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Tesla Model S CPO Website - Now Live
- Thread starter Benjamin Brooks
- Start date
I'm sure this has been answered, but reading 4500+ posts would take weeks. 
What's with some pre-driven inventory cars being so cheap? I can get a sub-$1000/month lease on an almost fully loaded P90D with only 2k miles on it. Some with that same mile range are $300 more per month. Are some cars in worse condition than others? It seems too good to be true. A new 90D is a bit more than that for some reason.
Example:
Model S P90D 137733 | Tesla
What's with some pre-driven inventory cars being so cheap? I can get a sub-$1000/month lease on an almost fully loaded P90D with only 2k miles on it. Some with that same mile range are $300 more per month. Are some cars in worse condition than others? It seems too good to be true. A new 90D is a bit more than that for some reason.
Example:
Model S P90D 137733 | Tesla
We've been soft shopping for a vehicle for months now. We've been happy with our VW TDI Sportwagen and what it can haul, but as soon as a buy-back became a possibility, we started looking. Thought about getting a Tesla, but the price was out of our budget since we are saving to build a home. Test drove an Audi E-Tron and a Volvo V60. I also checked out the Tesla CPO site a couple times, but everything was $55+ last winter. We really liked the E-Tron and were just waiting on the 2017s since they will have the Virtual Dash option. Audi released a spec sheet and in order to get the Virtual Dash, you have to get the Prestige model, which starts at around $47,000. Our other vehicle is a Chevy Volt and we already have a LV2 charger installed at home.
Perusing the CPO site a couple weeks ago, I saw a 2013 S60 with the options we wanted, in Seattle for $47,200. The wife and I discussed it for about 10 minutes then put a deposit down. Now I don't like buying site-unseen so we called the local CPO rep and made an appointment to check it out. The care was in great shape, inside and out. I kept checking the CPO site just in case something else came up and sure enough, an 85 became available the next day. I made another appointment to check it out before transferring our deposit and I'm glad I did. It was in terrible condition, inside and out. Now I know they will clean it up, but I wasn't going to take the chance of them not fixing this or that, so we stuck with our original car.
I did notice that the screen bezel was scratched on the bottom and it was not something that Tesla would fix according to our rep Carol. I opted to pay the $300 to get it replaced and at the same time, upgraded to LTE. I also purchased the all-weather floor mats for the cabin and rear. I had to pay for those upgrades up-front though and they weren't rolled into the loan.
Financing through Alliant was really easy and my contact John Yu was quick to respond to my questions. Everything was finalized within a day or two, and we even signed the documents on our phones in the theater before our movie started last Friday. Ahhh...the future....
Originally we were quoted "up to four weeks" for the reconditioning, but after our loan was finalized on Friday I got an email from Lexi, our delivery specialist, that it would be ready on Tuesday! Booked the earliest appointment since the wife works overnights. We arrived yesterday at the Seattle service center in Sodo and were treated like we were buying new. They had a placard with my name and were just rolling out my car. She looked fantastic. Went through the how-toos and signed the remaining paperwork and we were on our way. We even got a little bag with an umbrella and a mug. Sweet! In a few hours I'm taking her down to get the windows tinted.
Perusing the CPO site a couple weeks ago, I saw a 2013 S60 with the options we wanted, in Seattle for $47,200. The wife and I discussed it for about 10 minutes then put a deposit down. Now I don't like buying site-unseen so we called the local CPO rep and made an appointment to check it out. The care was in great shape, inside and out. I kept checking the CPO site just in case something else came up and sure enough, an 85 became available the next day. I made another appointment to check it out before transferring our deposit and I'm glad I did. It was in terrible condition, inside and out. Now I know they will clean it up, but I wasn't going to take the chance of them not fixing this or that, so we stuck with our original car.
