Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SOULPEDL]

That's what I was thinking.

80% was always plenty here. Slows after that and hurts the battery.

 

[printf42]

OT:

The 80% limit on superchargers is quite frustrating. Can't Tesla have a more elegant solution?

For example, if there are 8 stalls and only 5 cars nearby, just remove the limit.

Did you really experienced capping?
I visited East Palo Alto a few days ago when there were ~30% stalls occupied, even though the screen prompted "80% limit because it's a high utilization location", it did allow me to charge to ~90% or so, and I guess it will allow me to continue to 100% if I wanted to.

 

[N5329K]

I don’t actually have to guess since I use NOA all the time and it works exactly as seen in the video. Exactly.

I think we have a case here of yes and. Those who look at NOA performance and say it’s total crap are picking their data carefully to prove what they already think, or what they think will draw the most clicks. And those who look at NOA performance and say everything is fine here, no problem at all, are doing pretty much the same thing. To me, the most persuasive argument is that NOA works as advertised much of the time and is safer than many (most?) drivers for much of the time. And when it doesn’t (those pesky edge cases), the results can be expensive, or catastrophic.
Robin

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

The 80% limit on superchargers is quite frustrating. Can't Tesla have a more elegant solution?

For example, if there are 8 stalls and only 5 cars nearby, just remove the limit.

It's not every supercharger, only on ones flagged as being super busy. But yea, I'm sure they will tweak it. For example, there are a couple in Palo Alto / San Mateo area in the SF Bay Area that are ALWAYS full and the 80% limit makes sense there.

 

[electracity]

I just watched a Clean Disruption video by Tony Seba for the third time. Now he seems to be more focused on Transportation as a Service. He predicts all cars will be electric and sold business to business, and Individual car ownership will be greatly reduced. My prediction is Tesla will stop selling cars to anyone in a few years and cut out the middle man in Tony’s model. Get them while you can! Time Horizon 2021 to 2022.

not a chance

 

[Pezpunk]

Usually if there is something surprising, people would be discussing about it months before hand.

That’s .... the opposite of a surprise?

 

[Bet TSLA]

check out Andy Slye breaking down why Tesla Model 3 is a great investment:

What an idiot. This boiled down to: I can scam the tax system! And if I leave out my biggest expense it looks like I'm making a lot of money!

Not considering the cost of depreciation of your car is absurd. He also ignores insurance issues.

I've considered doing the Lyft thing for the fun of it, increasing my opportunities to evangelize my Teslas. But it's highly unlikely it nets more than minimum wage once all costs are taken into account. Maybe under very special circumstances....

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

I'm pretty sure the 500k/year figure is outdated, as even the first reports of the Shanghai deal suggested much higher figures:

• Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory To Produce Model Y & Model 3 | CleanTechnica

That's the environmental feasibility study for "phase 1", which cites 250k/year (does anyone have a copy or a direct link to that study?). The current building is clearly only using a quarter of the available land, and four phases add up to 1 million cars/year capacity.

This also derives from the 3k/week figure for phase 1: the 3k/week figure has been announced for Model 3 capacity only. Conservatively assuming equal Model Y capacity gives 6k/week, which over four phases gives 24k/week, or ~1.2m/year. (But Model Y capacity might be double the Model 3 capacity, as originally planned.)

But I'm pretty sure I saw the 30k/week figure somewhere semi-reliable too, to answer @DaveT's question on sourcing of that figure.

Room for production number and plan for production are different. It's just like I've never seen numbers other than 500K.
I will wait till a reliable or semi-reliable source confirmation.

In the future, I think it will be much more than the current official 500K. But Tesla does not have to announce that now, most people, except for us, won't take bigger numbers serious any way.
Once Tesla gets to that 0.5 million per year, 1 or 2 million is going to sound achievable to more ears.
I think it's the right decision.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

What an idiot. This boiled down to: I can scam the tax system! And if I leave out my biggest expense it looks like I'm making a lot of money!

Not considering the cost of depreciation of your car is absurd. He also ignores insurance issues.

I've considered doing the Lyft thing for the fun of it, increasing my opportunities to evangelize my Teslas. But it's highly unlikely it nets more than minimum wage once all costs are taken into account. Maybe under very special circumstances....

Just another YouTube celebrity, what can we expect?

