As I recall, we were cheering when S production reached 400 per week six month after the first deliveries. CT is doing much better based on the number of months the CT has been delivered.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
They aren't making that anymore as he talked about.
One of the primary motivations of the ____ Day events is recruiting. They're engineer limited for their upcoming products. They want to get bright minds intrigued enough to apply for work at Tesla. This works for exciting projects such as next gen batteries, robotics and A.I. and they have to host these events very early in the development cycle as that's when the engineering talent is needed. This style of recruitment won't work well for a next-gen vehicle that's primary purpose is to be affordable. It's a little less glamorous (although no less important).
I'd say they're highly unlikely to have a ________ Day for the next-gen vehicle. My sincere hope is they have a great reveal event for the next gen vehicle and at the end of the presentation they state that orders start today and deliveries begin next week.
Didn't drew say they just switched the Model Y to the 4680 CT cells?
If anyone doubts that nVidia is competing in a league of its own for AI compute, I suggest you check out the latest training results: Leading MLPerf Inference v3.1 Results with NVIDIA GH200 Grace Hopper Superchip Debut | NVIDIA Technical Blog
Summary: Google's TPUs got knocked down and there are simply no other competitors currently. This is why Dojo isn't being used for production training at Tesla.
Summary: Google's TPUs got knocked down and there are simply no other competitors currently. This is why Dojo isn't being used for production training at Tesla.
No. He was talking about switching the battery lines from MY to Cybercell.
Huh? Elon specifically said that Dojo is being used for training.
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Earnings discussion topics:
Project Redwood (Compact Crossover) Machines that make the machines
Project Dojo - the SaaS Product? Low expectations?
Need for Tesla Advertising / PR Japanese awareness, low spend but great website click hit rate
HW4 & HW5 Discussion HW5 design almost complete plus stationary computing capability
Tesla AI day Update this year but wary of copying
Elon Compensation Package
The demise of the OEMs Demise or demolished?
Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot Customer deliveries 2025
FSD V12 (end to end AI) Rolling out to everyone in coming weeks
Pretty great call.
Project Redwood (Compact Crossover) Machines that make the machines
Project Dojo - the SaaS Product? Low expectations?
Need for Tesla Advertising / PR Japanese awareness, low spend but great website click hit rate
HW4 & HW5 Discussion HW5 design almost complete plus stationary computing capability
Tesla AI day Update this year but wary of copying
Elon Compensation Package
The demise of the OEMs Demise or demolished?
Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot Customer deliveries 2025
FSD V12 (end to end AI) Rolling out to everyone in coming weeks
Pretty great call.
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Ya.
That being said every time Dojo has come up the last few calls it really feels like the wind flies out of the sails.
Somethings either very wrong or they feel like sand bagging the hell out of it.
The system came on line awhile ago and it seems like it’s not considered a success
GhostSkater
Member
I don't know if mentioned before in this sea of messages, but Auto GM excluding regulatory credits rose by 0.9%, after many quarters of going down
Good trend to see, specially with all the price cuts
Good trend to see, specially with all the price cuts
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
They mentioned working on future versions of Dojo... if it was going really badly they would just abandon the project....
Dojo isn't just hardware, there is supporting software, a lot to debug and optimise...
It is a bit like batteries,,,, 4680s didn't mean Tesla would stop using competitors batteries, sometimes the competing product is the best option and the fastest path to the desired result.
Would they start the Dojo project knowing what they know now? That is the difficult question to answer... one risk is that competing product becomes high priced or hard to get.
Will that be the trough with workers getting pay increases and COGS reductions mostly wrung out? I guess time will tell
Doesn't seem like rates will be coming down to any great extent in the near future though
Based on the way Elon speaks about it it seems to me the least likely publicly discussed project to succeed. The he says the potential rewards are high, indicating it’s worth trying and failing rather than just giving up because it’s hard.
None of this indicates it’s going well, just that it’s not going nowhere.
Edit: realistically speaking success here means that can eat NVDAs - a company with a high market cap than Tesla - lunch via a sass service. That’s a pretty big reward.
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b/w FSD and Optimus, Tesla sure needs a lot of NN compute. So even if Dojo is inferior to nVidia, I am sure it will find many uses and will be improved along the way.
Was good to hear that the chips in the cars are Tesla based already.
TSLA has underperformed QQQ by some 57% since January 1, 2021.
Perhaps you shouldn't hold TSLA in your portfolio.
This is just my opinion, but I'd say short term we'll be below or around $200 for some time now, and likely staying below $300 for maybe a year or two. With big growth on hold our PE will probably compress even further. That said, production will probably grow by something like 10-20% this year and COGS should either drop a bit or stay flat, plus Megapack production will likely double again for 2024, so we should still see growth across the board, just smaller growth for the next year or two. 2025 we should see CT production really kick in and true Semi production begin, so they'll both give us a bit more growth for 2025 over 2024.
My feeling is TSLA will underperform the S&P500 for the next year or two, staying relatively flat and not breaking above $300. That's just my gut feeling based on my Excel model inputted with the numbers I expect us to see.
Now, if Gen3 does start production in late 2025, then growth is back on the table for us! And when Optimus starts production and sales we should see surprisingly massive growth for TSLA. The problem is we do not know when Optimus will begin production, this is why I'm simply HOLDing rather than converting to VOO or some other growth stock. I don't want to miss the runup when it happens, because it WILL happen.
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