What Should Elon Include in His Top Secret Master Plan II

[ccutrer]

16kW inverters - taking 48VDC from the bank into 240VAC. 1150Ah @ 48V. Direct from the PV panels I'd get diddlysquat.

Our backup generator - is going on its 7th year... it's got 292 hours on its clock - less than two weeks' total usage. And MOST of that time is on regular "turnover" maintentance, plus some times when I...or lightning...fried some of the inverters and I absolutely had to run directly on the 30kW diesel genset.

If it hadn't been the case that our late and utterly unlamented local utility company had raised rates to $4.15/kWh (no typo there, folks!) then I wouldn't have been impelled as well as compelled to emplace this system - those batteries are EXPENSIVE!. But I never stopped to thank them for that dunderheaded move of theirs.

Pretty decent inverters. And yeah, with a backup genny that large it wouldn't take long to charge everything back up and be good to go for another several days. Now if only you could get your Model S to act as part of your battery bank....! Or even be able to charge it directly with DC. Unless you've got more magic you're hiding up your sleeve and not telling me about...

 

[SageBrush]

16kW inverters - taking 48VDC from the bank into 240VAC. 1150Ah @ 48V.

Presuming ~ 50% usable -- about 25 kWh battery capacity ?

If correct then I am a silly city moron too -- I thought you would say at least 5x that amount, though I realize that heating is from wood.

Actually, the more I think about this, the less things make sense to me. In the summer I can well imagine your 5 kW array generating ~ 20 - 40 kWh of energy. If your battery array can supply two days, that implies some 40 - 80 kWh of usable storage. My home in Colorado consumes about 4 kWh a day, but this is for two people who turn off lights and are spoiled by modest deer that do not demand coiffures and showers from the guests. I have always figured that I would need 7x my daily consumption of battery storage to keep a backup genset mostly dormant, and this is in a place that gets a whole lot more winter sun that your latitude.

Sorry for the dumb questions but I am truly very interested and I think that your off-grid setup is wonderful.

-- Eric

 

[neroden]

'Induced Demand' sounds like a pretty good rule of thumb, along the same lines as the critique of conservation by the Austrian school of Economics.

I'd be leery though of over-generalization. Life has a way of throwing in non-linear dynamics that wreck havoc with simplistic models.

Yeah, I'm just saying that "solving congestion" is an unreasonable and poorly-thought out goal because of induced demand.

Best to focus on more reasonable goals like "allow people to get work done while travelling" or "allow people to get to their destination faster" or "stop emitting pollution while travelling". The roads (and railways, and sidewalks) will still be jam-packed in popular places, but maybe they'll be jam-packed with happier, healthier, more productive people.

 

[neroden]

Found it: About the Sustainability of Denali Highway Cabins & Paxson Alpine Tours

Anyhow, this does not go against my point that you can't simply convert the average home in the northern half of the continental united states to solar, electric heat, and electric water.....

[because AudobonB is]

burning non-electrical energy sources for the greatest energy consumers (climate control).

Yeah, heating's the hard part, isn't it? I've been wondering how much would be needed in batteries and solar to do all-electric heating in the very cold latitudes. With superinsulation and high-efficiency heat pumps, it's probably much less than most people *think*, but it looks like it will still require too many batteries for almost everyone to consider. It would be good to quantify it better.

AudubonB provides good proof that everything short of space heating can be handled with batteries and solar -- he's only got about 9 Powerwalls worth of batteries, and I could fit that in my tiny house if I had to! (I know he's still heating his domestic water with combustion, but that could probably be converted to electrical without adding much load, based on what I know. Space heating seems like the big one.)

 

[MikeC]

The first Secret Master Plan has basically been my TSLA investing thesis since 2011. The fact that it has played out as predicted makes it easy to maintain conviction in the face of all the FUD.

So I'm really looking forward to SMP2. I'm guessing it won't be anything ground-breaking, but will be a cohesive summation of what Elon's been talking about for the last couple years:

1) Sustainable generation - manufacturing and installing aesthetic high-efficiency panels for residential, commercial, utility

2) Energy storage - optimize cost and performance of cells; software-optimized integrated with solar and EV

3) Sustainable transport - Future models and different vehicle types; autonomy/ride-sharing

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

[because AudobonB is]


Yeah, heating's the hard part, isn't it? I've been wondering how much would be needed in batteries and solar to do all-electric heating in the very cold latitudes. With superinsulation and high-efficiency heat pumps, it's probably much less than most people *think*, but it looks like it will still require too many batteries for almost everyone to consider. It would be good to quantify it better.

AudubonB provides good proof that everything short of space heating can be handled with batteries and solar -- he's only got about 9 Powerwalls worth of batteries, and I could fit that in my tiny house if I had to! (I know he's still heating his domestic water with combustion, but that could probably be converted to electrical without adding much load, based on what I know. Space heating seems like the big one.)

If you google his place, there are quite a few trees nearby that he can combust. I think he can still be green when deep in a forest using materials at hand.

 

[jnuyens]

At least it needs to include something about his VTOL vision, no?

 

[EVCollies]

Personal solar power systems are still super expensive. With the decline of net metering in many states, Tesla and SolarCity need to make both panels and storage much cheaper otherwise people can't afford it. The storage part looks to be on track but I don't know the details on the panels.

