75 S and X discontinued

[MorrisonHiker]

If I'm wrong, and there's no 2170 next week, the I really really wonder what IS going to happen next week. Certainly there will be two battery options. What would they be?

In Model S range and interior update imminent?, @wdolson made a good hypothesis about them bringing back an 85 kWh version:

If Tesla just makes a pack with the same modules as the current 100KWH with only 14 modules, it works out to around 85 KWH, so that is probably what Tesla will be doing if they don't drop the base pack entirely and make the 100 KWH the only option. It makes sense to get rid of the different module for the 75 pack, it's the same module as the 90 pack, only 14 of them to the pack.

That makes sense...but personally, I wish the 100 kWh battery would become the standard range battery and see them introduce something like 120 kWh for the long range battery.

 

[sandpiper]

In Model S range and interior update imminent?, @wdolson made a good hypothesis about them bringing back an 85 kWh version:



That makes sense...but I personally, I wish the 100 kWh battery would become the short range battery and see them introduce something like 120 kWh for the long range battery.

Hmmm... that would make the 85 and 100 pretty close in capacity. And so they'd have to close the price gap. That might cause issues.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Hmmm... that would make the 85 and 100 pretty close in capacity. And so they'd have to close the price gap. That might cause issues.

Yeah, but remember they offered the 75/90 at the same time...and even 90/100 at the same time in the past (and maybe even 85/90 IIRC).

I'm still hoping for 100 to be the "short" range!

 

[ohmman]

and even 90/100 at the same time in the past (and maybe even 85/90 IIRC).

I do think in these two cases it was a process of phasing out pack inventory on the smaller packs, not necessarily two discrete offerings.

 

[ucmndd]

If I'm wrong, and there's no 2170 next week, the I really really wonder what IS going to happen next week. Certainly there will be two battery options. What would they be?

My prediction:

$5-7k price cut on 100 models to absorb some of the cost differential
No second battery option. The 100 stands alone for 3-6 months.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

I do think in these two cases it was a process of phasing out pack inventory on the smaller packs, not necessarily two discrete offerings.

That could be true for the 85/90 but when they brought out the 100, it was only the P100 for something like the last 5 months of 2016. Then they brought out the non-P 100 in 1/2017 and still built those for 6+ months to fill those orders, right alongside the 100s that they started delivering in early 2017.

 

[ucmndd]

IF there's an "85" ish option I think it will be a software locked 100 to maintain higher supercharging rates. As I said back on the first page, I don't think Tesla can sell "flagship" cars any more that won't receive a tangible benefit from Supercharger v3.

 

[SilkySmooth]

Those for whom a Model 3 is too small and a Model S/X is too pricey will probably be opting for a Model Y when available. At least that is what I would do.

 

[sandpiper]

My prediction:

$5-7k price cut on 100 models to absorb some of the cost differential
No second battery option. The 100 stands alone for 3-6 months.

Elon already agreed that they were moving to SR/LR. So, in the minimum case we would be looking at an 85 SR and LR 100. And to me that gap just seems too small.

Add that to the need to be able to take higher charge rates, and I think we're looking at something more.

 

[Racerx22b]

Elon already agreed that they were moving to SR/LR

Proof

 

[ucmndd]

Proof

I don't see how that confirms there will continue to be two battery options for S/X next week.

 

[David29]

While I was reading this, I got a text from a local Tesla sales advisor telling me about this and suggesting I reply if I am interested in upgrading. I texted back that I thought it was an unfortunate decision and said that I was not in the market at the moment.
Good outreach, though, I suppose....

 

[Racerx22b]

I don't see how that confirms there will continue to be two battery options for S/X next week.

He confirms he is going to follow the format currently in place for the model 3. As a reminder, the model 3 offers a mid range and long range battery. As well as a performance option.

His tweet response confirms he is going to follow this format for the S and X along with eliminating battery sizes.

 

[ohmman]

Well, whatever happens, I'd like to know soon. I've been trying to plan my month long summer camper road trip, and a bigger range changes my plans significantly. I don't want to sink too much more time into my efforts until I have a better idea whether I'm going to continue to be limited to 115 miles of range or not. Please, make it not.

 

[sandpiper]

I don't see how that confirms there will continue to be two battery options for S/X next week.

