What other tech stock to consider?

[Nicu.Mihalache]

First, let me observe that "cool tech" and multi-bagger stock is almost a contradiction, with some very notable exceptions, of course. Cool rhymes better with over-valued or over-hyped.

Anyone getting into Apple atm? Im doing a sell on the news trade, hoping for momentum up to 10 sept, then sell before the news..

I think Apple will see new all time highs during the next three years. And I have put my money (from TSLA calls) where my mouth is. I own stock and lots of calls, most of them Jan 15. The reasoning is the following. They are already a low P/E stock. They are doing furious buy-backs which will automatically (one may say artificially, but after reflection, not so) increase their EPS by 10-15% long term. But the main reason is the new cheap iPhone (and maybe some iPad variant, like keeping the current mini at lower prices). Decreasing the cost by 30-50% for the handset will enable them to tap into vast markets they have not touched before (and new carriers also - think BRIC, about 2 billion people that aspire to the living standard of the occidental countries). In 2-3 years, they could double their EPS and cash position (if not spent on additional buybacks or more dividends). When the average P/E of the S&P 500 is at 19, a company that still grows and swims in cash will not stay at 6 or 7.
SP 500 PE Ratio

 

[ongba]

First, let me observe that "cool tech" and multi-bagger stock is almost a contradiction, with some very notable exceptions, of course. Cool rhymes better with over-valued or over-hyped.



I think Apple will see new all time highs during the next three years. And I have put my money (from TSLA calls) where my mouth is. I own stock and lots of calls, most of them Jan 15. The reasoning is the following. They are already a low P/E stock. They are doing furious buy-backs which will automatically (one may say artificially, but after reflection, not so) increase their EPS by 10-15% long term. But the main reason is the new cheap iPhone (and maybe some iPad variant, like keeping the current mini at lower prices). Decreasing the cost by 30-50% for the handset will enable them to tap into vast markets they have not touched before (and new carriers also - think BRIC, about 2 billion people that aspire to the living standard of the occidental countries). In 2-3 years, they could double their EPS and cash position (if not spent on additional buybacks or more dividends). When the average P/E of the S&P 500 is at 19, a company that still grows and swims in cash will not stay at 6 or 7.
SP 500 PE Ratio

Nicu,

What strikes are your jan 15 calls and when do you purchase them?

thanks!

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

Nicu,

What strikes are your jan 15 calls and when do you purchase them?

thanks!

My AAPL investment has been basically wiped off from Sep 12 to Feb 13, along with a huge chunk of my portfolio. I have only some Jan 14 calls left from that (and got into some Apr 14 calls that will "replace" those Jan 14 calls - let me explain that below). I have bought Jan 15 calls this spring with some of the cash from the short squeeze. I have also lowered their strike on dips (exchanged higher strikes to lower strikes by buying a bull call spread). I now have 40 Jan 15 calls with strikes in the $580 to $620 range. I also have 10 Jan 15 calls at $700 that will act as an upper leg for the $580 calls. That is, I will sell those $580 calls when their price is at least the strike difference of $120 plus the entry price ($4.95) into those $700 C. At that point I get 100% of the strike difference in cash and the remaining upside exposure with the price of holding extra calls. The same thing is at play for the Jan 14 and Apr 14 calls ($480 and $535 strikes respectively). Those options are already up well in excess of $100k but I feel I have time to let them mature quite a bit.

 

[Ocelot]

First, let me observe that "cool tech" and multi-bagger stock is almost a contradiction, with some very notable exceptions, of course. Cool rhymes better with over-valued or over-hyped.



