Tesla Vision

[GeorgeSymonds]

My 2p-worth:

Yup, but you are a pilot not an AI expert, and you are making armchair assumptions - like me

Musk said that having two sets of data - Vision and Ultrasonics - made deciding which was wrong difficult.

That doesn't mean that Vision will be the answer - clearly Musk thinks it will be - but that is my recollection of the reason given, not "cost".

I expect people will say "He was lying, its cost", but short of inside knowledge from Tesla those folk don't know that either. Its opinion, not fact, and not an expert opinion either (unless the person making the claim tells us that they are an expert)

It was radar not ultrasonics but I understand the point

The things is, what he said is pretty much rubbish. One of the many advantages of AI is that noise is effectively rejected because it does not form a statistical relationship with the events that it's influencing. The two would never be in conflict as such, thats not how AI works, and if they gave different messages models would tune themselves to resolve them. Now if he said the radar feed was insigificant as an input then it would have made sense., but thats not what he said, Others have come out and said they effectively didn't know how to get meaningful data out of the radar and why they've subsequently looked at different radar they can get data out of, thats a very different explanation.

AI isn't magic, it's just really heavy duty statistics.

 

[ACarneiro]

I think the shame in all of this is that my MYP is a really good car. I am loving driving it. BUT the frustration is from how easily it could be a great car. Re-design the wheels, give it USS and I'm buying MYPs from here on in. ....... the more supportive front seats from Berlin would be nice too

I’m in exactly the same boat.
The die hard Tesla defenders criticise me for constantly griping (and I admit that I do), but it’s mostly because I like driving my car so damn much that I find many of Tesla’s decisions that much harder to stomach.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

With aircraft it’s pretty common to have 3 sets of data and the aircraft designers/manufacturers have been getting the answers right for decades. Not sure what EM is finding so difficult.

Well with three, you can have a vote.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

I’m in exactly the same boat.
The die hard Tesla defenders criticise me for constantly griping (and I admit that I do), but it’s mostly because I like driving my car so damn much that I find many of Tesla’s decisions that much harder to stomach.

I'm with you. The stock defence from some when they can't defend a valid critisicm is to call you a hater. It's the final roll of the dice

 

[Artiste]

I'm with you. The stock defence from some when they can't defend a valid critisicm is to call you a hater. It's the final roll of the dice

Exactly. There are some who seem determined to shut down even well deserved criticism by having a personal go at the poster. It’s a bit pathetic but it doesn’t bother me.

I’m also someone who loves most aspects of my car but gets incredibly frustrated by the simple things (such as lights and wipers) that were solved decades ago. And by AP when it’s seems to be regressing rather than progressing.

Vision only doesn’t work. Everyone knows it, even those who can’t bring themselves to admit it.

 

[init6]

The things is, what he said is pretty much rubbish.

You could have stopped there

IMHO too much weight is put on what Musk says. He's a showman with a little knowledge. Best to listen to the engineers with a large slice of caveat emptor.

 

[ACarneiro]

You could have stopped there

IMHO too much weight is put on what Musk says. He's a showman with a little knowledge. Best to listen to the engineers with a large slice of caveat emptor.

You see, I also don’t buy this.
I think he probably is quite a brilliant man. Just not one you’d want to trust.

 

[init6]

If you can't trust what he says then does it matter how brilliant he is?

 

[MrBadger]

Well with three, you can have a vote.

Absolutely.

The issue is that he was probably limiting the number of data sources (in this case sensors), rather than trying to properly solve the problem - his solution was to remove a source of data rather than add source(s) of data (that use different algorithms and/or sensors) and use that redundancy to determine the most likely truth. So when that single source gets it wrong, the answer is wrong, where as 3+ sources of data, 2 or more are likely to agree so when one source is wrong, the answer is still likely to be correct, or more correct than the single wrong answer.

 

[ACarneiro]

If you can't trust what he says then does it matter how brilliant he is?

Well, yes
He can and has delivered ungodly change. But that doesn’t mean I have to trust his predictions.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

If you can't trust what he says then does it matter how brilliant he is?

In fairness if it wasn't for him Tesla wouldn't be the car company it is today and we'd all have 30 mins a day of our life back not spending time on here.

