Taycan Takedown

[wenkan]

Yeah, the sure sign of range not being especially competitive is them not talking about it much and trying to focus elsewhere. "taycan range" in Google gives you wikipedia as the top hit - with the marketing budget of VW that means they just don't want to talk about it.

The "but it can do lots of laps repeatedly" is also classic marketing redirection and weird since it won't be relevant to most people - it suggests they will need things to point at.

e-Tron was the same - no mention of the range on the website at all even days before launch. Then when they finally had to reveal it they were ready with "but... but... er... we saved some capacity for you and that's why - this battery will last years longer because of the favour we're doing you" - the mental gymnastics they have to try is pretty funny. I'm sure we'll see something similar if the taycan range isn't close to a Model S.

"Lots of laps"? Model 3 can barely do one hour session with about 30 laps. I don't think Taycan can do so much.

 

[SO16]

PorSche has over 30,000 orders on the books and has already announced they will increases production from 20k to 40k a year. Porsche is low volume and this could make the Taycan one of its best selling cars.

2018 Panamera 38k, 911 36k

Just keep in mind that preorders do NOT equal final delivery. Etron and ipace were also touting all the preorders only to find out later that many canceled after the cars came out due to people actually seeing and USING the vehicle. Now dealerships are having to offer discounts even for Tesla owners just to buy their own vehicle. Perhaps Porsche will be different. But so far....not ONE of the “Tesla killers” were even able to swat a fly.....let alone kill Tesla.

 

[acoste]

I'll place a gentleman's wager that the Taycan won't reach 230-235 miles of real usable highway range, at a steady 80 mph - and that's without white knuckling it, or going to below recommended charge levels. This would mean greater than 300 EPA range, probably more like 310+ and I'd be frankly stunned if it hit that number. If the bloated E-Tron is any benchmark, it won't.

If it comes in at 5.1k lbs, has a 95kWhr battery, and has the same efficiency and drag coefficient as the Model 3 (all seriously optimistic assumptions in my estimation), it would just clear that 300 EPA rated range. All of that is of course optimistic, based on E tron weight, and estimated mileage. And it's just inconceivable that its CD with the Panabanana body is going to be as good as the Model 3.

Many cars have the same CD or better as the Model 3. BMW 5 series for example.

Taycan's range won't be as much as Tesla's I'm pretty sure about that and the reason is not that it can't be matched, but the focus is elsewhere. Most likely it will also come with limited battery capacity for example.
Mercedes EQC shows pretty good consumption. By the first look it seemed better than Model X although I didn't check the details.

 

[CarlK]

PorSche has over 30,000 orders on the books and has already announced they will increases production from 20k to 40k a year. Porsche is low volume and this could make the Taycan one of its best selling cars.

2018 Panamera 38k, 911 36k

How many shipped so far?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Perhaps Porsche will be different. But so far....not ONE of the “Tesla killers” were even able to swat a fly.....let alone kill Tesla.

I don’t think anyone thinks Porsche is a “Tesla-killer.” Quite a different target market and very limited volume manufacturer. Maybe will impact Tesla’s Performance sales a bit, but I kind of doubt it l, due to the factor of (up to) three difference in price.

Most likely it will also come with limited battery capacity for example.

Audi e-tron GT and Porsche Taycan J1 - How They're Alike (and Different)

It’s supposed to share a platform with the future e-tron GT. (96kWh)

I also saw a review of a similar Taycan platform which said they could push pack capacity to 105kWh. They’ll probably reserve that for the Turbo S (still being developed). I suppose they are testing the Turbo in the videos above but maybe it is just the regular pedestrian Carrera 4S? It didn’t seem THAT fast.

Here is what I could find about trim levels for those who aren’t following:

Porsche Taycan Specs Hinted At Ahead Of Reveal

 

[dfwatt]

Many cars have the same CD or better as the Model 3. BMW 5 series for example.

Taycan's range won't be as much as Tesla's I'm pretty sure about that and the reason is not that it can't be matched, but the focus is elsewhere. Most likely it will also come with limited battery capacity for example.
Mercedes EQC shows pretty good consumption. By the first look it seemed better than Model X although I didn't check the details.

