Trying to Convince Myself to Upgrade from 85D to 100D ...

[ForeverFree]

... but have failed so far.

Extra 65 miles of range actually would help. Drive LA (SFV) --> Mammoth (300 mi), LA <--> Palm Desert (280 mi one-day R/T). In winter, drive to Mammoth is affected by uphill (7000 ft, incl 4000 ft after final Supercharger) and cold. In summer, affected by uphill plus hitch-mounted bike rack (typical RM multiplier = 1.5).

AP2? Would be fun to participate in its gradual evolution. However, AP1 is mature and provides most of what I need.

My 85D is two years old and has 29K miles.

No matter how hard I push the numbers, they still show that, over the next two or three years, it would cost me about $400 - $500/month more to be driving the newer car (not in terms of monthly payment but overall long-term net cost).

Just can't quite justify that. And, I'm not wealthy; money does matter.

Then again, if I'm ever going to pull the trigger, it should be while US and CA credits/rebates ($7500 and $2500) are still available. Otherwise, it's drive my present car until five or six years and 75K - 90K miles.

Existing car has exactly the options I want/need. New would obviously be ordered that way, as well.

Thoughts?

 

[MurrayJimW]

Take this with a grain of salt as I just ordered a 100D, but there are those that are convinced that an upgrade to the MS is just around the corner to combat M3 cannibalizing sales. I obviously did not let this stop me, but in waiting for my order I can tell you this is a concern. If I had it to do over I'd probably wait until at least M3's are rolling off the line and see what Tesla decides to do with upgrading the S or reducing pricing to keep them selling. You should be fine on the tax credit for a while after M3 production starts assuming they are on time with it.

 

[Tam]

...Thoughts?

Tesla keeps on evolving and traditionally, as technology matures the cost would come down too.

You just have to decide how long do you want to wait.

 

[SMAlset]

Interest rates if you are financing the purchase are really low right now and it doesn't sound like they will be holding or going down in the future.

As far as range, check out the new map of SC coming in 2017 and see if it will help you on your routine trip locations. Maybe you won't need to worry about range if you have more options soon.

Also suspect with the higher battery pack models the cost of your insurance will go up. At least that was what I was reading on some threads earlier when we were ordering our car. Supposedly people were having issues with several companies who wouldn't insure cars over $100K. We have a 75D so didn't run into that personally but might be worth inquiring about.

 

[bob_p]

While not exactly the same, I've been driving a late 2012 S P85 and recently shifted to our new S 100D.

Tesla added many new features since 2012, so the feature difference between our S P85 and the S 100D would be greater than from an S 85D.

For our S P85, 90% charge would typically be around 225 (100% is around 252) - about a 5% loss over 4 years.

Our new S 100D, 90% is 307-309 miles (100% is around 344!). Of course, we'll likely see some battery degradation over time.

We did a 2500 mile road trip last summer and had to slow down to at or below posted speed limit several times to stretch our charge long enough to reach the next supercharger. With the S 100D, we shouldn't have that problem on future road trips.

As for new features that will be introduced in the Model S - Tesla will always make changes at least once or twice a year. Something I went through since getting our S P85 in early 2013, and while every time that happened I'd go through a period of disappointment, which quickly went away because even without the extra features the P85 is still a fantastic car...

The biggest changes likely to come in the next 12 months is a shift to the new 2170 batteries and support for faster V3 supercharging (possibly charging as fast as 5 to 10 minutes). Otherwise, other than getting EAP/FSD working, it's not clear what Tesla could add that would be huge disappointment to miss.

 

[sandpiper]

.... but there are those that are convinced that an upgrade to the MS is just around the corner to combat M3 cannibalizing sales. .....

That's me. I think that there is SOMETHING if the offing. I can't think of any other reason for Tesla to delay the final reveal of the Model 3. They've got some new hardware in the Model 3 that isn't ready to go into the SX just yet, and they're afraid to make it known.

For the record, I don't think we're talking major things. I personally expect a CCS charge port, in addition to the standard Tesla one. And I also expect that the M3 will address a bunch of continuously raised shortcomings in the MS interior - lack of a fold down center in the rear seat, lack of storage pockets, etc... And so the MS will need to adopt some of these things or risk looking a bit inferior.

 

[bob_p]

Tesla is using a fast-time-to-market process for getting the Model 3 into production, by fast-tracking the typical prototype phase so they can quickly go from finalizing the design to beginning production.

