Chevy Bolt - 200 mile range for $30k base price (after incentive)

[flathillll]

Actually have to agree with tftf on this one, $3K cell cost for a 60kWh pack means $50/kWh. Not a chance, not even in Elon's most ambitious projections of $80/kWh materials cost.

$80/kwh was a GUESS based on 2012 spot prices. if you haven't noticed the Bloomberg commodity index is back to 1999 levels

Telsa will not be paying spot price (hint hint)

spot price is not the floor

they will be producing cells at what other's consider "material cost" based on the spot price (IE the material cost will be below spot price)

Remember Elon never shows all his cards

 

[MacroP]

Wasn't LG already quoted saying $145/kWh?

It was mentioned by GM in one of their Powerpoint presentations a short while back. I don't think LG were too happy with GM releasing that info for both public and competitor consumption.

So I guess the real total cell value within the Bolt's battery is $145 x 60 = $8700. Adding the cost of the enclosure, BMS, Thermal management etc etc we are well into the $10k range and more like $12k range just for the completed battery. As expected.

 

[eloder]

On the Spark EV, the CCS port is a $750 option. One would hope that the Bolt option would be comparably priced (or, of course, less).

I'll be interested to see how it actually works out. Chademo port on the Leaf is something like twice that cost.

If GM really is going for a zero-profit car (initially / for compliance, given the 30k/limit), they may try to recoup costs through options more heavily than carmakers usually do.

The Bolt definitely is way above my expectations, but they still have the dealer network, slow charging with no charging network, and no autonomous features to worry about that Tesla will have. And just keep in mind the Model 3 is $27.5k after incentives / fed credit, and likely will have far more standard than the Bolt. Hopefully Musk's initial comments don't mean the car will be a weirdmobile.

 

[flathillll]

It was mentioned by GM in one of their Powerpoint presentations a short while back. I don't think LG were too happy with GM releasing that info for both public and competitor consumption.

So I guess the real total cell value within the Bolt's battery is $145 x 60 = $8700. Adding the cost of the enclosure, BMS, Thermal management etc etc we are well into the $10k range and more like $12k range just for the completed battery. As expected.

BatPaC - Battery Performance and Cost model - Home

The recent penetration of lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries into the vehicle market has prompted interest in projecting and understanding the costs of this family of chemistries being used to electrify the automotive powertrain. Additionally, research laboratories throughout the U.S. Department of Energy complex and various academic institutions are developing new materials for Li-ion batteries every day. The performance of the materials within the battery directly affects the end energy density and cost of the integrated battery pack. The development of a publically available model that can project bench-scale results to real world battery pack values would be of great use. This first version of the model, the battery performance and cost (BatPaC) model, represents the only public domain model that captures the interplay between design and cost of Li-ion batteries for transportation applications.

"""""

remember the big unknown with regards to cost is the energy density. only power density is directly dictated by material cost inputs. new high energy materials means cost projections based on material cost go out the window (hint hint 5V electrolyte). Tesla is going to kill GM. The Bolt is an outsourced piece of junk econobox with no autonomous capability and average performance. They could not have aimed any lower

 

[Krugerrand]

How do you know that? We've seen the Bolt, it's tech and specs (pending EPA on range) but haven't even seen a sketch of what the Model 3 will look like let alone it's specs and features.

But yeah, if you need me to answer that: Tesla has said from day one what the base price would be for a Model 3, and that IS lower than the base price of the Bolt. And while GM has given us some sort of specs for the Bolt (mostly just copying what Tesla said they'd be doing), Tesla is the only company to actually produce a real world 200 mile EV and they've guaranteed the same for the Model 3. Tesla has the SuperCharger network, GM does not. Tesla continues to advance AP, GM isn't even in the same ballpark. Tesla does OTA updates, GM not so much. Do I need to go on?

 

[MacroP]

new high energy materials means cost projections based on material cost go out the window (hint hint 5V electrolyte). Tesla is going to kill GM. The Bolt is an outsourced piece of junk econobox with no autonomous capability and average performance. They could not have aimed any lower

Sorry are you trying to make a point in any of this? I was merely pointing out that your guess of $3000 dollars was way off the more realistic $9000.

 

[Jeff N]

Doubtful. 90 miles in 30 min sure sounds slower than 90 kW.