I did notice that the screen bezel was scratched on the bottom and it was not something that Tesla would fix according to our rep Carol. I opted to pay the $300 to get it replaced and at the same time, upgraded to LTE. I also purchased the all-weather floor mats for the cabin and rear. I had to pay for those upgrades up-front though and they weren't rolled into the loan.
Financing through Alliant was really easy and my contact John Yu was quick to respond to my questions. Everything was finalized within a day or two, and we even signed the documents on our phones in the theater before our movie started last Friday. Ahhh...the future....
Originally we were quoted "up to four weeks" for the reconditioning, but after our loan was finalized on Friday I got an email from Lexi, our delivery specialist, that it would be ready on Tuesday! Booked the earliest appointment since the wife works overnights. We arrived yesterday at the Seattle service center in Sodo and were treated like we were buying new. They had a placard with my name and were just rolling out my car. She looked fantastic. Went through the how-toos and signed the remaining paperwork and we were on our way. We even got a little bag with an umbrella and a mug. Sweet! In a few hours I'm taking her down to get the windows tinted.
I'm sure this has been answered, but reading 4500+ posts would take weeks.
What's with some pre-driven inventory cars being so cheap? I can get a sub-$1000/month lease on an almost fully loaded P90D with only 2k miles on it. Some with that same mile range are $300 more per month. Are some cars in worse condition than others? It seems too good to be true. A new 90D is a bit more than that for some reason.
Example:
Model S P90D 137733 | Tesla
Discounting was something like $1000 per month of age on the lot - as well as 1 dollar per mile driven as a loaner/demo. Deeper discounting is also available if you bring a salesperson cookies before the test drive.
For 137733.
- Vin date was 4/6 which was within a block of pre-assigned inventory (137700-137743)
- production would have been soon after to make the mid-may placement as inventory.
- offered online at 2016-05-17 so that is 2 months, $2000
- 2549 miles driven $2549
- total discount on that math is 4549.
- original sticker $116350 offered now $100,350. 16k discount.
Hmmm - the math has changed here. Seems to be more like $4/mile and $2000/month. Or possibly $3000/month, $2 mile. Or $4000/month, $1 mile. A few others at Seattle are discounted $20k.
Use https://ev-cpo.com/ and look at the historical prices under the delta sign (triangle) near the price.
Honestly, search the inventory - why custom order and pay sticker price? All the inventory cars offer full incentive application.
136459 (A Ludicrous mode model) was 136k now down to 115k.
128612 even better - from 143k down to 115k.
Try this - sort the whole ev-cpo.com based on Vin #s and you can see how the blocks of Vin #s were assigned roughly the same time. If you merge those US ones with Canada and Europe, you can find big blocks of Vins ordered up in March Such as 134804 through 136924. Bunch in that range (mixed in with regular custom orders, of course). I don't know if this applies to their statement about Q1 being 45% more Model S "Net Orders" over Q1 2015 - however, if Net orders means "does not include inventory cars to be built" then it would not. I just don't know what "net orders" means.
By the way, speaking of P90D - a LOT of the inventory laid out recently are P90D. I expect them to be discounting them ongoing through the end of the year. I can't see why someone would order a brand new one and pay sticker price when the number of inventory P90D and P90DL being discounted is quite large.
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All of these are classics models, that is pre nose cone refresh. Aren't they? And, all of them were demo or floor models.
And that's absolutely fine, taking $30k off a car for some little cosmetic stuff is very palatable. I do believe most of them with more than 50 miles are demo models. The two that we've test driven so far were in great shape and I assume to do some sort of refurbishing (for bigger stuff) before shipping them out anyway.
Not entirely sure on that, but if discount is more than $10k, probably old design. I have seen Vin #s below that such as 136132 (Netherlands, part of the block of inventory 134804 onward through 136924 all assigned roughly 3/30/16 ahead of the refresh) showing up in Europe as the new fascia in the stock-pictures online. Here is Netherlands and also UK - both showing 136xxx as turning point for new fascia. That is lower than 136349 (in the US, P90D old fascia).