Tesla has also bought themselves some time by reserving the first group of orders for employees - and not for premium customers purchasing "Signature" models. It's very likely employees receiving their Model 3's will see some changes introduced after they've received their Model 3 and when the first external customer Model 3 is built.

This happened with the Model S Signature cars, as I recall, Tesla made some small changes after gaining experience with the Signature cars, before my VIN 3xxx S P85 was built.

Because the first production cars will go to employees, Tesla could introduce changes to the design in July (or even August) and still finalize the design before the first customer cars are built.

Using this "just in time" design process, Tesla really isn't delaying the reveal until July - they are giving themselves as much time as possible to refine the design, before locking in what they will produce for employees - and then (likely with some small changes) for customers a few months later.

Tesla's also buying themselves some additional time for refining the design by reserving the first customer production cars for current Tesla customers - who have been extremely loyal and likely to be more forgiving of any challenges they might get in the early Model 3's.

 

[ForeverFree]

Thank you, everyone, for these thoughtful and insightful comments.

I definitely wonder whether, despite Elon's comments about "stopping at 100 kWh for awhile," Gigafactory 21750 batteries will make a 120D possible, along with possible faster Supercharging. With 400 rated miles, such a car would represent a good-as-it-ever-needs-to-get range for me.

Also wondering about an interior (and, maybe even, interior features) refresh to further differentiate MS post M3 launch.

That said, if I could make the numbers work better (or, if Tesla offered reasonable lease deals which passed along the value of the $7500 tax credit to the lessor), I'd pull the trigger now on the 100D. In truth, it's all the car that any of us will ever need, and it would be fun to participate as AP2 is brought to life over the coming months/years.

Thanks, again!

 

[SabrToothSqrl]

January means new battery cells for the S/X as well... so... there's that.

And the S should have a "7 year" run? so 2019/2020 we get a 'new' one?

 

[sandpiper]

Thank you, everyone, for these thoughtful and insightful comments.

I definitely wonder whether, despite Elon's comments about "stopping at 100 kWh for awhile," Gigafactory 21750 batteries will make a 120D possible, along with possible faster Supercharging. With 400 rated miles, such a car would represent a good-as-it-ever-needs-to-get range for me.

Also wondering about an interior (and, maybe even, interior features) refresh to further differentiate MS post M3 launch.

That said, if I could make the numbers work better (or, if Tesla offered reasonable lease deals which passed along the value of the $7500 tax credit to the lessor), I'd pull the trigger now on the 100D. In truth, it's all the car that any of us will ever need, and it would be fun to participate as AP2 is brought to life over the coming months/years.

Thanks, again!

At one point Elon also mentioned that he couldn't see why anybody would want more than 85. There's a loose connection between Elon's comments and actual action. And he backtracks a fair bit. That's okay, as long as you're aware of it and take it all with appropriately sized chunks of crystallized NaCl.

 

[BrettS]

For the record, I don't think we're talking major things. I personally expect a CCS charge port, in addition to the standard Tesla one.

I'd be very surprised to see a second standard charge port of any type on a Tesla car at any point in the future. Just like apple with their proprietary lightning cables, tesla likes their proprietary charge port as well. I would imagine that there may be an official CCS to tesla adapter sometime soon, but I don't think we're going to see any standard ports on the cars.

 

[BrettS]

No matter how hard I push the numbers, they still show that, over the next two or three years, it would cost me about $400 - $500/month more to be driving the newer car (not in terms of monthly payment but overall long-term net cost).

Just can't quite justify that. And, I'm not wealthy; money does matter.

I'm getting in on this discussion a little late, but I think you've answered your own question here. If you can't justify the added expense for a few features then it's not worth paying.

I made a very similar decision recently... I decided to buy a Model S and I spent a lot of time going back and forth on whether I wanted to get a used AP1 car or a new AP2 car. And as much as I like having the latest and the best and I liked the potential for AP2 and FSD I just couldn't justify the extra $300-$400/month difference and I wound up getting a 2015 AP1 about a month ago. So far, at least, I haven't regretted that decision.