I think the maverick visionary was fine for early adopters and innovators, but as the cars are now being bought by the early majority, the values people want change. Its less about the bleeding edge for them, its about being new tech that works. And thats where it starts to go wrong, some still hang on every word even when he's spinning a tail. I think he deliberately made false promises about FSD progress and many other things as it was more palteable than the truth. Early adopters didn't want to hear back in late 2016 "FSD will be 10 years away" - they didn't even want to hear "2 years away", so tell them what they want to hear and worry about it later.

So he's played many people for many years and its made hm very rich, and up to a point the cause justifies the means, but those days are no longer here, Tesla won't fold if he came clean on a few things, his personal worth might take a massive dent if he said "Level 4 FSD is still 5 years away at least" so he's not going to say it. He's also still fooling a few people who either can't or don't want to see it, and the people who dislike this post will duly identify themselves.

 

[init6]

Well, yes
He can and has delivered ungodly change. But that doesn’t mean I have to trust his predictions.

I take your point, and George's, that he has taken Tesla to a good place, but I wouldn't put much store in any of his pronouncements about the underlying technology. Far better to listen to the people who are doing the work. There are still too many people quoting his Tweets (X's?) as if they are gospel.

 

[Pagemakers]

As an owner and investor I think Musk has his day at Tesla. He was great for the company. Not so sure now.

As HSBC said last week…

"reduce" rating and a $146 price target. In their note, HSBC analysts called Elon Musk both an asset and a risk to Tesla, noting he is a "charismatic CEO with a cult-like following" who "feeds into the innovator narrative."

 

[WannabeOwner]

He's a showman with a little knowledge

My recollection of his biography was that, as an engineer, he hired the best brains on the planet, worked with them, and acquired a significant amount of their knowledge. Do that over multiple disciplines (Rockets, Batteries, Motors, AI?!!) and he then has a much better in depth knowledge of the science that the CEOs of other mega corps, so I think your "little knowledge" is a stretch.

I don't know whether he, enthusiastically and optimistically, along with co-workers, thought that FSD was a problem that would be quickly cracked with plenty-of-money and resource ... or if he made-stuff-up as is often suggested on this forum.

When Tesla fell out with MobilEye I was astonished how quickly Tesla had a workable product (yeah, like USS-less cars, no new car shipped with usable-AP for, say, 12 months ... and plenty of folk were well pissed about it). My recollection is that Tesla was operating their Alpha software in shadow-mode, alongside MobileEye and maybe also the human driver, and logging when AP-Alpha did something different - and then targeting improving that. Maybe that made it easier, and maybe they had been doing that for a while / long time before the MobilEye break-up. They had quite a few cars on the road by then (75K-ish MS + MX), so that fleet-shadow-testing would have provided a decent amount of data.

But that first AP was impressive, nonetheless when compared to MobilEye (started in 1999 and took a decade to get an AP product onto a car, and another decade (2022) to get to the point of having a fully autonomous robotaxi).

we'd all have 30 mins a day of our life back not spending time on here

A Gardening forum is the loser - in my case.

 

[spdpsba]

There are still too many people quoting his Tweets (X's?) as if they are gospel.

I think there is a difference between how you interpret a CEOs tweets and BMWs mission statement about delivering a perfect machine. Elon is one of the guy who knows he is as powerful as a CEO only others can dream of. He creates all these Top gun maverick moments and everything is scripted perfectly to have all the ‘highs’ in every few sentences or tweets. Now if you think some of us on these forums are just leaning on to that and acting as fanboys then I am sorry you are wrong. I am sure you are one of the rational ones so no disrespect. But others think they know every factual bit of AI with just reading some statements and listening to his interview and then comment/criticise constantly about the same thing again and again and make this forum full of just Elon hate material.

For example, Tim Cook announced the new iPhone 15, however, let his tech team talk about the various features. However, even they did not say anything about the USB C charge port needing different cables if data needed transfer and it is not in any of their official announcements. It is only the tech reviewers who found out Apple cleverly (of course a way to make more money of selling you another cable) made it such a way they comply with some european regulations but also sell their cable for customers who is unaware of this. I would have liked to know about this before I bought it - I don’t think it is necessary for me to go thro’ all the review videos to know that this can’t be used to transfer data. Now, did Apple cheat? They didn’t disclose the truth, don’t know whether Tim even knows about it. The tech team knows but that doesn’t mean what they are saying is all rubbish as some poster mentioned.

The reason for mentioning this here is the moaning on this site is similar to what I mentioned above and it is unbearable and reinforced by few as if they have some vested interest.

