]

That's one that I still not sure can be called a truth. Yes, you can buy a model 3 for $35,000, but only if you know about it from the press or a friend. They don't list this version on the web site and you have to know to call and order it over the phone. Then on top of that, the car is actually the same as the otherwise lowest version, just software disabled for some hardware that is actually in the car. Tesla doesn't just make a lower profit margin on the car because it is a lower priced car which typically has lower profit margins, it costs the company the same so the difference in price comes right out of Tesla's pocket.

While they can claim they are making a $35,000 EV, they can't sell too many of them if they want to stay in business.

So are you using a crane or forklift to move those goalposts?

What nonsense. People were waiting for the $35,000 base version to become available for purchase. Tesla then made it available for purchase. People purchased it. THE END.

All of your noise about how they aren't promoting it enough or making it clear enough or easy to find enough or whatever new things you are coming up with is extraneous garbage. Tesla never promised that it would be the most promoted and advertised version. They never promised that they would try to make it their best seller. They never promised that they would continue to make it available for a very long time.

 

[simplego]

All of your noise about how they aren't promoting it enough or making it clear enough or easy to find enough or whatever new things you are coming up with is extraneous garbage. Tesla never promised that it would be the most promoted and advertised version. They never promised that they would try to make it their best seller. They never promised that they would continue to make it available for a very long time.

To be fair, Tesla made a big deal out of the $35k version since it was a long promised car and a promise to the masses. There are no goal posts being moved. They achieved the feat, celebrated for a short time and then swept it under the rug. The main reason for this is that economically it’s not worth it for them.

It’s an off the menu option as mentioned earlier, so you need to be looking specifically for it in order to get it. On top of that their website (as far as I know) does not have any info on the $35k version anywhere. It’s not fully fair to say they offer it if it’s a bit of a treasure hunt to find.

@Rocky_H To your point they probably did not sell much of the base model since it is/was a stripped down version of luxury vehicle... Which not many people want to pay $35k for, it makes sense to pay 4K more and get a better interior, sound, better range and more.

 

[Ostrichsak]

This is a thread about Superchargers doubling in 2019. Perhaps this ongoing conversation can be moved to one of the other dozen or so threads about a $35k Model 3.