Many cars have the same CD or better as the Model 3. BMW 5 series for example.

Taycan's range won't be as much as Tesla's I'm pretty sure about that and the reason is not that it can't be matched, but the focus is elsewhere. Most likely it will also come with limited battery capacity for example.
Mercedes EQC shows pretty good consumption. By the first look it seemed better than Model X although I didn't check the details.

Not sure where you're getting information like that. The BMW M5 has a drag coefficient of .32. The Tesla Model 3 is .23 on the other hand.

 

[jerry33]

Not sure where you're getting information like that. The BMW M5 has a drag coefficient of .32. The Tesla Model 3 is .23 on the other hand.

It's really hard for an ICE to get down to very low drag coefficients because the exhaust system creates a lot of drag. (In the past drag coefficient was measured only with the upper body and a flat bottom to give lower numbers).

 

[voip-ninja]

One key area that Porsche will fail at is the continued software improvements that Tesla delivers with all of their vehicles. Not that it's likely to be a key differentiator for those who are really interested in an electric Porsche but it's worth pointing out that the Porsche someone buys is not going to change much, if at all, until the owner spends money for a new model. Porsche owners can also anticipate insanely expensive service visits and an aggressive maintenance schedule that will wipe away the advantages of having an EV from a service and reliability cost perspective.

Having said all that if I was in the market for a $140,000 super high performance sedan in 2020 I would be putting a deposit down on Taycan...

 

[seattlite2004]

How many shipped so far?

I'm thinking they shipped the same number of units as the Tesla Roadster 2....but that's just a WAG . I'm also WAGng that there will be more Taycan variants shipped before that Tesla Roadster 2 starts shipping....again...just a WAG .

 

[VT_EE]

....but we don't know the EPA rating or really anything about the real world range. Sure it is probably lower and I have even speculated this. However it does have an ace in the hole. A 2 speed trans. This could boost the range substantially. Still only time will tell but too soon to write off as not having range.

Why do you think the 2-speed transmission will substantially boost range? I doubt it has much effect at all. The friction losses in an electric motor are no where near what they are in an ICE. The 2-speed transmission is there to provide extra torque at high speed.

 

[acoste]

Not sure where you're getting information like that. The BMW M5 has a drag coefficient of .32. The Tesla Model 3 is .23 on the other hand.

Most sports cars have higher CD for extra cooling and for creating downforce at high speeds. I'm talking about the basic BMW 5 series. cd= 0.22. Google is your friend.

The new BMW 5 Series Sedan.

"The drag coefficient of the new, 4,935 millimetre-long BMW 5 Series Sedan (Cd = 0.22 at its most efficient) sets the benchmark in its class."

 

[CarlK]

I'm thinking they shipped the same number of units as the Tesla Roadster 2....but that's just a WAG . I'm also WAGng that there will be more Taycan variants shipped before that Tesla Roadster 2 starts shipping....again...just a WAG .

Not sure when both of them are on the market. Between a $150,000 Taycan and $200,000 Roadster which one you think you would buy? 600 mile range 1.9 second 0-60 vs. even a 300 mile range 3 second 0-60 one?

One key area that Porsche will fail at is the continued software improvements that Tesla delivers with all of their vehicles. Not that it's likely to be a key differentiator for those who are really interested in an electric Porsche but it's worth pointing out that the Porsche someone buys is not going to change much, if at all, until the owner spends money for a new model. Porsche owners can also anticipate insanely expensive service visits and an aggressive maintenance schedule that will wipe away the advantages of having an EV from a service and reliability cost perspective.

Having said all that if I was in the market for a $140,000 super high performance sedan in 2020 I would be putting a deposit down on Taycan...

Porsche is making race cars, or in many instances perceived race cars, and Tesla is making tech cars. That said Tesla is much more a race car than Porsche is a tech car.

 

[seattlite2004]

Not sure when both of them are on the market. Between a $150,000 Taycan and $200,000 Roadster which one you think you would buy? 600 mile range 1.9 second 0-60 vs. even a 300 mile range 3 second 0-60 one?



Porsche is making race cars, or in many instances perceived race cars, and Tesla is making tech cars. That said Tesla is much more a race car than Porsche is a tech car.

