Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Steve m]

I am not quite convinced about the demand price relation you mention.

If you have oversupply in a market where demand decreases but you still have the same cap ex than prices go up although demand is weak.

Let me give you an example: when water demand goes down in Germany prices for Water go up not down because the overall costs of the infrastructure needs to be covered from less consumers.

Sound strange I know but its the logic behind. In case you say water is not gas than you are right but the infrastructure to supply gas is similar.

So my prediction is for the long run when more and more EVs are sold and ICE cars are not only less bought but the amount of used ICE cars goes down as well at that stage gas prices will go up.

You are comparing a regulated monopoly to a marketplace with multiple competitors.

 

[Fact Checking]

Also more Gas Stations will close, so will have to drive further to fill up gas ...

Indeed, lots of negative processes will start once EVs start denting crude oil sales (currently they are on the verge to be a factor):

• As in Noway as EV sales are way up the density of gas stations is decreasing. Longer refill distance = higher effective cost.
• More and more areas are going to ban gas cars altogether. Longer routes and less convenience.
• There's going to be social stigma attached to gas cars. Those who could afford an EV: "Why are you still polluting and gassing people like a Nazi?". For people who cannot afford EVs the stigma will be a reminder of their lower socioeconomic status. There will be a tipping point where even people who don't care about the environment will give in to peer pressure - helped by the fact that EVs are much better cars.
• As crude oil demand first levels out and then starts dropping the first trillion dollar industry collapses: oil exploration and drilling. This is a debt driven, leveraged industry vulnerable to drop in demand.
• The remaining producers will use their decades of supply. As exploration goes down, pricing power of existing oil producers increases. Depending on the speed of contraction there is a possibility for crude oil oversupply (glut) with collapsing prices. Another possibility is further monopolization of supply and a last act of monoply price maximization.
• For ICE OEMs it would be better if gas prices dropped, because that would delay the EV conversion a bit and would allow them a more orderly exit from the ICE market.

It's not going to be a stable process in countries that are dominated by oil extraction. (@neroden and @ReflexFunds might concur or disagree.)

 

[gora321]

1. Demand problem again? Starting from roadster.
2. Increasing efficiency all the time with the speed of IT company.
3. Never bet against Elon because ELectricity is ON.

 

[mongo]

As in Noway as EV sales are way up the density of gas stations is decreasing. Longer refill distance = higher effective cost.

Only once it hits the inflection point of having no stations on your commute. The longer the commute, the longer this will take to occur. The shorter the commute, the less that extra refueling distance impacts overall cost (fewer refill trips) .

Making those in rural areas ripe for solar + PW + EV .

 

[reddit_tl]

This guy knows what's up.

Tesla is still competing with time to position itself for different sectors of the market. The cutting of staff clearly reflects that and I think it also shows increasing efficiency.

Making calls next week for sure.

 

[gora321]

Demand problem!

Historys on Twitter

 

[Fred42]

Someone on TMC posted that more than half of M3 AWD and P sales were coming from new customers, not reservation holders.
If so, it's not clear why continuing U.S. demand for high margin versions should decline as steeply as it has. Word of mouth and test joy rides to lots of family and friends not following Tesla closely, was expected to spark and maintain or expand AWD and P sales.
I would not be shocked if this word of mouth advertising effect is being tamped down by potential customers also hearing about the abysmal customer experiences which are so widespread. I suspect many are told by owners the car is great, just hold off a year until the company gets it's service act together again.

I wish someone Elon would listen to could get it across that this situation needs immediate attention, not slow improvement. I've been embarrassed to hear details of the poor communications, etc, etc. from a good friend who bought her M3 this fall.

Over the holidays my CA relatives with discretionary income told me they will not buy a Tesla 'because repairs take months.' As other posters have said, mainstream customers will not have the tolerance for perceived challenges that many previous customers had. Any campaign by Tesla to change their image should be preceded by fixing the problems.

A question. For areas where Tesla is not permitted to have a service center or additional SC's, like MI and upstate NY, could Tesla contract with a company, perhaps an existing retail chain, to provide this function, perhaps in addition to some other line of business? No vehicle sales. Is the obstacle a legal one (because of the contract does it run foul of the constraint on OEM's, or does it have to count as a 'dealer'?) or is the problem that it's inconsistent with vertical integration?