Of course it is not proof. Until they have an actual announcement, or until the website is updated.

But, there's not been a time since 2012 when Tesla has only offered a single battery size... ever. I'm not seeing a compelling reason to do so now.

More to the point, Tesla needs a more moderately priced S, or they will lose a bunch of buyers for whom the 3 is just too small. And they need an expensive one to bring in the big margins. Going with one battery would kill that strategy. And yes there is still the P, but there are a lot of people (like me) who really aren't interested in accelerating fast enough to make my their ears bleed.

They will have a Model S LR and SR. For sure.

 

[Reddy Kilowatt]

Cross posting this from the investor's forum section...
*******************


Logic says that we're going to get a new set of 2170 S/X batteries announced next week - a long range and a standard range.. And I also expect that it will be shipping almost immediately. Here's my reasoning.

1) There's not a chance that Tesla maintains a single battery option for the S. They can't kill the lower cost S, since that's where most of their sales are. And they can't kill the longer range one since that's where most of the margin is.

2) It would be stupid to spend the money on a new 18650 battery.

3) They've stabilized the 3 production line, and Panasonic is likely able to open more 2170 capacity.

4) They want to make a splash with supercharger V3. They can't announce that all model 3s can charge at a higher rate, while limiting all production model S's to a lower rate. That would be a disaster.

5) The 3P has to be hurting S sales. They need something to drive Q1. In order to get a sales bump shipped during Q1, they need to start orders now.



My $.02

I tend to agree with most of this.

Also wasn't there an article last year where Tesla applied for Patient that strongly implied that the S&X would be moving to the 2170 cells?

My 75D is perfect and there are a ton of them here in Northern VA. I also dropped the 3 reservation in favor of upgrading to the S. IF they were to delete the model and or that price range Tesla would be shooting themselves in the foot. Especially with Jaguar and Audi coming on line. Tesla won't make it easy for them to grab market share.

So I personally think that Tesla is going to go with the 2170 battery upgrade. Up the range dramatically and the improved charging capability and leave the competition in the dust again. Now what is the price change I don't know, but my gut is it won't change.

We still don't know what the tariff's if any will impact pricing, so product it here in the USA on expanded production lines and not have to import them. Hopefully it is cheaper. Economies of scale may also tilt production to the 2170 as a cheaper option.

I don't see a refresh coming soon. They learned to much with the 3 and need to update the drive trains on the S&X.

 

[4SUPER9]

And, my 75D is not even 2 weeks old...

 

[sandpiper]

And, my 75D is not even 2 weeks old...

Get used to it. This happens to all of us. A Tesla is like a smartphone on wheels - for both good and bad. It't the latest and greatest today - and borderline obsolete tomorrow.

 

[whitex]

That is where I think Tesla will have a problem. Tesla kind of sucks at customer service, replacement parts, service, etc. And once we get past the people that couldn't wait to get their hands on a Tesla, I think there is plenty that chases people away.

I'll add that yes, I know my opinion isn't popular here.

While I don't dispute that Tesla has some other problems with parts and service which will affect customer experience, that is a separate topic, completely unrelated to whether or not they discontinue the 75 and/or have a bigger price gap between S and 3.

 

[sandpiper]

I tend to agree with most of this.

Also wasn't there an article last year where Tesla applied for Patient that strongly implied that the S&X would be moving to the 2170 cells?

My 75D is perfect and there are a ton of them here in Northern VA. I also dropped the 3 reservation in favor of upgrading to the S. IF they were to delete the model and or that price range Tesla would be shooting themselves in the foot. Especially with Jaguar and Audi coming on line. Tesla won't make it easy for them to grab market share.

So I personally think that Tesla is going to go with the 2170 battery upgrade. Up the range dramatically and the improved charging capability and leave the competition in the dust again. Now what is the price change I don't know, but my gut is it won't change.

We still don't know what the tariff's if any will impact pricing, so product it here in the USA on expanded production lines and not have to import them. Hopefully it is cheaper. Economies of scale may also tilt production to the 2170 as a cheaper option.

I don't see a refresh coming soon. They learned to much with the 3 and need to update the drive trains on the S&X.

I think the refresh is coming soon... just not yet. Summer or fall make more sense to me. Some of the things that need to be updated will require modification right down to bones of the car.