I think Apple will see new all time highs during the next three years. And I have put my money (from TSLA calls) where my mouth is. I own stock and lots of calls, most of them Jan 15. The reasoning is the following. They are already a low P/E stock. They are doing furious buy-backs which will automatically (one may say artificially, but after reflection, not so) increase their EPS by 10-15% long term. But the main reason is the new cheap iPhone (and maybe some iPad variant, like keeping the current mini at lower prices). Decreasing the cost by 30-50% for the handset will enable them to tap into vast markets they have not touched before (and new carriers also - think BRIC, about 2 billion people that aspire to the living standard of the occidental countries). In 2-3 years, they could double their EPS and cash position (if not spent on additional buybacks or more dividends). When the average P/E of the S&P 500 is at 19, a company that still grows and swims in cash will not stay at 6 or 7.
SP 500 PE Ratio

I disagree, with half of this. I agree with what you said about the stock buy back. However, I do not see apple blossoming. While they might have some market penetration, most markets are already penetrated and apple will just steal a fraction of what has been penetrated. I feel the "watch" will fail, and overall feel android is marching faster ahead than apple (my wife's entire family are 'apple' people, I am just whatever is the best kinda guy). When I think of what more I want my phone to do, it is not that much. Once it acts like a wallet I will embrace that, but once again feel google has the edge and will continue to take larger bites of the market away from apple.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

I disagree, with half of this. I agree with what you said about the stock buy back. However, I do not see apple blossoming. While they might have some market penetration, most markets are already penetrated and apple will just steal a fraction of what has been penetrated. I feel the "watch" will fail, and overall feel android is marching faster ahead than apple (my wife's entire family are 'apple' people, I am just whatever is the best kinda guy). When I think of what more I want my phone to do, it is not that much. Once it acts like a wallet I will embrace that, but once again feel google has the edge and will continue to take larger bites of the market away from apple.

First, let me tell that I am glad most people disagree with me on this one. Otherwise I couldn't have bought all those calls for (relatively) cheap. I have no intention to pollute this thread with the tired ol' Apple, so I will try to limit my intervention to this message (with the exception of direct questions).

I am not even thinking some magical features or add campaigns will capture market share back. It's just the price and availability. Apple has more or less stopped adding new carriers about 12 to 18 months ago (in part, this is the reason why my estimates and options play turned out so wrong). Last time I saw estimates, they had around 250 carriers or so. Most of their competitors have in excess of 600. One of the reasons is that when they sign up a new carrier, they demand a minimum purchase each year, with double digits y/y growth for 4-5 years out. At $300-$400 subsidy / phone, many carriers bailed out because in some places you simply cannot make it back from monthly payments. Of course, if that would be too hard for Apple to bear, they would simply shave off $100 or $150 from each handset, they would still be above 50% GM on them. But Apple does not work like that. They keep prices +/- constant for many years in the same category and add new categories when needed.

 

[al_chumley]

Has anyone invested in DDD? I think the technology is really cool. I keep peeking at their stock but I'm not too sure about the long term.

I invested back in 2011 - sold earlier this year for a nice profit. I sold because I thought they were going too crazy buying up other 3D printing companies, and would be hurt on the low end by MakerBot. Currently, I don't think the low end matters too much, but I do still worry about them integrating all their buys. Solid company overall in an interesting space that just starting to get more mainstream attention.

I would LOVE to invest in Pluralsight (they recently did a series A funding round). As a web developer, their training has been instrumental in advancing my career.

 

[DaveT]

If Xiaomi (smartphone maker from China) was public right now, I'd invest in them.
Xiaomi's Bin Lin Talks About the Chinese Start-Up's Flagship Phone - Liz Gannes - Mobile - AllThingsD
Xiaomi's Bin Lin Says Company Is Betting on Services, Not Smartphones - John Paczkowski - Dive Into Mobile - AllThingsD