 

[jbcarioca]

...
I would not be shocked if this word of mouth advertising effect is being tamped down by potential customers also hearing about the abysmal customer experiences which are so widespread. I suspect many are told by owners the car is great, just hold off a year until the company gets it's service act together again.

I wish someone Elon would listen to could get it across that this situation needs immediate attention, not slow improvement. I've been embarrassed to hear details of the poor communications, etc, etc. from a good friend who bought her M3 this fall.

I love this post but hate the facts. When I switched from my beloved P85D I was dismayed by the shoddy delivery mess. The car itself was amazing, although the badging has not yet appeared. Sadly, my car was damaged in an accident caused by an inept driver. I was a passenger seeing it in slow motion but helpless. That was on Sept 14 last year. The car has been in a body shop ever since, with multiple parts requiring multiple replacements because of Tesla errors and delays. they cannot get it right and even are very difficult to reach, Executive Escalation on this subject now ignored.

To my knowledge six reservations have not yet been made into orders because of this. One of those just bought an I-Pace instead. I remain a bull, but I am convinced that sad stories such as this are causing orders to be deferred and reservations cancelled. I remain hopeful that Tesla will fix this. If Tesla repeats this stupidity in Germany and/or Japan it might just be terminal. Right now I am a very worried bull. All of Tesla must know, but no actions seems to be being taken to fix the delivery/service/parts messes.

 

[lklundin]

The Glovis Cosmos has left Pier 80, ETA Panama is Jan 27, 09:00 (UTC).

Just a quick update to say that the first European Model 3 shipment (Glovis Captain) has reached the Pacific entrance to the Panama Canal and is at this time waiting there. This shipment is expected to arrive at Zeebrugge on Feb. 2nd.

The second European Model 3 shipment (Glovis Cosmos) is south west of Tijuana with its ETA at Panama next Sunday.
This shipment is reportedly headed for Norway,
Tesla

A third car carrier Glovis Symphony is set to arrive in San Francisco Tuesday.

 

[Unpilot]

Reading and thinking about some post's from this weekend.

Demand problem....wow so much to say...but it is summed up for me like this: The problem stated by the bears/shorts always takes a static view point. There is no room in their thesis for innovation and cost reduction. They seem to look at (or a better term is cherry pick data points) to support this nonsense argument about demand. There is NO demand problem nor will there be for the foreseeable future. The rest of the freaking world awaits for gawd's sake.

Cost to charge vs gas cost.....again wow more nonsense. No ICE EVER charges at home. Even considering infrastructure and source of electricity the TRUE cost of gas/diesel is grossly one sided. Read here The Hidden Costs of Fossil Fuels

The cost to generate electricity is also not static ...tends to be more localized and will get cheaper.
Trying to understand the motivation of people who post nonsense about demand and cost to fuel car's leads me to conclude I should go take my dog for a walk.

At least she is an honest creature.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Re working *in* the ship: how much time would Tesla save if they had a crew onboard? Could be worth it?

My brother did a trip from Barcelona to New York in a cargo ship for "fun", had plenty of time for his writing and drawing, but of course is not that an easy life, and you can't always work (it depends by the sea).
I'm don't know, for example, if cars are fixed to the deck for safety -storms in the ocean are something to be afraid of.
Tesla could upgrade crew living conditions with a better cook, better food, and customizing the rooms.

I'm sure @KarenRei knows a lot about ships, she could tell us if this is feasible or just a naive dream.

I did a Washington to Alaska ferry trip with a car once. Passengers were only allowed below deck to access their vehicles (and walk their dogs) while we were in port. I imagine the rules depend on the specific carrier based on what safety measures are in place.

I have an even better idea for transporting cars to China. Use the boring company to drill a tunnel through the center of the earth. Drop on a model 3 in and it pops out on the other side using nothing more than gravity. I don’t know why Elon hasn’t hired me yet...

 

[capster]

Honestly, this might be unpopular opinion but I think people might sell because they are expecting to get back in at an even lower price. I think even the long term investors are starting to think this way. The herd is recognizing the chart pattern and the swings are becoming a self-fulfilled prophecy.

Don’t get hypnotized.

 

[ABCTG]

Just a quick update to say that the first European Model 3 shipment (Glovis Captain) has reached the Pacific entrance to the Panama Canal and is at this time waiting there. This shipment is expected to arrive at Zeebrugge on Feb. 2nd.