My thought is that I'll probably keep this car for as long as AP1 and AP2 are at a close parity and FSD is still a future feature, which I suspect will be at least another year or two. (Not that I expect FSD to be available in a year or two, but I would think that AP2 would start moving ahead of AP2 in that time frame and may be offering some features that would be worth upgrading for. On a side note, I'm also wondering if FSD will be introduced in stages. Such as the ability to engage it as you enter the highway and let the car drive itself (without needing to monitor traffic conditions as you do for autopilot) until you're ready to exit the highway. I can imagine that something like that may be ready and available before full point to point self driving is available)

But in any case, once AP2 starts moving well ahead of AP1 and/or FSD starts offering some interesting features I figure I'll sell this car and buy a 2 year old AP2 car. At that point there should be some two year old AP2 cars that have already taken their initial depreciation hit and (theoretically) I can move up to the AP2 features without that $400/month price hit.

 

[sandpiper]

I'd be very surprised to see a second standard charge port of any type on a Tesla car at any point in the future. Just like apple with their proprietary lightning cables, tesla likes their proprietary charge port as well. I would imagine that there may be an official CCS to tesla adapter sometime soon, but I don't think we're going to see any standard ports on the cars.

Noting that I've been spectacularly wrong before, I've never been shy about making predictions. I predict that the Model 3 has two charge ports - a regular Tesla port and a CCS port under the same door, but closer to the rear.

 

[jbcarioca]

Noting that I've been spectacularly wrong before, I've never been shy about making predictions. I predict that the Model 3 has two charge ports - a regular Tesla port and a CCS port under the same door, but closer to the rear.

I want to have that happen but 'hope' is not 'expectation'. I do expect that the Model 3 I have reserved for Brazil, whenever it comes, will have CCS in the same was that European Tesla will end out that way. They are already 'half pregnant' in Europe anyway,

January means new battery cells for the S/X as well... so... there's that.

And the S should have a "7 year" run? so 2019/2020 we get a 'new' one?

No idea if it happens that soon but I'd probably wait for that if I expected it. OTOH the 100D remains the car I'm thinking of to replace my P85D. I do want the range. I know I don't really need it. I want it. it costs so much. But I want it...and so it goes.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

First world problems...

 

[timvracer]

recently got the 100d, and the fact I can drive 80mph the whole way to LA from San Jose with one stop (Bakersfield) makes me really glad. Coming home requires 2 stops (a little refresher at Harris), just enough time to get a yogurt parfait, eat it, and then leave.

 

[iqless]

My thoughts are that there's not enough of a difference between 85D and 100D in anything other than range. Very few significant features have been added to the Model S, and the options have barely changed especially if you design it so that they're similar. The 0-60 acceleration is also the same between the 85D and 100D.

Based on the options and mileage you could probably sell your 85D for 60-65K (I bought mine on CPO for less than that but it has 36k miles) and a well optioned 100D would be around $105,000 after incentives.

That's a difference of at least $40 thousand for a new front fascia, improved range and AP2 over AP1. I'd also like to say that even though eventually AP2 is gonna be better than AP1, right now AP1 is still slightly better than (maybe equal to) AP2. If you're considering the AP difference it at least makes sense to wait until AP2 gets significantly better than AP1 so you always have the best system...

 

[SabrToothSqrl]

I like the 100 as it's a nice round number that looks sweet on the trunk lid. Practicality be dammed. I want the badge

 

[No2DinosaurFuel]

I would wait for a more significant upgrade before jumping in.

Like others have said there is quite a bit of changes since your 85D. But you just ask yourself which changes are required and which is nice to have.

Sounds like you only care about the range increase. 65 additional miles is nice but you have to ask yourself if the extra stop you must do now in your 85d is worth more than extra $400-$500 per month for the next 3 years. And who knows what tesla will do or other companies will have by 2020. Maybe they will have more range so you can do the trip comfortably even in dead of winter. Then you will be asking the same question again then.

If range is all you are concerned about and the other stuff like AP2, new fascia, etc are gravy on the top, I would wait it out. We are at the cusp of really fast charging. Think supercharging station but now instead of 45 minutes it is 15 minutes.

That is what I am really waiting for.

 

[bmah]

Every time I've thought about this question I've come to the conclusion that I actually prefer my two-year-old S85D to what's rolling off the assembly line now. Weird huh?

o The S85D has a slightly larger frunk than the post-refresh cars (though not as cavernous as on the S85).

o Love that open space (with yacht floor) between the front seats...I don't need no stinkin' console.

o Call me old fashioned but I still like the nosecone.

o AP1 may be (relatively) old news, but it's also more mature, with no surprises.

Bruce.