$12K for FSD is insane

[bjrosen]

I paid $6K for FSD, I wouldn't do it again knowing what I know now. The idea of paying $12K for something that doesn't work and might never work is crazy. I bet their uptake on FSD is going to drop to near zero after this price increase. Does anyone feel that FSD is worth $12K, now or if even if they achieve Level 4 (note that Elon said Level 4 on is annual by the end of next year it will work tweet, in the past he always said Level 5 so he's losing confidence).

 

[nvx1977]

I paid $6K for FSD, I wouldn't do it again knowing what I know now. The idea of paying $12K for something that doesn't work and might never work is crazy. I bet their uptake on FSD is going to drop to near zero after this price increase. Does anyone feel that FSD is worth $12K, now or if even if they achieve Level 4 (note that Elon said Level 4 on is annual by the end of next year it will work tweet, in the past he always said Level 5 so he's losing confidence).

Musk's past predictions and leverage of FOMO do not inspire confidence. I consider myself bullish with FSD in that I believe that Musk will get to where he wants to be eventually, likely years away still. But it's hard for me to think anyone except people who can afford to throw money away would entertain 12k. Well, I thought that about 10k too, and there were still takers.

So it feels to me like Musk actually wants to stop/slow a growing number of FSD customers in the fleet. The other alternative is to pull FSD from the purchase step. But that seems like a huge loss of face given all the hype of a half-decade. (I do vaguely remember FSD being pulled for a very short time in the past).

With a smaller FSD fleet, the risk of pushing FSD beta to all FSD purchasers is minimized.

So in summary, I think Musk is using the FOMO argument as a cover for the true intent of slowing FSD adoption for the short term. When FSD is actually good, either the current price is justified, or they will adjust the price accordingly.

Another way to look at it is from the safety angle. Musk frequently tauts AP saving lives, and that it's morally irresponsible not to have AP on the roads if these systems are already safer than a human. If FSD according to their internal data is safer than a human, morally, Musk should be getting FSD into as many customers' hands as possible. Raising the price would be counter to this 'mission.' So I would conclude that at the time of the first wide release, FSD will not be safe enough to make the moral argument, and so the price increase serves mainly as a deterrent.

Or I could be completely wrong

 

[Baluchi]

So it feels to me like Musk actually wants to stop/slow a growing number of FSD customers in the fleet.

This was my first thought exactly. Just like the price increases of the cars is meant to temper demand and level out the order-production imbalance, the FSD increase is meant to slow uptake of FSD. They're probably getting enough data from their current fleet of beta testers, and I suspect they're not comfortable giving FSD beta to more people who fall below Tesla's safety score threshold. Meanwhile there are thousands of owners who paid big bucks for FSD but really just have enhanced autopilot--Tesla doesn't want even more FSD buyers sitting around getting disgruntled because they aren't allowed to use it.

 

[bjrosen]

This was my first thought exactly. Just like the price increases of the cars is meant to temper demand and level out the order-production imbalance, the FSD increase is meant to slow uptake of FSD. They're probably getting enough data from their current fleet of beta testers, and I suspect they're not comfortable giving FSD beta to more people who fall below Tesla's safety score threshold. Meanwhile there are thousands of owners who paid big bucks for FSD but really just have enhanced autopilot--Tesla doesn't want even more FSD buyers sitting around getting disgruntled because they aren't allowed to use it.

This isn't about safety scores or FSD Beta, there are already hundreds of thousands of cars that are eligible but haven't met the safety score requirements. Although this price increase will further slow FSD purchases it's not about rationing in the same way as the price increases on the cars is. They can't make enough cars so they are raising prices to ballance supply in demand, FSD is software as such there is no limit on the numbers of cars that can get it.
I saw an article about FSD uptake, not sure where I read it, that said that the take rate has dropped from about 60% in 2019 (when it was $6K) to a very small number now for 3's and Ys, that the only people still buying it in numbers are Model S customers which makes sense, if you are paying $140K for a Plaid why not fully option it and pay $150K.