I'd definitely ain't paying $200K for a Tesla...hhhh. I'd buy a C8 and an EV... any currently shipping EV... heck even a Perf 3...and I'll probably still have 80K left for gas and oil changes .

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Why do you think the 2-speed transmission will substantially boost range? I doubt it has much effect at all. The friction losses in an electric motor are no where near what they are in an ICE. The 2-speed transmission is there to provide extra torque at high speed.

Here’s a general plot...obviously the details vary but the extra gear gives Porsche an extra degree of freedom. Of course, there are very likely additional losses due to the 2-speed transmission - how severe depends on implementation.

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Efficiency-map-of-the-electric-motor-and-inverter_fig4_280231785

You’ll find tons of plots similar to this, all with the same basic characteristic.

 

[spacemnspiff]

Porsche is in many instances perceived race cars

Porsche for the most part is in economics terms a 'Veblen Good'. The perceived value increases as the price increases without any tangible value addition. The only reason to hold back a mid-engined platform like the Cayman in favor of the 911 is exactly this reason.

 

[CarlK]

I'd definitely ain't paying $200K for a Tesla...hhhh. I'd buy a C8 and an EV... any currently shipping EV... heck even a Perf 3...and I'll probably still have 80K left for gas and oil changes .

I used to be a Porsche guy and never wanted a Corvette. It could be different if it has one like the C8. That was then and it is now. No more ICE for me. Between a Roadster and Taycan I can't think of a real car guy would choose the later.

Porsche for the most part is in economics terms a 'Veblen Good'. The perceived value increases as the price increases without any tangible value addition. The only reason to hold back a mid-engined platform like the Cayman in favor of the 911 is exactly this reason.

Definitely. Not saying Porsche does not make some very good cars but its value entirely came from great marketing effort. That's totally opposite to Elon's philosophy. For example Porsche will never sell you a car with P3D performance at $60K even if it can do it. The marketing department will try its best to make the car cost a lot more. Let's see which strategy will win out.

 

[Eno Deb]

Not sure where you're getting information like that. The BMW M5 has a drag coefficient of .32. The Tesla Model 3 is .23 on the other hand.

It depends on the edition. The "efficient dynamics" version of the 5 series does have a .22 Cd. Here are a number of other cars that are similarly aerodynamic as the Model 3:

The most aerodynamic new cars you can buy in 2018 | Motoring Research

 

[Nocturnal]

The model 3's issue with heat isn't something insourmountable. I don't see why Gen 2 (or tesla equivalent) can't beef up the cooling for the P3D or provide more passive air etc. Seems like Porche focused on that aspect, which makes sense. The Taycan is built to be what it is, the model 3 is a cross trim car built to be an economy-esque sedan and scaling up to a sports sedan.

At least they got one thing right on the Taycan.

Definitely. Not saying Porsche does not make some very good cars but its value entirely came from great marketing effort. That's totally opposite to Elon's philosophy. For example Porsche will never sell you a car with P3D performance at $60K even if it can do it. The marketing department will try its best to make the car cost a lot more. Let's see which strategy will win out.

We already know that answer. Tesla has a far higher market cap. Porsche is a nice player. ​

 

[Eno Deb]

The model 3's issue with heat isn't something insourmountable. I don't see why Gen 2 (or tesla equivalent) can't beef up the cooling for the P3D or provide more passive air etc. Seems like Porche focused on that aspect, which makes sense. The Taycan is built to be what it is, the model 3 is a cross trim car built to be an economy-esque sedan and scaling up to a sports sedan.

The 800V architecture of the Taycan's HV system probably plays a role in this. At 800V, only half as much current is required to output a given amount of power as in a 400V system, i.e. there is less waste heat that needs to be removed from the HV components and motors.

 

[204EV]

It depends on the edition. The "efficient dynamics" version of the 5 series does have a .22 Cd. Here are a number of other cars that are similarly aerodynamic as the Model 3:

The most aerodynamic new cars you can buy in 2018 | Motoring Research

Wow some authors will reach deep to take any cuts at Tesla that they can!!

" We can only speculate that the large panel gaps seen on some finished production Model 3s are intended to let the air flow more efficiently…"