I'm looking at getting a used P85 to "hold me over" right now. Private party on ebay, they go for as low as $45k nicely equipped, usually with a couple of premium options like leather, pano, sound, or air suspension. $53k gets you a similar, lower-mileage P85 with a CPO warranty.
If something similarly equipped (but in the smaller and less prestigious 3 body) is significantly MORE than $50k in 18 months, I'm going to be hard-pressed to go with a Model 3, L5 AP or not.
I think many people feel the same way. What if you can get a bumper-to-bumper warranty CPO model S with everything but AP for the same price as a new 3?
I won't. I've thought about it, but there are a number of challenges:
1. The Model S is larger, and I
prefer a smaller car. I think they're easier to manage, drive, etc.
2. The Model 3's autopilot hardware and also active safety capabilities are going to be much more improved and that is a big difference. Many of the CPO S models are without autopilot at all right now, and that's a
huge detractor. I honestly have no interest in a Tesla without AP. AP1 is a complete must if I needed a car today, but I would struggle to go with anything less than AP2 at this point.
3. I expect the Model 3's range to be better assuming even 1 battery upgrade. That's my own expectation and it is a big attraction.
4. While the S and 3 might be same price with the former being CPO, the latter gets a tax credit of up to $7,500. If the credit is extended/expanded, this might be a factor for even more people.
5. At the end of the day, the 3 will be a brand new car versus the S. I would prefer new with their long warranties.
I'm also in a situation like many city dwellers where charging at my own residence is a challenging proposition. I sit on my HOA's board and have been actively working with them, but the challenge remains and the final outcome of what I want to pursue is up in the air. An installation to my parking spot is likely to run $5k and if I sell my place in the next few years, I am not certain to get that money back.
With a Model 3 and fully self driving (even if it isn't enabled right away), I could potentially have my car go and charge itself in the middle of the night. The Model S will require a commitment from me to stop by a high power DC charger twice a week for 30-60 minutes each time.