 

[Nautilus802]

I paid $10k just to make a proper evaluation of the tech and with the knowledge that it would be updated as the tech evolved and “learned.”

However, there is no way I would buy it now. In fact, in its current state, it is a safety hazard. I drive 120 miles per day on my reverse commute, so I would absolutely love for theseo systems to work without killing me. But they sadly don’t. In fact the whole ownership experience, from purchasing to service feels like a beta testing experience.

 

[TresLA]

My opinion seems in the minority on this forum, but I would still get/include it. We are potentially getting a second Tesla soon and will be including FSD Capability package. The primary difference I see that changes how people think about purchasing the extra FSD Capability, is that I have never seen it as paying for what it can offer now. It’s paying for what’s to come.

This Model 3 was my first new car ever (had only purchased used before), and by far the most expensive. It was a stretch financially, but it’s paid off now and ownership experience has been amazingly positive. We avoid using the old gas car as much as possible, but it’s not for environment reasons. We just love this car.

Perhaps there’s some FOMO, perhaps Elon is that good a salesman, but most people that don’t follow Tesla as closely as us also don’t know/listen to Elon. All my Tesla referrals didn‘t know about FSD beta or the Safety Score program before we already had it and told them about it. One friend just learned about his car’s megaphone feature yesterday (and his kids are having a blast with it). They don’t follow Elon’s every word so it’s not a sales pitch they fell for. We see it as paying for something that will probably come someday and we are keeping these cars for a long time so why not lock in the price now? Since we had to pay for even basic AP away back when, I see it as only paying $3k for FSD Capability and new features keep coming. Especially with FSD beta 10.8, it’s actually feeling like it was worth it. So yeah, we will be paying the $12k (for a 3, we can’t afford an S nor X, mainly so we don’t have to worry about paying more in the future for these existing features and future FSD. Even back in 2018, I didn’t believe level 5 FSD was coming soon, but I do believe it will continue to improve. We just don’t have much concept or categories for what exists in that space between cruise control (advanced lane keeping) and sleep-in-the-backseat-while-your-car-drives-you-home.

 

[AndreP]

Paying for software tied to the vehicle for future capability doesn't make a lot of sense to me considering the speed at which EV and car technology in general is moving and in ways that can't be updated OTA. Battery tech alone in terms of safety, storage capacity/density, and charging curves.

EVs are still in their infancy, this stuff will improve hugely over the next handful of years. So even if you end up paying more for FSD in the future, you'll get it on a vehicle that also includes all of these latest developments. Companies will be pushing hard to develop and deploy new hardware to sell more new vehicles.

If we try to sell buying FSD now because it'll include any hardware upgrades required for future functionality, it might be worth reading about what people have endured trying to get their cameras switched out and then FSD functionality.


I don't buy it at all. You could invest that cash, likely make more money over the same period of time than FSD would increase in price, and end up with the best of all worlds when it's said and done.

 

[KJD]

I paid $6K for FSD, I wouldn't do it again knowing what I know now. The idea of paying $12K for something that doesn't work and might never work is crazy.

Yep. I agree 100%.

In 2018 when I bought my Model 3 I paid 3K for FSD then and it was garbage. 3 years later when I traded it in on the Y, FSD was still garbage. No way this package is worth 12K.

 

[ucmndd]

The primary difference I see that changes how people think about purchasing the extra FSD Capability, is that I have never seen it as paying for what it can offer now. It’s paying for what’s to come.

Exactly. I for one will never ever again give Tesla money based on claims or promises of future capability, and I’ll passionately advise others to do the same.

The delusion that “technology gets more expensive over time so you better buy now!” is particularly galling. In what other technology sector has that ever been true?

 

[planetary]

My advice to friends and family considering Teslas: FSD Beta is clearly an enthusiast-only thing right now. Buy it only if you want to [carefully] play with new tech, and if the $10k isn't material to your budget. Avoid otherwise.