Occasion Kopen | Tesla Nederland
Buy a new Tesla today | Tesla UK
Appears that US Vin #s going into inventory were built with old fascia with higher Vin #s than the new refreshes destined for Europe. A mix within that 2000-Vin# range. Now, the logic is that they built a bunch of P90D and P90DL with old fascia to enable pretty cool demo cars which could also be discounted heavily to move them to eager impulse buyers who wanted P90DL and P90D without caring about the new look. Discounting the "Ludicrous" option is pretty easy as it is generally a software switch plus the bigger contactor. The new-look inventory in the USA used for demos/loaners are not yet online through the "buy new" links.
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I don't think that they are building new cars with old fascia now. It takes way too many changes to manufacturing line to switch between those.
What do you think of MS and MX production and delivery numbers for July and Q3?
mudmutt
Member
Looking at EV-CPO and I've noticed cars that were off the site for a while and now back on. Is this potentially because someone backed out of the reservation or they turned down the vehicle upon inspection?
For example, I'm looking for any 85 with a RFS. There are two that I saw before, were no longer available, and are now back on the site and still show Date/Time Added dates of Jan 5th and Jan 6th of this year.
If someone moved onto another vehicle because they found a better match, that's one thing. If they turned down the car for condition and now it's back available, that's another. However since these cars were originally up in January, I would have thought they would have been in someone's hands long ago.
For example, I'm looking for any 85 with a RFS. There are two that I saw before, were no longer available, and are now back on the site and still show Date/Time Added dates of Jan 5th and Jan 6th of this year.
If someone moved onto another vehicle because they found a better match, that's one thing. If they turned down the car for condition and now it's back available, that's another. However since these cars were originally up in January, I would have thought they would have been in someone's hands long ago.
I'm sure this has been answered, but reading 4500+ posts would take weeks.
What's with some pre-driven inventory cars being so cheap? I can get a sub-$1000/month lease on an almost fully loaded P90D with only 2k miles on it. Some with that same mile range are $300 more per month. Are some cars in worse condition than others? It seems too good to be true. A new 90D is a bit more than that for some reason.
Example:
Model S P90D 137733 | Tesla
Yes, I've noticed this, and it has made the decision to purchase a new loaded 75D vs a slightly used P90D quite a bit trickier... I mean, I love the look of the refresh, buuut 75D vs P90D??
AMPd
Well-Known Member
Super_Popular
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I mentioned "built" which means in April, after fascia change they built-out a bunch of old fascia for US locations to clean out old stock of inventory old-front-ends, looks like almost all were P90D as they hit the lots in about mid-to-end May. After that, all the Vin #s 140xxx and higher are new fascia, some at my local store are not yet online for sale but are on the lot.
Q3 delivery numbers or July? Running along probably similar to slightly above Q2. The MS60 is really popular on the TMC spreadsheet. Perhaps that helps raise unit-sales numbers. Q3 MS sales will DEFINITELY be better than Q2. If not, oh boy... Who knows what the future brings. I just went to the web site now and see that if order either an MS or MX I can have end of September delivery. However over on the MX forum here, four people have posted October delivery of their MX60D. So, maybe that end of September MX offer is not entirely right. Many recent end of July deliveries are coming off end of June confirmation dates. So, under 30 days from confirm to delivery is not out of the ordinary for Model S.
Two things to consider. Buying or leasing new offers a pretty good deal. Buying CPO used also is great as you can get what was a $130k P85+ back in 2013 now for in the $60k range. CPO may be able to capture some buyers who would order new. Then the lot sales of inventory cars could also slow up orders a bit. Seems like it is pretty "flat" overall in terms of the rate at which the TMC spreadsheet shows Vin # s given out to people. Right about 1000/wk. Model X is slightly below that - as they work down the backlog and work toward the 2200/wk production rate indicated for sometime in Q3.
AMPd
Well-Known Member
Way better resale considering it already took the first depreciation hit.