 

[Compton]

Potential solution to the 80% supercharger thingy; increase price progressively (and significantly) for every minute after the 80% level has been reached. Apply progressive price increase to the idling fee as well. Warn the user every X minutes about the elevated price and the accumulated fee.

 

[AlMc]

Chinese announcement...more sizzle than steak. Hope I am wrong.

Grill Steak GIF by LongHorn Steakhouse - Find & Share on GIPHY

 

[Skryll]

Just saw an Elizabeth Warren post promoting the ‘musk rakes in $2.3b’ story. What’s a good write up to post as a reply.

 

[mrmage]

Depends.

People don't really know how safe they are - and have no way to know how safe a particular FSD is. They will have to just trust the numbers being put out by the companies (or regulators). For eg. if regulators (or "media") say average crash rate is 4.2/Million Miles - but a particular FSD only crashes 2.1/Million Miles i.e. it is twice as safe as ab average person will they feel safe and ride it ?

Again, like so many other new technologies, there will be people who will take the dive earlier than others and then the last 10% will come when they have no choice. There is no one size fits all here.

There’s so much fud now because Tesla is an existential threat to oil and auto industries. When people start dying in fsd cars, the media will play it up just like they play up tesla fires now, to pander to those parties (aka “advertisers”) and to get more clicks.

Even if fsd is a few times safer, people will feel that fsd is unsafe because the media will focus on fsd deaths. The fud will be incredible even if fsd is 10x safer. At worst, legislation will kneecap fsd evs.

We don’t live in a Star Trek universe. If vested interests managed to delay action against an existential threat to civilization (climate change), it’s easy to believe they will delay the broadest uses for fsd evs.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I'm going to guess it's just something to announce the exterior structure of GF3 is complete.

Perhaps they'll also open orders for signature editions of the first few thousand Shanghai-built Model 3s.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Tesla currently makes the motors and drivetrains at GF1, correct? Is the plan to also build drivetrains at GF3?

Dan

Probably. Elon said GF3 would be equivalent to Fremont and GF1 combined.

 

[CorneliusXX]

What an idiot. This boiled down to: I can scam the tax system! And if I leave out my biggest expense it looks like I'm making a lot of money!

Not considering the cost of depreciation of your car is absurd. He also ignores insurance issues.

I've considered doing the Lyft thing for the fun of it, increasing my opportunities to evangelize my Teslas. But it's highly unlikely it nets more than minimum wage once all costs are taken into account. Maybe under very special circumstances....

This is mostly tax arbitrage as he is claiming cost for miles he would be travelling anyway but would otherwise be ineligible to claim. He should come out well ahead.

 

[jerry33]

Potential solution to the 80% supercharger thingy; increase price progressively (and significantly) for every minute after the 80% level has been reached. Apply progressive price increase to the idling fee as well. Warn the user every X minutes about the elevated price and the accumulated fee.

In other words, punish users when there is a 200 or more mile gap between superchargers? Not everywhere is California where there is a SC every two blocks.

 

[ruralectric]

Perhaps they'll also open orders for signature editions of the first few thousand Shanghai-built Model 3s.

This is a possibility, although a Signature Model 3 in Shanghai would be inconsistent with launch of US Model 3 production, nor with the cost cutting objectives of Model 3 production. But the graphic has and messaging is very similar to previous "unveilings".

Suppose they were in fact to unveil pricing and begin taking orders for GF3 vehicles. Would that even make sense given that Chinese customers can already order both Model 3 and Model Y on Tesla's existing website? It would certainly be newsworthy if the announcement did at least reveal new pricing.

 

[capster]

Shares that are not part of the float can’t easily be traded they are generally restricted, owned by the company as part of employee compensation plans, owned by insiders etc. your shares are part of the float because technically you can sell the shares at any point without delay when the market is open. It does not matter what your intent is just if you can.

Strictly speaking, it matters a great deal what percentage of the float isn’t in fact going to be traded though it matters little what you like to call it.

Nailing this percentage, if it were high enough, would give one a considerable trading advantage.

If you doubt this, try this thought experiment. Imagine there was one person who held the entire float and they had no intention of selling, ever. Be fun for them, huh?

Of course, there isn’t one such individual, but there are like minded individuals.

 

[RobStark]

In other words, punish users when there is a 200 or more mile gap between superchargers? Not everywhere is California where there is a SC every two blocks.

Tesla is not instituting this policy everywhere.

Most are likely in California, Norway and Chinese cities.

In other words, very busy supercharger stations.