 

[EVNow]

I paid $6K for FSD, I wouldn't do it again knowing what I know now. The idea of paying $12K for something that doesn't work and might never work is crazy. I bet their uptake on FSD is going to drop to near zero after this price increase. Does anyone feel that FSD is worth $12K, now or if even if they achieve Level 4 (note that Elon said Level 4 on is annual by the end of next year it will work tweet, in the past he always said Level 5 so he's losing confidence).

Only 20% more insane than paying 10k.

When I buy our next Tesla(s) … I’ll have to figure out what to do. Probably not worth it on Y, but on Cybertruck, probably.

If and when Tesla actually get FSD to work we’ll, they won’t sell FSD for sure. It will be subscription only.

 

[AndreP]

Would be an absolute no-brainer if it weren't tied to vehicle, and I think Tesla would get some (even more) insane brand loyalty from people who bought it and then would stick with their vehicles to continue having the functionality going forward

I don't know about a flat subscription fee either with the range of driving habits out there. A subscription fee that scales based on miles driven in a month or something, that would make a lot of sense to me. They have all the data...

 

[Fairchild]

Price raise is to facilitate subscriptions. Simple. More $$ for TESLA

 

[garrett5688]

current state:

YTer buys Tesla with FSD
YTer shares videos of FSD progress
More views = more income from YT
more income = upgrade to new Tesla, paying for FSD again
Rinse and repeat

All while the YT ads are potentially for other auto manufacturers.

Therefore, competing auto manufacturers are funding FSD

 

[cucubits]

It’s paying for what’s to come

FSD not being worth "xxxx" should really be common knowledge by now. It wasn't worth it ...oh, 6 years ago with their "coming soon" and "next year" promises. I'm having a hard time understanding why would anyone choose to pay for it at this point. It got more expensive and features got worse than the good old AP1 in some cases. There are sooo many other better things to do with 10-12k than gifting it to tesla...

 

[Ruffles]

I paid 8k, and I'd still pay for it. To me, it's no different than other modifications I do on my cars such as rims or suspension. I like having the top spec for a car and if I need to save up a little longer to afford it, so be it. I've been very impressed with FSD beta and will have it on all my future cars.

 

[kabin]

I agree, it's not worth it. Maybe Musk is trying to recoup future hardware costs.

But I have to admit it's surprising how ridiculously fast those end of quarter FSD equipped (reddit inventory) vehicles sold given all the issues.

 

[cucubits]

it's no different than other modifications I do on my cars such as rims

spot on ))

 

[coselectric]

I'm a FSD beta tester, early 100 scorer. I upgraded to FSD from EAP a couple years ago because the incremental cost at the time was only $3K. I'm generally a huge Tesla fan, and I have immensely enjoyed testing FSD on my 2018 Model 3.

But... I have to agree that I wouldn't pay $10K for it now, and I didn't pay for it on our second Tesla, a Model Y that we purchased roughly a year ago. The only way I could see buying FSD now is if (1) you have enough wealth that the $10K, or $12K soon I guess, is insignificant compared to your wealth level, and (2) you are curious about watching the technology develop. Even being a genuine kool-aid drinking Tesla fan, I don't buy the whole "get it now while you can before we raise the price because it's going to be sooooo awesome" pitch.

But I still do not regret buying it for my Model 3 one bit. One of my teenage kids is probably destined for an engineering career (like me) and is immensely interested in EVs and self-driving automotive technology. The extra $3K that I spent on FSD has been well worth the inspiration that it has given him. But $12K, or even $10K... probably not. The only way I would ever pay for it in our Model Y is if my wife eventually wanted it, and right now she downright refuses to drive with me in the Model 3 if I'm using FSD because it stresses her out so much, so I don't see that happening anytime soon.

 

[buyleonard]

I paid 8k

Same, and I've immensly enjoyed it, just for the auto lane changes on long trips. And FSD 10.8 is realy fun to play with it. But if I had to do it over again, I would have invested the 8k in Tesla stock, since if they ever get to L4, the stock will go through the roof...