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AU Pricing

mhh

Member
Jul 24, 2014
333
53
Adelaide
Very interesting thread, this one.

I’m struggling to see how this is good for Tesla. They were only just making money at last week’s prices. With the price drop, they are giving away a large chunk of gross margin but don’t have the production capacity to hugely increase the number of cars being built. So their revenue must decline and they will soon be back to burning cash.

A fully optioned P100D now looks like a dead-set bargain, but only if the company survives.
 

Vostok

Active Member
Jul 1, 2017
1,395
1,492
Sydney
Given you are in sydney, its likely you will see your house fall in value substsntially. Hopefully not circa 35%, but thay may well happen.
Mine has probably gone down by >10%, not that I’ve noticed, it still looks the same. It’s funny though how when prices are rising strongly people say that as long as you buy and sell in the same market you’re fine, but they don’t seem to say that when prices are falling even though it is equally true.

Really Sydney has seen irrational price rises over a number of years and this is little more than reversion to mean - but the hand-wringing going on is “interesting” to watch.
 

ShockOnT

⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
Jun 26, 2016
3,346
3,034
Sydney
Very interesting thread, this one.

I’m struggling to see how this is good for Tesla. They were only just making money at last week’s prices. With the price drop, they are giving away a large chunk of gross margin but don’t have the production capacity to hugely increase the number of cars being built. So their revenue must decline and they will soon be back to burning cash.

A fully optioned P100D now looks like a dead-set bargain, but only if the company survives.
That's what confuses me too.
I thought Tesla was production-constrained. I would have thought they'd even keep delaying the cheap M3 too, let alone take a huge chunk out of their cash cows (S and X).
Personally I'm happy they are dropping the prices. They actually need to be lower. I'd like to see them start hurting the prestige market around $100K, things like the Audi A5, A6, S5 etc.
A friend just bought an Audi Q7 for $110K. The MX was $150K for the 75D at the time.
 

paulp

Active Member
Jul 23, 2015
2,680
1,221
Adelaide, Australia
Mine has probably gone down by >10%, not that I’ve noticed, it still looks the same. It’s funny though how when prices are rising strongly people say that as long as you buy and sell in the same market you’re fine, but they don’t seem to say that when prices are falling even though it is equally true.

Really Sydney has seen irrational price rises over a number of years and this is little more than reversion to mean - but the hand-wringing going on is “interesting” to watch.

The funny thing about any asset, is that it can rise and fall all it wants, but you dont gain or lose until the day you sell.
It’s only when you are forced to sell, should the prices be low, that you get yourself in a bit of trouble.
 

paulp

Active Member
Jul 23, 2015
2,680
1,221
Adelaide, Australia
Very interesting thread, this one.

I’m struggling to see how this is good for Tesla. They were only just making money at last week’s prices. With the price drop, they are giving away a large chunk of gross margin but don’t have the production capacity to hugely increase the number of cars being built. So their revenue must decline and they will soon be back to burning cash.

A fully optioned P100D now looks like a dead-set bargain, but only if the company survives.
To be fair you dont really know what capacity they have to build more S and X.
In any market you can go high volume low margin, or low volume high margin. Clearly the brains trust at tesla think they will gain more with lower margins and higher volumes. I’m sure they have researched and modelled it to death.
Also 6 models of vehicles announced (3 available), 3 massive factories (3rd one finishes in May), a very healthy international energy business, and a share price well above the true value.
4 years ago.....1 model of vehicle with cruise control, 1 factory, and a big bold statement about making an affordable car and an suv.
Seems like a company thats growing too me, not failing, and given that level of success is way beyond anything anyone on this forum has achieved, and I’m sure the same brains have the future sorted. History is on their side.
 
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paulp

Active Member
Jul 23, 2015
2,680
1,221
Adelaide, Australia
That's what confuses me too.
I thought Tesla was production-constrained. I would have thought they'd even keep delaying the cheap M3 too, let alone take a huge chunk out of their cash cows (S and X).
Personally I'm happy they are dropping the prices. They actually need to be lower. I'd like to see them start hurting the prestige market around $100K, things like the Audi A5, A6, S5 etc.
A friend just bought an Audi Q7 for $110K. The MX was $150K for the 75D at the time.
If you look at the australian design studio, the delivery date for a new S suggests they are not production constrained.
 

Mark E

Member
Jun 27, 2012
860
176
Sydney NSW
Has no-one also thought that there might be a refresh of the S and X just around the corner? Today they showed a Mod 3 charging at 250kW.
 

ShockOnT

⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
Jun 26, 2016
3,346
3,034
Sydney
Has no-one also thought that there might be a refresh of the S and X just around the corner? Today they showed a Mod 3 charging at 250kW.
I'm certain this is the case.
Price drop to run out the S and X inventory, greatly reduced customisation options on config page.
 

paulp

Active Member
Jul 23, 2015
2,680
1,221
Adelaide, Australia
I'm certain this is the case.
Price drop to run out the S and X inventory, greatly reduced customisation options on config page.
Other than the price drop of circa $3000 for the 75D isnt going to do a lot to change sales numbers. The big price drop is for the P100DL. Fairly certain that had to drop to make roadster a proposition.
The customisation reductions started mid last year. Tesla were quite clear that too many options was slowing production.
 

paulp

Active Member
Jul 23, 2015
2,680
1,221
Adelaide, Australia
Has no-one also thought that there might be a refresh of the S and X just around the corner? Today they showed a Mod 3 charging at 250kW.
That was a demo of V3 supercharging (released today) only available on the 3. The announcement also said that incremental improvements on charge speed will occur via update over the coming months. ‘Coming months’ is very different to ‘coming models’ or ‘future models’
 

ShockOnT

⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
Jun 26, 2016
3,346
3,034
Sydney
Other than the price drop of circa $3000 for the 75D isnt going to do a lot to change sales numbers. The big price drop is for the P100DL. Fairly certain that had to drop to make roadster a proposition.
The customisation reductions started mid last year. Tesla were quite clear that too many options was slowing production.
True, although the new "Standard Range" has more range than the old S75D (520 vs 490km NEDC).
Also, the difference between models was magnified by LCT, which is why Australian P100D buyers were hit so hard. Blame the feds!
I still think S and X are going to be refreshed soon (this year) with new battery tech and AP3 at least, if not also a design refresh. It's not sustainable for the M3 to have 250kW peak charging with S and X maxing at 145kW with more to fill.
 

ShockOnT

⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
Jun 26, 2016
3,346
3,034
Sydney
One thing I’ve learned is to get an inventory car next time. Might be a while before the new cars show up on inventory though.
Crazy thing is there are two S75Ds on inventory list at the moment, priced $2000 less than the new standard.
 

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