Xiaomi has a ton of fanatical fans in China... they're pre-orders sell out in minutes. And people are calling their ceo the Steve Jobs of China.
And today they announced they hired Hugo Barra, former Google VP of Android project management.
They have potential to be a $100+ billion company.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Environmental website SmartPlanet has picked up on Lawrenceville Plasma Physics excellent showing at Google Solve for X Fusion conference this past June. Ignore the writer's inaccurate title. LPP is not claiming any sort of 'triumph'. Just noting that their results to date, published in the leading international plasma physics journal, far exceed what several bigger companies working on new (hot) fusion approaches have managed. Any private company that manages to demonstrate a fusion approach able to cheaply produce more energy than consumed, is going to have huge future profits licensing its technology to large power generation equipment companies like GE and Siemens.
New Jersey firm claims nuclear fusion triumph | SmartPlanet

 

[Citizen-T]

I invested back in 2011 - sold earlier this year for a nice profit. I sold because I thought they were going too crazy buying up other 3D printing companies, and would be hurt on the low end by MakerBot. Currently, I don't think the low end matters too much, but I do still worry about them integrating all their buys. Solid company overall in an interesting space that just starting to get more mainstream attention.

I would LOVE to invest in Pluralsight (they recently did a series A funding round). As a web developer, their training has been instrumental in advancing my career.

I own some DDD. Actually, I own a number of 3D printing stocks. Not because I think that any one is particular special, but because I think this technology is about to come of age (in the next 3 years) and the whole space will see dramatic growth. It isn't clear to me who is going to benefit most from this yet, so I'm just going with the "a rising tide lifts all ships" theory.

It is the same strategy that I took with solar last year when I felt that it was coming of age. I think solar will explode over the next 3 years (positive feedback loop with EVs). I think the solar trend is a few years ahead of the 3D printing trend though.

I also own CREE. I've been watching it for a long time, but thought that the prices of their bulbs needed to come down some more before we got past the early adopters. Their 40 watt bulbs are now in the $15ish range, and the light quality is quite good. I think we are just on the cusp of widespread adoption of this technology as well. Every time I walk into home depot I see a handful of people standing in front of the display reading about the technology. Looks like late-early adopter stage to me.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

General Fusion | Rethink Fusion
General Fusion attempts to prove by 2015 net gain from controlled fusion. The tech looks doable, the science behind seems in the pocket (I'm not a nuclear physicist, so I have to rely on other's opinions here). If it works, it produces its own fuel from Lithium, no dangerous nuclear waste, no danger of explosions or weapons proliferation. Bezos (Amazon's CEO) personally invested in this company some time ago.

 

[ongba]

I own some DDD. Actually, I own a number of 3D printing stocks. Not because I think that any one is particular special, but because I think this technology is about to come of age (in the next 3 years) and the whole space will see dramatic growth. It isn't clear to me who is going to benefit most from this yet, so I'm just going with the "a rising tide lifts all ships" theory.

It is the same strategy that I took with solar last year when I felt that it was coming of age. I think solar will explode over the next 3 years (positive feedback loop with EVs). I think the solar trend is a few years ahead of the 3D printing trend though.

I also own CREE. I've been watching it for a long time, but thought that the prices of their bulbs needed to come down some more before we got past the early adopters. Their 40 watt bulbs are now in the $15ish range, and the light quality is quite good. I think we are just on the cusp of widespread adoption of this technology as well. Every time I walk into home depot I see a handful of people standing in front of the display reading about the technology. Looks like late-early adopter stage to me.

Citzen T,


What other 3d printer stocks do you own? In addition to DDD, I am currently looking at SSYS and XONE. Also looking forward to reading 2 books on the potential 3d printer revolution (when I can get some more spare time) entitled "Fabricated" and "Makers".

 

[electrictorque]

I have a small position in ONVO, 3d printing human tissue for drug testing. long term target is to actually 3d print human organs, it is a long shot.

 

[Bobfitz1]

General Fusion | Rethink Fusion
General Fusion attempts to prove by 2015 net gain from controlled fusion. The tech looks doable, the science behind seems in the pocket (I'm not a nuclear physicist, so I have to rely on other's opinions here). If it works, it produces its own fuel from Lithium, no dangerous nuclear waste, no danger of explosions or weapons proliferation. Bezos (Amazon's CEO) personally invested in this company some time ago.