But Elon is a modern CEO who controls the narrative and creates these high moments and the more he does the more the stock prices go up. He is the brand not Tesla if you have any doubts. Once Elon leaves see how Tesla’s market goes down hill all the way.

 

[Marktm250]

A basic question about "Tesla Vision" - does the "visualization" when on FSD closely represent the actual information used by FSD for make driving decisions (if this question even makes sense)? What I've noticed is that if so, it explains (to me) why certain situations seem critically dangerous if left to FSD - as examples, entering into high speed rural single traffic lane from a rural branch road - or changing lanes in front of a high speed auto that is definitely out of the "visualization" range. Here in Texas, relative speeds in lane changes can be 30-40 mph difference - crazy!

 

[Kenners]

Clearly Elon today is very different from the Elon of a few years ago.The cave thing seemed to be when things cracked, down hill ever since. The reality is being the richest person in the world is misery, his mind has buckled and he is unravelling. It is a slow motion car crash. Tesla vision is not a rational strategy. Maybe he is hoping it can prevent him hitting his eventual and inevitable final collapse! And we’ll be left wishing he’d gone down the Howard Hughes path and just become a recluse.

 

[Hurricane]

I think there is a difference between how you interpret a CEOs tweets and BMWs mission statement about delivering a perfect machine. Elon is one of the guy who knows he is as powerful as a CEO only others can dream of. He creates all these Top gun maverick moments and everything is scripted perfectly to have all the ‘highs’ in every few sentences or tweets. Now if you think some of us on these forums are just leaning on to that and acting as fanboys then I am sorry you are wrong. I am sure you are one of the rational ones so no disrespect. But others think they know every factual bit of AI with just reading some statements and listening to his interview and then comment/criticise constantly about the same thing again and again and make this forum full of just Elon hate material.

For example, Tim Cook announced the new iPhone 15, however, let his tech team talk about the various features. However, even they did not say anything about the USB C charge port needing different cables if data needed transfer and it is not in any of their official announcements. It is only the tech reviewers who found out Apple cleverly (of course a way to make more money of selling you another cable) made it such a way they comply with some european regulations but also sell their cable for customers who is unaware of this. I would have liked to know about this before I bought it - I don’t think it is necessary for me to go thro’ all the review videos to know that this can’t be used to transfer data. Now, did Apple cheat? They didn’t disclose the truth, don’t know whether Tim even knows about it. The tech team knows but that doesn’t mean what they are saying is all rubbish as some poster mentioned.

The reason for mentioning this here is the moaning on this site is similar to what I mentioned above and it is unbearable and reinforced by few as if they have some vested interest.

But Elon is a modern CEO who controls the narrative and creates these high moments and the more he does the more the stock prices go up. He is the brand not Tesla if you have any doubts. Once Elon leaves see how Tesla’s market goes down hill all the way.

I don’t think the average Tesla owner is in the slightest bit interested in any of that now that ownership has gone beyond early adopters. What you can’t deny is that the Musk has come out with an unbelievable amount of utter crap over the years, especially about autonomy. Just a couple of examples of what he has produced from his fundamental orifice:

Musk in March 2015:
"I don't think we have to worry about autonomous cars because it's a sort of a narrow form of AI. It's not something I think is very difficult. To do autonomous driving that is to a degree much safer than a person, is much easier than people think.... I almost view it like a solved problem."

Musk in February 2019:
“I think we will be feature complete, full self-driving, this year. Meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention. This year. I would say I am of certain of that, that is not a question mark.”

He’s been predicting “full autonomy next year” every year since 2014.

And where are the million robo taxis that were supposed to be on the road by the end of 2020?

These are just a couple of examples of his many, many outrageously disastrous predictions. And yet there are still people who hang on to his every word and treat him like a second Messiah. He can do no wrong, and the disciples come up with excuses every time he is yet again proved to have been talking crap. Past experience tells me his credibility is shot to pieces and his vision (excuse the pun) is extremely flawed.

 

[Dilly]

I think the sad fact is that with an almost 4 year old computer, cameras of average quality, some of which are in the wrong place and some which block or bare blinded for a variety of reasons, my car will never be any more self-driving that it is now.

The existing hardware is finite and there is a long way to go…

It’s a real shame. It’s a good car that could have been great, mislead by impulse

 

[Zilla91]

Elon is a modern CEO who controls the narrative and creates these high moments

Does that include antisemitism?