I was a potential Model 3 buyer (first day reservation, etc.), but didn't like it so I bought the 75D. Tesla's profit from me would go to zero.
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75 S and X discontinued
- Thread starter fasteddie7
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- 100 kwh 100d 75 kwh cancel discontinued
I was a potential Model 3 buyer (first day reservation, etc.), but didn't like it so I bought the 75D. Tesla's profit from me would go to zero.
whitex
Well-Known Member
Remember, profit is a statistics or a final tally game, you don't have to sell to everyone to maximize your profit. As long as most people would rather buy a Model 3 than nothing, Tesla wins.
At least I have free supercharging with my S75D. 
What's the pobability of a 75 battery failing? I would be sooooo sad if it failed in a year from now
What's the pobability of a 75 battery failing?
I would be sooooo sad if it failed in a year from now That is where I think Tesla will have a problem. Tesla kind of sucks at customer service, replacement parts, service, etc. And once we get past the people that couldn't wait to get their hands on a Tesla, I think there is plenty that chases people away.
I'll add that yes, I know my opinion isn't popular here.
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I'm a long time owner and fan. But yeah... Tesla has some issues around service and and parts. They also need to set up SCs in smaller centers. In my case it's a 400 km drive to the closest one. That's okay for an exotic car, but if Tesla is intending to be mainstream they need to have local support in the way that all of the other automakers do. I'd like to imagine that nothing will ever fail on these cars but that's not been my experience.
It would be great if it failed because there is some chance you'd get a 100kW battery replacement, just like 85 owners sometimessget 90s and 90 owners 100s. Although there will likely still be 75s in parts inventory in a year.
In Japan where model 3 has not been released, the design studio still shows S75D and X75D, March or later delivery. This might suggest something.
SilkySmooth
Member
With only a new 100 battery remaining, I would guess cutting the supply of HW 2.5 75s would be a relative positive for resale values.
Cross posting this from the investor's forum section...
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Logic says that we're going to get a new set of 2170 S/X batteries announced next week - a long range and a standard range.. And I also expect that it will be shipping almost immediately. Here's my reasoning.
1) There's not a chance that Tesla maintains a single battery option for the S. They can't kill the lower cost S, since that's where most of their sales are. And they can't kill the longer range one since that's where most of the margin is.
2) It would be stupid to spend the money on a new 18650 battery.
3) They've stabilized the 3 production line, and Panasonic is likely able to open more 2170 capacity.
4) They want to make a splash with supercharger V3. They can't announce that all model 3s can charge at a higher rate, while limiting all production model S's to a lower rate. That would be a disaster.
5) The 3P has to be hurting S sales. They need something to drive Q1. In order to get a sales bump shipped during Q1, they need to start orders now.
I tend to doubt the refresh just yet, but there are three things that points that direction:
1) There's a significant difference in how the battery cooling and heating work in the 3 vs the S/X. I don't know how much of that is important to being able to sustain the higher charge rate. But if it is, that would imply that they've had to rework a bunch of the guts in the S/X. They're not going to do that in the existing body, and then change the body again a few months later.
2) The 3 in China has two charge ports under the door. It makes sense for Tesla to roll that out in the NA with both CCS and Tesla ports. They're not going to offer that feature on the 3, but not the S/X. Yet it's not possible to do that on the S/X without revisions to the bodywork. And they're not going to revise the bodywork twice in short succession, as with 1 above.
3) They're expecting to make an announcement on the Y Q2-ish, Musk Standard Time, and maybe show the pickup as well. Tesla likes to spread their announcements across the year. This would be a good window in which to introduce a revised S/X, so as to not have the Y steal its thunder.
My $.02
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Logic says that we're going to get a new set of 2170 S/X batteries announced next week - a long range and a standard range.. And I also expect that it will be shipping almost immediately. Here's my reasoning.
1) There's not a chance that Tesla maintains a single battery option for the S. They can't kill the lower cost S, since that's where most of their sales are. And they can't kill the longer range one since that's where most of the margin is.
2) It would be stupid to spend the money on a new 18650 battery.
3) They've stabilized the 3 production line, and Panasonic is likely able to open more 2170 capacity.
4) They want to make a splash with supercharger V3. They can't announce that all model 3s can charge at a higher rate, while limiting all production model S's to a lower rate. That would be a disaster.
5) The 3P has to be hurting S sales. They need something to drive Q1. In order to get a sales bump shipped during Q1, they need to start orders now.
I tend to doubt the refresh just yet, but there are three things that points that direction:
1) There's a significant difference in how the battery cooling and heating work in the 3 vs the S/X. I don't know how much of that is important to being able to sustain the higher charge rate. But if it is, that would imply that they've had to rework a bunch of the guts in the S/X. They're not going to do that in the existing body, and then change the body again a few months later.
2) The 3 in China has two charge ports under the door. It makes sense for Tesla to roll that out in the NA with both CCS and Tesla ports. They're not going to offer that feature on the 3, but not the S/X. Yet it's not possible to do that on the S/X without revisions to the bodywork. And they're not going to revise the bodywork twice in short succession, as with 1 above.
3) They're expecting to make an announcement on the Y Q2-ish, Musk Standard Time, and maybe show the pickup as well. Tesla likes to spread their announcements across the year. This would be a good window in which to introduce a revised S/X, so as to not have the Y steal its thunder.
My $.02
It doesn't mean anything. Tesla has, several times, shipped larger batteries that were software limited to the capacity of the smaller battery that the owner had actually ordered. In some cases the owners were given the option to unlock the capacity of the bigger battery at a cost. This happened when Tesla went from the 40 to 60, 70D to 75D. And 60 to 70 in some cases if I recall correctly.
powaking
Member
I just picked up my 2018 75D MS on 12/31. The M3 is just too small for our family of 5 and the X is just a bit out of my budget. If the 100D was the only option for the S then I may have not gotten a Tesla at all. If the price can be comparable to what they currently are with the new battery pack then it may not hurt their S/X sale numbers. If they get pushed out even further out of reach for most people then it may hurt them in the end.
I like those two pennies a lot. I don't know their actual value yet, but they're super shiny and appealing.
Exactly. And a lot of people are in this boat. That's why I say there is no chance that Tesla will have only one battery for the S/X. Plus, they've never had only one battery for any car in the past, ever. Well... maybe the Roadster??? But that predates me.
ucmndd
Well-Known Member
This strikes me as the likely eventuality but highly optimistic logic for “next week”.
M3 and Powerwall production is still far too fragile and variable for Tesla to rush into adding a whole lot more 2170 cell dependent vehicles.
We’ll certainly see two battery options again and 2170 cells, but I don’t see any way that’s not months out vs. weeks.
If the 3 production is fragile, it's likely nothing to do with the 2170. Panasonic has, I'm sure, worked out the bugs. There's nothing particularly unusual about he the 2170 production line. It's just a matter of building more parallel sets. It could also be that Panasonic has built some 2170 capacity in Japan, and that that will be feeding the S/X.
If I'm wrong, and there's no 2170 next week, the I really really wonder what IS going to happen next week. Certainly there will be two battery options. What would they be?
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If it works, why change? I too am very happy with my S75 and have no reason to change.