Nicu, General Fusion also presented at Google's Fusion conference in June.
God as they say, is in the details. General Fusion is aiming for DT not pB11 fusion, so they will still be using a steam cycle and they can't be far cheaper than existing energy sources. Since DT fusion produces lots of fast neutrons, the neutron flux over time makes the device radioactive. That's why tokomak designs like ITER are huge and hugely expensive. GF haven't finished building their experimental machine, so they are still at the starting gate, and have no results to compare to competitors. LPP achieved plasma temperatures of 1.8 billion degrees C back in 2012.
Presentation video on Google Solve for X lays out the advantages of aneutronic (hydrogen Boron) fusion and how far LPP has come.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

Nicu, General Fusion also presented at Google's Fusion conference in June.
God as they say, is in the details. General Fusion is aiming for DT not pB11 fusion, so they will still be using a steam cycle and they can't be far cheaper than existing energy sources. Since DT fusion produces lots of fast neutrons, the neutron flux over time makes the device radioactive. That's why tokomak designs like ITER are huge and hugely expensive. GF haven't finished building their experimental machine, so they are still at the starting gate, and have no results to compare to competitors. LPP achieved plasma temperatures of 1.8 billion degrees C back in 2012.
Presentation video on Google Solve for X lays out the advantages of aneutronic (hydrogen Boron) fusion and how far LPP has come.

I did not post that as some sort of competition / antithesis to LPP.

The cost problem with ITER (and other classical approaches) is not from radioactive materials, but from new materials that have to be found that withstand the exceptional conditions (temperature, pressure). The main costs in NG, coal and nuclear electric plants do not come from the steam turbines, but from the fuel costs and security issues with nuclear fission.

EDIT (new info?): LPP needs a 3000 x improvement in plasma density? If so, this sound more like a science fiction project than a possible investment.

As a comparison, last time I put a few hours reading about GF, the last hurdle except the construction itself was to double the speed of the pistons, and we are talking about very down to earth speeds (something like from 55mph to 100mph or so - with constraints, of course).

 

[ggr]

I've been invested in SSH (Sunshine Heart) for many years now. Almost despaired. But the last few weeks have seen them finally getting the clinical trials going strong, and with very good results.

 

[TSLAopt]

Interesting, will have to look in more to this. But check the volatility! Here is a one year chart vs. USD:

But I guess long term the investment thesis would be to buy and hold until Bitcoins becomes the currency we use for everything? To never "exit" back o USD or any other currency for that matter? Takes some time to fathom the concept but it's a good concept!

Bitcoin creeping back up...at 135+ now.
I've been telling friends and family I've had two great ideas in my life so far and both have come in the past few years..buy TSLA stock and buy some Bitcoin to stash away for the long term.

it is not a stock but can easily be converted to USD or any currency really. It is akin to Gold, except in digital format and just starting to get widely adopted globally. Just follow it on the main exchange http://www.mtgox.com
that is where you can sign up for an account to to buy some as well. you can keep it in the cloud but for precautionary reasons I store it on a USB drive that I keep in a Mylar bag and in a ziplock bag in my safe.

 

[mershaw2001]

My "other tesla" story is NAVB, a company that is 3 dollars and has recently gotten FDA approval for a compound that can image draining lymph nodes that are downstream of cancer. You inject the compound into the tumor, and it tells you where it's spread to. It destroyed the current gold standard head to head. It got FDA approval 6 months ago and I became aware of the company then because their short level jumped to a ridiculous level. At the time of the FDA approval, about 6 million additional shares were shorted and the stock, at 4 dollars, went to 3 instead of 5. Then, each time good news came out, another 3 million were shorted to the point where people became despondent. However, the shorts were gambling on the fact that they would need to do a secondary offering and instead, GE provided them with 10 million in credit. The company is projected to be worth about 7 dollars, and there's still 20 million short (19% of the float). I am quite excited about their other tracking compounds for alzheimers and parkinson's but I'll leave those for you to read (or contact me for more info) so I don't write a novel here.

