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CA Waiting Room

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The issue or question is how they're going to handle CA deliveries in the first two months of Q3. As has been noted numerous times, CA deliveries are typically bunched at the end of the quarter for various reasons. The data (at least from last quarter) shows that if you live in CA and you don't get your car by quarter's end, your chances of getting a car in the following month fall pretty drastically.

I know it's not the best calculation but at a basic level, if you look at the spreadsheet, there were 258 deliveries in CA in March (end of Q1). By contrast, there were only 30 deliveries in April. Now this doesn't take into account order date or anything but it's obvious that April deliveries to CA decline pretty fast compared to March. If you go back further, there were only 8 CA deliveries in the first month of Q1 (January) and only 11 in the second month (February).

Again, every quarter is different and doesn't fully dictate the next. However considering the parts/chip shortage looks like it's going to last till the end of the year and the demand for the Y is so high that it now seems Q3 is already close to being sold out, it doesn't look great. I just hope that Tesla does the right thing and prioritizes people on the west coast who ordered in May as there were plenty of people on the on the East coast and midwest who ordered in late May and already received their vehicle.
They have no choice. If demand continues at current pace, they won't be able to deliver all west coast orders (50% of all orders) in September.
 
Pay the $100 to reserve. Then talk to your SA. Most people I think said that you’ll get your existing reservation price (if it’s gone up since you ordered). Not sure if you get the $100 back. But if you wait and just have your SA transfer it without reserving, it’ll most likely be gone by the time he/she gets back to you.
Beware of doing that cause when i got mine that way, they said that it wasn’t possible and almost lost the $100. had to create a whole new support ticket to get that fixed. Best route is to go to the store and talk to an SA and have them assign that car to your original order.
 
Just curious how many April people still waiting with no Vin? Assemble
I actually ordered in March 31st. Blue, black interior and 7 seater. I've been very patient... only texted SA once and called delivery center once last week. When I ordered I knew that this would be a long wait since we're in CA but it will be worth it. My last 2019 M3 (also blue) only took 3 weeks to receive (ordered in May & received in June 2019). I never really looked at EDD since it changes everyday, only had September one day but the rest were either June or July range...figures I'll eventually get it soon enough.
Took my parents in a couple weeks ago 5/30 to order their MY in silver, 5 seater. They will probably get it before me, haha!
 
2 quarters of past data from a specific population is still a guestimate, especially with variables like chip delays and factory shut downs.
We just wait and sooner or later a delivery occurs regardless of when you order or what you ordered.
what’s tough is that there’s so many toting how this is the best car experience there is, but ultimately it’s been the worst. I’d take the used car sales man versus a Tesla advisor which I think now is equivalent to those people that stand around the carts giving out free lotion samples to explain the benefits of softer skin with the use of the cream they’re selling.
 
I decided that I will wait out for my original build and wait for my Vin. It was just a frustration and me being anxious that I wanted a car now. I like the black but something about that MSM looks clean. Hey at least I got to know how it feels like to get the BIG BLUE BUTTON! Even if it cost me $100 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤬🤑
Everybody has to make the choice for themselves but I personally think you made the right one. We’ve waited this long and there’s just something about getting a new car that has only been driven a few miles between the factory and delivery center. I think the April Blues, MSMs, and and Reds will be coming off the line in the next 7 days and we’ll see them soon.