I installed 10KwH panel system on my house 7 months ago for about $25K, local independent installer, the tax rebates reduced this cost. I'm hoping, even with three EV's in the garage, to break even on my electrical bill. That would pay for the panels after the tax rebates in about 5 years.

To break from the grid, I would need more PV panels (not a problem) and a lot of storage (problem). My worst winter months generated 22% of my best summer months, that is a lot of storage. This is taking range anxiety (home anxiety) to a new level.

 

[Ulmo]

Elon Musk on Twitter:
Elon Musk Verified account ‏@elonmusk
Bit of a distraction yesterday. Working on plan today.

• 

2:18AM, 18 Jul 2016, 497 retweets, 3,326 likes

 

[electracity]

I installed 10KwH panel system on my house 7 months ago for about $25K, local independent installer, the tax rebates reduced this cost. I'm hoping, even with three EV's in the garage, to break even on my electrical bill. That would pay for the panels after the tax rebates in about 5 years.

To break from the grid, I would need more PV panels (not a problem) and a lot of storage (problem). My worst winter months generated 22% of my best summer months, that is a lot of storage. This is taking range anxiety (home anxiety) to a new level.

Solar users aren't going to be leaving the grid post net metering, at least in the U.S. Paying a $30 monthly grid connection fee is a bargain. You can buy all the electricity you want when you need it, and sell back excess.

The reason to live off grid is to build on inexpensive land that is priced low because of lack of grid access.

 

[SageBrush]

Solar users aren't going to be leaving the grid post net metering, at least in the U.S. Paying a $30 monthly grid connection fee is a bargain. You can buy all the electricity you want when you need it, and sell back excess.

The reason to live off grid is to build on inexpensive land that is priced low because of lack of grid access.

I thought exactly this way too, until I called up my rural co-op to ask how much it costs to hook up a new house to grid. $6000 for access, and then all the cabling, electrician, boxes, and trough extra. THEN $35 a month access charge.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I thought exactly this way too, until I called up my rural co-op to ask how much it costs to hook up a new house to grid. $6000 for access, and then all the cabling, electrician, boxes, and trough extra. THEN $35 a month access charge.

If you live in one of these wacky western states you can also pay an extra $39 random monthly fee for the privilege of getting paid wholesale midnight rates for your peak excess.

The idea that this nonsense will last much longer is absurd.

 

[SageBrush]

The idea that this nonsense will last much longer is absurd.

I agree. A Tesla 30 kWh battery bank is about break-even with my local grid offer today; in two years it is going to be a no-brainer.

 

[Drivin]

Bit of a distraction yesterday. Working on plan today.

Funny

Originally he hoped to publish last week

Prople expected that he would miss that!

Did he not know there was a launch and did he not build that into his schedule? Lol.

 

[Drivin]

CEO: I am doing my job by developing a plan for the future

Media: Ohhh. Ahhhh. Ohhhh. Ahhhh. Yippee. Ohhhhhhhhh.

Pathetic that this is the state of the media and company marketing. They deserve each other.

 

[SΞXY P100D]

With all the frequent tragedies lately, tweets from Elon and new development from his companies are some of the few things that should really excite everyone nowadays.

The world is going through major changes right before our eyes - both good and bad. I'll welcome the good, thanks!

 

[Drivin]

With all the frequent tragedies lately, tweets from Elon and new development from his companies are some of the few things that should really excite everyone nowadays.

The world is going through major changes right before our eyes - both good and bad. I'll welcome the good, thanks!

Not everyone is excited by materialistic things, particularly 100k+ cars ("oh no, a tragedy, let's go to the mall or a Tesla store to be happy!)
Some people find more meaningful things to be excited about, particularly during "frequent tragedies"

 

[Drivin]

To answer the OP:

I think he should include a table of contents.

Sounds like it is going to be huuuuge.

 

[EinSV]

Since the "Secret Master Plan 2" may be a Master Product Plan, for the automotive side of the business it would be great to have some hints on a rough timeline for the Model Y (Model 3 SUVCUV version), the next generation, less expensive model after the Model 3 and the new Roadster. All of these have already been discussed by Elon and I expect that at least the design of the Model Y is pretty far along.

Model Y will help Tesla jump from 500K vehicles per year to 1M, and building a CUV/SUV on the Model 3 platform should be reasonably straightforward.

The next generation product beyond the Model 3 will truly be a game changer for the industry, and given the rapid reduction in Tesla's battery costs I expect it won't be too far in the future. Since BEV owners are roughly 10 times as likely to buy a solar system, the roadmap for the future BEV business also has major implications for Tesla Energy.

 

[dakh]

Commend on thread title. Elon should do whatever he thinks he needs to do. We can guess what the'll publish, or we can make up our own.

I expect this to be strongly related to SCTY merger and don't expect to see anything groundbreaking, like more details on the "city transit solution that is too early to talk to public about". If that happens that'd be a pleasant surprise to me. The one thing I'm a little bit hopeful for is to see where automated driving fits in the long term picture. On one hand it's probably difficult to have a longer term roadmap without it being on that map, on the other hand might be too early to release what the plans are.