 

[Johan]

My "other tesla" story is NAVB, a company that is 3 dollars and has recently gotten FDA approval for a compound that can image draining lymph nodes that are downstream of cancer. You inject the compound into the tumor, and it tells you where it's spread to. It destroyed the current gold standard head to head. It got FDA approval 6 months ago and I became aware of the company then because their short level jumped to a ridiculous level. At the time of the FDA approval, about 6 million additional shares were shorted and the stock, at 4 dollars, went to 3 instead of 5. Then, each time good news came out, another 3 million were shorted to the point where people became despondent. However, the shorts were gambling on the fact that they would need to do a secondary offering and instead, GE provided them with 10 million in credit. The company is projected to be worth about 7 dollars, and there's still 20 million short (19% of the float). I am quite excited about their other tracking compounds for alzheimers and parkinson's but I'll leave those for you to read (or contact me for more info) so I don't write a novel here.

I can only give a medical perspective here: sentinel node (the technique you're describing above) is standard today for breast cancer and some skin cancers. Soon it will be used for many more types of cancer. If NAVB have the best product I'm buying! Let me look in to the scientfic data/studies and report back soon.

 

[mershaw2001]

Johan, I would love to hear your perspective on it. I'm in immunology but not cancer research, and the technology has distinct advantages over the current gold standards, such as the ability to distinguish using intensity whether or not more macrophages (the technology is an anti-cd206 antibody) are in the lymph node, indicating whether there is cancer there because the mac's clump around the tumor cell.
Plenty of other reasons, if you're interested google "old timer's board NAVB" and there's a good resource depository kept by ddbuyer on investor village.

 

[Bobfitz1]

I did not post that as some sort of competition / antithesis to LPP.
The cost problem with ITER (and other classical approaches) is not from radioactive materials, but from new materials that have to be found that withstand the exceptional conditions (temperature, pressure). The main costs in NG, coal and nuclear electric plants do not come from the steam turbines, but from the fuel costs and security issues with nuclear fission.

New technologies often seem like science fiction a few years before they are perfected and become the new normal. Finding a tech investment that might someday return many times the original investment is all about discerning not only if the science involved is likely to work, but whether the projected costs will make it commercially compelling. Scientific and technological extrapolations over several orders of magnitude are routine—IF you have sound physics theories that show how you can scale things up. LPP does and they indicate they can get thousands of times higher density with their current Dense Plasma Focus device. The several refinements needed each boost plasma density by 10 or 20 times. When combined they boost plasma density to the levels needed for pB11 fusion.

The cost problem with ITER, and with any approach using Deuterium - Tritium, is the neutron flux produced. In a tokomak that flux is 100 times that of a fission plant. Robert L. Hirsch, who directed the country’s fusion energy program in the 1970s through the Atomic Energy Commission has disavowed Tokomaks using DT as impractical for several reasons, including the radioactivity induced by DT neutron flux. "No matter what materials are chosen, there will still be neutron-induced materials damage and large amounts of induced radioactivity. There will thus be remote operations required and large amounts of radioactive waste that will have to be handled and sent off site for cooling and maybe burial."

Since fuel costs for fusion, especially pB11, are insignificant, the capital costs of all the equipment needed for the device and for extracting electrical energy from the fusion energy produced determine final cost per MW capacity. So for fusion approaches, eliminating the expense of all the heat cycle gear (steam turbine, generator, condensor, pipes, etc) does lower the total cost per MW substantially. We should encourage the government to fund General Fusion, LPP, Tri Alpha, etc. rather than put all tax payer funding into ITER. When GF has an experimental device operating and has published its results in peer reviewed journals, it will then be possible to compare their results objectively with competing approaches.