Maybe it can be sighted on of the Panama Canal webcams

Multimedia - PanCanal.com

 

[printf42]

OT:
Engineering Explained guy traded his Model 3 MR for a Performance.

Main complaint about the MR:

• Delay to reach peak torque from standing still(he speculated that's due to software dial back to avoid the torque ripple of permanent magnet motors)
• Even after motor is up-to-speed, paddle response still have a noticeable delay in it.
• Not able to turn off Traction Control

So he traded it in for a performance, and it fixed all three of these complains.

• The front induction motor filed in the gap and provide instance response from both stand still and while the car is already moving
• Track Mode dials back traction control enough to allow enthusiast have fun breaking traction limits.

To none-enthusiast drivers who will use chile mode anyway, all three of these complain won’t be any problem, in fact they are like chile mode half done.

But for enthusiast who was interested in Model 3, you can expect this video persuade them stop waiting for MR/SR and go with at least Dual Motor or all the way to Performance if they care about Track Mode.

 

[Navin]

don't be surprised to see a bunch of shorts coming on this forum tomorrow evening to keep the negative narrative going.. As for me - I doubled my holdings in TESLA on Friday and took advantage of a big sale.. lowering expenses while ramping production and moving up the s curve is bullish AF. Europe deliveries and China on track are also good signs.. Coming out after the close with earnings date much earlier is also bullish IMO.. Planning for a big ass up day tues.. Trade em well..

Here is a reference to prior big down days.. If history is a proxy - should see a 10%+ bounce Tuesday.
Investors betting against Tesla's stock have had 7 really good days. Here's what's behind them

We can circle back here after close on Tuesday and see how well this prediction plays out.. Always do your own due diligence and this is NOT AN ADVICE to do anything but watch out for the short nonsense and enjoy the circus..

 

[Navin]

Fantastic, thank you very much!

Here's a tabulated version, sorted by revenue value (from bearish to bullish), and left off the irrelevant .1 million digits:

Evercore

UBS

JMP

Goldman Sachs

Undisclosed

Wolfe Research

BofAML

Deutsche

Roth

JPMorgan

Undisclosed

Undisclosed

Thomson First Call Consensus

Elazar Advisors

Macquiarie

RBC

Wedbush

Undisclosed

Piper

Oppenheimer

Needham

Canaccord

[TD2] $6,805m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,820m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,848m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,851m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,895m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,899m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,926m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,976m [/TD2] [TD2] $6,985m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,020m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,032m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,067m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,082m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,084m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,089m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,139m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,188m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,192m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,226m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,440m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,523m [/TD2] [TD2] $7,715m [/TD2]

Yes, and it appears to be pretty clear to me that the shorts are trying to manipulate Thomson First Call consensus as well for Q4'18 TSLA results:

• There's evidence of significant gaming of the First Call consensus by bearish analysts, the top 2 revenue estimates are actually ALL from bearish analysts:
  • "Canaccord" initiated TSLA coverage half a year ago with a bearish outlook. They gave a number of mostly bearish interviews and stopped talking about Tesla after the positive Q3 results altogether ...
  • "Needham" of "Tesla's True Value is 'Closer to $200'" infame has the second highest revenue estimate ... Total silence from Needham after the positive Q3 earnings report.
  • "Oppenheimer" is the first genuine bullish analyst.
• Without the fake revenue entries the true median consensus would be below $7b - at around $6.8b-$6.9b...

Everyone who owns $TSLA stock, options or bonds and agrees that this is market manipulation which is harming investors, please file a SEC Investor Complaint:

SEC Investor Complaint Form​

A sample complaint could be something like:

Suspected illegal market manipulation: two of the most bearish $TSLA analysts (Canaccord and Needham) are apparently gaming the 'Thomson First Call consensus' analyst estimates to manufacture an artificial 'miss' on $TSLA by entering artificially high Q4'2018 revenue estimates 6-8% higher than the consensus, which estimates are not consistent with their publicly bearish views of the company. Their apparent intent is to profit from any adverse price reaction, should Tesla "miss" the artificially heightened revenue consensus.

Similar suspected illegal price and market manipulation distortion of the "FactSet" consensus was performed with the January 2 Tesla (TSLA) "Delivery Report", which created a price drop from a $332 closing price on December 31 to below $300 on January 2 - a more than 10% intraday drop. Bearish analysts entered unrealistically high production estimates for Tesla, which created an artificial "consensus miss" that adversely affected investor sentiment and caused a big drop in the $TSLA price - from which short sellers profited.