I guess it is fair to assume production and delivery of 2000/wk for both MS and MX for Q3. We have about 1000 to 1500 extra from Q2, that is above and beyond normal in-transit, will be delivered in Q3. So, I am looking at anywhere from 24,000 to 27,000 deliveries for Q3.
Anything over 20,000 deliveries in Q3 would be optimistic. As units are built for Europe and Asia, they will be in-transit as well toward the end of Q3. And during production, numerous inventory cars were built as well. I would try to use a realistic delivery expectation somewhere between 19k and 22k.
The primary driving numbers are:
- how many old-fascia MS can they sell at a discount in Q3.
- how many new orders came in from custom-order customers during late Q2 through Q3.
- will enough Model X confirm for Q3 delivery or how close to backlog build for US buyers are we?
Vin # issued during late Q2 into Q3 now is roughly flat - 1000/wk Model S (and can include inventory to be placed at sales sites).
For Model X, Vin #s in June were 3300 and just about 3000 through the last day or two in July. So, similar 1000/wk Vin #s. but how many are europe? How many are inventory builds? I will say an "average throughput number" of 1800/wk is good for Q3. They may do a big-week of 2200 but I do not see that being sustained. There are 13 selling weeks in Q3 and so that leaves me with 23400 total build possible, in-transit hang-over into Q4 maybe similar to Q3. So, I round that down to maybe 20,000 with some sales lots filling up with more inventory as time goes by. Surprise to upside with 21000. Leaving 29000 sales needed in Q4.
The primary driving numbers are:
- how many old-fascia MS can they sell at a discount in Q3.
- how many new orders came in from custom-order customers during late Q2 through Q3.
- will enough Model X confirm for Q3 delivery or how close to backlog build for US buyers are we?
Vin # issued during late Q2 into Q3 now is roughly flat - 1000/wk Model S (and can include inventory to be placed at sales sites).
For Model X, Vin #s in June were 3300 and just about 3000 through the last day or two in July. So, similar 1000/wk Vin #s. but how many are europe? How many are inventory builds? I will say an "average throughput number" of 1800/wk is good for Q3. They may do a big-week of 2200 but I do not see that being sustained. There are 13 selling weeks in Q3 and so that leaves me with 23400 total build possible, in-transit hang-over into Q4 maybe similar to Q3. So, I round that down to maybe 20,000 with some sales lots filling up with more inventory as time goes by. Surprise to upside with 21000. Leaving 29000 sales needed in Q4.
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You subtracted 3400 (23400-20000) from the delivery estimates to account for intransit, but forgot to add the about 5500 intransit vehicles from Q2.
There will always be intransit vehicles, about 2 weeks worth. At the current delivery rate, 3000 to 4000 intransit is appropriate. So, Q3 deliveries will actually be ~25500 (23400+ ~2000 extra from Q2)
Great write-up. I test drove the new Volt (had a first gen Volt for a 3 year lease - great car) in the Spring and also test drove the A3 E-tron. The second gen volt is great, but it ended up feeling very similar in the drive to my gen 1. As a "car guy" it just wasn't doing it for me (sadly, as it is probably the best all around electric in many respects). I actually did like the way the A3 E-tron rode and drove, but at the end of the day its tech compared relatively poorly to the Volt (not that important), and I just kept coming back to the "16 miles of range" which put it in the "why bother getting electric?" category.
Honestly, if the A3 E-tron had 25 or 30 miles of range, I probably would have been driving one now (or at least waiting for the refreshed 2017 virtual cockpit). Waiting for the new Volt (courtesy of GM's delayed introduction of the 2017 to middle America) opened the door to getting to test drive the E-tron and, of course, waiting to see if the "right" CPO Tesla would come along.
Good info!! Hmm, why do they produce so much P90D inventory? Could it be to boost the loan amount they get with their ABL?
Oh, wait, don't tell me! P90D is produced on a different line that is not "production constrained".
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