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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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More off topic musings: I’m waiting for sub 1000 SP to pick up some shares. Tesla has always given multiple chances at buy points in the past. In case that doesn’t happen, I’m monitoring volatility to pick up spreads or calls if it drops. If all else fails, I’ll exercise some ITM Jan calls instead of closing them.

Recent chart history suggests the opposite, namely that TSLA often only gives one buy point before never looking back. YMMV.

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I don't want to get banned, so nothing political here, but from last admin to this one, I really thought things would be different. I thought Tesla would get the spotlight, being shown to others how to do it, because ya know, climate change. But I was a fool....for those of us who have been cheering for the company since 2012, it's incredibly heart breaking to see this happening....sigh...

Previously, at least Tesla was left alone to do their own thing. For the most part.

Currently, it appears like gov is trying to "pick a winner" and the criteria are "anyone but Tesla that has UAW workers".
 
What article are you referring to ?

Sorry, read it last night, not sure which one it was.
basically they did some math and stated that he had sold enough to cover his tax expenses.(for now) .. was calculated so not sure if it was fully correct.

+ not sure if this was one I read:

Of those, Musk sold 2.8 million shares worth about $3 billion specifically to pay taxes on three tranches of stock options that he exercised this week, according to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. That means he has sold roughly $5 billion more in shares than he needs at present.
 
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Recent chart history suggests the opposite, namely that TSLA often only gives one buy point before never looking back. YMMV.

View attachment 734333

Agree! . . . and why is this? Each quarter that passes reaffirms that the dip was unwarranted.
I got tired of proclaiming "a new record" every time I published a new forecast.

Let's look at Non-GAAP Earnings as one metric:
Q1 2020 - 227m
Q2 2020 - 451m
Q3 2020 - 843m
Q4 2020 - 903m
Q1 2021 - 1.052m
Q2 2021 - 1,616m
Q3 2021 - 2,093m

And I project
Q4 2021 - 2,800m
Q1 2022 - 3,200m
Q2 2022 - 3,600m
Q3 2022 - 4,200m
Q4 2022 - 4,700m

The FUD and doubters run free in that time span that sits between quarterly earnings release dates but once the earnings get published, reality sets in again . . . .Tesla is unstoppable.
 
Agree! . . . and why is this? Each quarter that passes reaffirms that the dip was unwarranted.
I got tired of proclaiming "a new record" every time I published a new forecast.

Let's look at Non-GAAP Earnings as one metric:
Q1 2020 - 227m
Q2 2020 - 451m
Q3 2020 - 843m
Q4 2020 - 903m
Q1 2021 - 1.052m
Q2 2021 - 1,616m
Q3 2021 - 2,093m

And I project
Q4 2021 - 2,800m
Q1 2022 - 3,200,m
Q2 2022 - 3,600m
Q3 2022 - 4,200m
Q4 2022 - 4,700m

The FUD and doubters run free in that time span that sits between quarterly earnings release dates but once the earnings get published, reality sets in again . . . .Tesla is unstoppable.

Exactly. This is why I never sweat the highs and lows from day to day with TSLA. Long term the trajectory is very clear: very much upwards.
 
Not to mention Kodak leading the way to digital cameras! American innovation at it's finest.


The parallels are amazing. GM had the first modern EV, the EV1 but they terminated the project. Kodak invented the world's first digital camera but they terminated the project (because it would compete with their lucrative film processing business). Kodak went bankrupt as digital took over photography and the government did not bail them out. How long does GM have?
Xerox basically inventing Windows and then not bothering to do anything with it also ranks up there for me.
Honestly all the unearned praise heaped on Not-A-Tesla, while disappointing, has an interesting side effect:

It relaxes Tesla's competitors. Ultimately this puts Tesla even further ahead. This has little negative impact to EV adoption in general (since only Tesla knows how to make EVs in large volumes and GM has proven that they suck at it) but should have a positive impact on TSLA (and therefore my wallet) since Tesla increases their lead among competitors.
Yup. Barra et al get a little more breathing room from stockholders.
 
Agree! . . . and why is this? Each quarter that passes reaffirms that the dip was unwarranted.
I got tired of proclaiming "a new record" every time I published a new forecast.

Let's look at Non-GAAP Earnings as one metric:
Q1 2020 - 227m
Q2 2020 - 451m
Q3 2020 - 843m
Q4 2020 - 903m
Q1 2021 - 1.052m
Q2 2021 - 1,616m
Q3 2021 - 2,093m

And I project
Q4 2021 - 2,800m
Q1 2022 - 3,200,m
Q2 2022 - 3,600m
Q3 2022 - 4,200m
Q4 2022 - 4,700m

The FUD and doubters run free in that time span that sits between quarterly earnings release dates but once the earnings get published, reality sets in again . . . .Tesla is unstoppable.

~15.5 EPS for 2022... at what the street has valued Tesla at, that's ~$1700 today. The street will catch on as some point that 8.50 is just absurdly low. Even $11-12 is too low. Just a matter of time until the projections change.
 
It seems like maybe there isn’t any major selling going on? I’m starting to wonder if Elon is done with his on the market sales.
My thought on his last 2 moves being numerillogically equal and all, the fake is that one might assume the same today, prepared to load his up, then nothing. His advantage is that they can't predict his moves and my sense is to expect the unexpected. If everyone thinks he's going to sell today - maybe not then.
 
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elasalle said:
No EM share sales filings from yesterday.

Article was out, that he had already sold enough to cover his taxes.

This Elon guy has become unpredictable ;)

What article are you referring to ?
I saw it in Teslarati

 
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I saw it in Teslarati




there is some painfully bad misinformation in that link.

(like suggesting he could've avoided regular tax on the options exercise by waiting a year to sell the shares- which fundamentally misunderstands how taxation works in this case)


I'd suggest ignoring anything it has to say.
 
I don't want to get banned, so nothing political here, but from last admin to this one, I really thought things would be different. I thought Tesla would get the spotlight, being shown to others how to do it, because ya know, climate change. But I was a fool....for those of us who have been cheering for the company since 2012, it's incredibly heart breaking to see this happening....sigh...
Political effects on TSLA leading to tangible consequences... I think it is On Topic to suggest to lower level officeholders, candidates, and others in the current president's party -how badly and blatantly this (his ludicrous Mary Barra video, and his party's pro-union (imagine how GM and Ford's dealers and other legacy auto related businesses owners feel about pandering to the unions they have to try to keep at bay!) hurts lower level elections like in Virginia- (huge loss for the party); I'm planning to contact many of them.

TL;DR??

Somebody WE better WAKE THIS GUY AND HIS PARTY UP RIGHT NOW!

Or at least try to. Those in his party who just lost should be at least a bit open to education and reflection.