As a $TSLA investor I was significantly harmed by their action.

It's a classic 'short and distort' tactic that appears to be illegal according to the Securities Act of 1933, also known as the "Truth In Securities Act".
​

I believe the SEC is obligated to at minimum read every complaint made by an investor. Even if they don't act on it, it creates a track record that later SEC administrations can use to form new policy, restrictions on short sellers, more effective regulation of Wall Street analysts, etc.

So it's helpful to file complaints even if nothing happens straight away - the squeaky wheel gets the grease, eventually.

Non-U.S. investors can file complaints as well.

(Paging @ZachShahan and @Papafox.)

Here is the email address for Mr, Gill - the wall street analyst who has a big short rating on Tesla yet has the second highest revenue estimate on TESLA.. IF anyone wants to reach out and email him asking him about his thoughts here.. I saw him on CNBC Friday - weak sauce... [email protected]

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I love this post but hate the facts. When I switched from my beloved P85D I was dismayed by the shoddy delivery mess. The car itself was amazing, although the badging has not yet appeared. Sadly, my car was damaged in an accident caused by an inept driver. I was a passenger seeing it in slow motion but helpless. That was on Sept 14 last year. The car has been in a body shop ever since, with multiple parts requiring multiple replacements because of Tesla errors and delays. they cannot get it right and even are very difficult to reach, Executive Escalation on this subject now ignored.

To my knowledge six reservations have not yet been made into orders because of this. One of those just bought an I-Pace instead. I remain a bull, but I am convinced that sad stories such as this are causing orders to be deferred and reservations cancelled. I remain hopeful that Tesla will fix this. If Tesla repeats this stupidity in Germany and/or Japan it might just be terminal. Right now I am a very worried bull. All of Tesla must know, but no actions seems to be being taken to fix the delivery/service/parts messes.

Hopefully now that they are shipping internationally it will give them time to scale up their domestic fleet support. I probably wouldn't be buying a Tesla right if it was to be my only car. Although don't they give out loaners while they are repairing your car? Maybe I would risk it. I've been in very few accidents to be worried about the auto body repair issues. There I go jinxing myself again. When will I learn?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Not again in this thread. Please, just, no. If you want a recent thread on the topic, here's a random example:

2170s for the Model S soon [Speculation]

But for just a handful of the other threads going back to 2016(!), full of people adamant that a Model S/X conversion had to, and was certain to, happen imminently, and full of disagrees to anyone who suggested otherwise:

2170 in Model S soon?
When do you think the 2170 battery comes to MX and MS?
Inside EVs 2170 in S and X at end of year
Why Model S/X will not see 2170 cells any time soon.
New Batteries for Model S
Next generation 2170 cell battery packs

I understand your point, however just because the topic has been discussed previously does not mean we should blacklist the idea from discussion when new information becomes available. The supplier of the batteries in question selling factories in the region where those batteries are made is surely enough to review the topic - even if it is speculative in nature at this point. This is in addition to recent product variation of the products that use the batteries. So we are now seeing a series of facts that, to me, are tending towards the change. I do not have another hypothesis which makes as much sense.

We are in the middle of a 3 day trading holiday - the perfect time for such idle speculation.

 

[EVNow]

An employee cares about his job not about what the company needs.

Do you even realize all the things you accuse regular employees of is actually much more true for management of 99% of companies ? Esp. for blue collar worker who find it difficult to move from company to company … they just want a stable job that pays middle class wages and decent working conditions. So, they care a lot about the long term profitability of the company, instead of quarterly profits and big fat bonus that management cares about.

 

[jbcarioca]

Hopefully now that they are shipping internationally it will give them time to scale up their domestic fleet support. I probably wouldn't be buying a Tesla right if it was to be my only car. Although don't they give out loaners while they are repairing your car? Maybe I would risk it. I've been in very few accidents to be worried about the auto body repair issues. There I go jinxing myself again. When will I learn?

My first insurance claim in >50 years of driving in >60 countries including some spectacularly fraught driving conditions. That is, you don't need to be the driver in order to have your car need body panels. Of course, if you never let anybody else drive your car...
BTW, a driver did hit my last Tesla, but there was no damage to my car that required a claim.