I was attempting to point out that GM may announce faster charging capability later in the year based on CCS DC Level 2 (aka "90 kW" 200A) when they get closer to production and possibly in conjunction with an effort to install these faster CCS stations along highway routes in Tesla SuperCharger fashion. It's just my own speculation. There aren't really any installed "90 kW" CCS stations yet so it makes sense right now to frame the Bolt's charge times relative to chargers that are actually deployed today already. Mary Barra isn't stupid and just about everyone has been giving GM free advice that the Bolt needs highway DC charging infrastructure. Other CCS compatible auto makers have already made public commitments around this and GM has been oddly silent in comparison. I suspect there is a reason.

 

[bonnie]

I'm thrilled about the Bolt. There is a huge segment of the population that thinks of Tesla as some 'left wing hippie tree hugging subsidy taking' electric vehicle company. But GM? They LOVE GM. Merica. This is awesome. People who scoffed at EVs will start to take them seriously and pay attention. A whole new group of people will be cross-shopping against Tesla Model 3s, thanks to GM and Volt. Good for the planet. We all win.

A little competition never hurt anyone. Yay.

 

[jeremyz]

I wonder how long the Model 3 will qualify for the full federal tax credit. There have been a little over 60k model S's sold in the United States. If Tesla sells 25k Model S's per year and 25k Model X's pear year in the United States in 2017 and 2018, there will only be 40k slots before the tax credit starts to phase out for Tesla. When they're selling the S, X and 3 at the same time, it probably won't be long before the phase-out is hit (like 6 months). Then you get 2 quarters of 50% tax credit and 2 quarters of 25% tax credit. If the Bolt is only expected to sell 30k units per year, the Chevy's tax credit may last longer than Tesla's.

The Bolt definitely is way above my expectations, but they still have the dealer network, slow charging with no charging network, and no autonomous features to worry about that Tesla will have. And just keep in mind the Model 3 is $27.5k after incentives / fed credit, and likely will have far more standard than the Bolt. Hopefully Musk's initial comments don't mean the car will be a weirdmobile.

 

[techmaven]

I was attempting to point out that GM may announce faster charging capability later in the year based on CCS DC Level 2 (aka "90 kW" 200A) when they get closer to production and possibly in conjunction with an effort to install these faster CCS stations along highway routes in Tesla SuperCharger fashion. It's just my own speculation. There aren't really any installed "90 kW" CCS stations yet so it makes sense right now to frame the Bolt's charge times relative to chargers that are actually deployed today already. Mary Barra isn't stupid and just about everyone has been giving GM free advice that the Bolt needs highway DC charging infrastructure. Other CCS compatible auto makers have already made public commitments around this and GM has been oddly silent in comparison. I suspect there is a reason.

The Bolt as 288 cells, 96 cells in 3 groups. At 3 volts, that's 288 volts. At 4.1 volts, that's 393 volts. So if there was no taper, at best that's 393 volts x 200 amps = 78.6 kW. When first plugging in, it's more like 60 kW. Most likely, the top this pack can take is somewhere just higher than 70 kW off a 200 amp EVSE (nominal 100 kW). If the charging c-rate is very high, then maybe 74 kW.

To get higher rate charging, GM would have to put in wiring for higher than 200 amps and get a new CCS plug standard that can take more than 200 amps. Maybe they'll future proof by putting in wiring that can take 400 amps and use a 200 amp plug, then make a 400 amp plug upgrade available later. Or just let first year or two Bolt owners feel screwed.

 

[flathillll]

Sorry are you trying to make a point in any of this? I was merely pointing out that your guess of $3000 dollars was way off the more realistic $9000.

few points

bolt is a piece of junk and no threat to Tesla

GM is getting ripped off paying $145/kWh

GM should make their own cells and own motor and own inverter and most critically the

they outsourced their future


gigafactory cells will have much higher energy density than lg cells which means your cost guess is way off

 

[RobStark]

Wasn't LG already quoted saying $145/kWh?

Yes, but GM is also buying all the high value added electronics in Bolt from LG.

The cells are likely a loss leader to secure the other sales.

- - - Updated - - -

If the Bolt is only expected to sell 30k units per year, the Chevy's tax credit may last longer than Tesla's.

The Volt and Spark EV have also taken some of the 200k available Federal Credits .

About 90k.

GM will likely run out before Tesla.

So will Nissan.

But not by much.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Good for GM. The Bolt looks like a quality product. The only major advantage I see the M3 having over the Bolt is the supercharger network. You could argue the gigafactory is a another advantage for Tesla but it's also a huge investment, one that will take many years to recoup and one that GM for now is allowing suppliers to make. Time will tell which is smarter.

I want to add a bit of my own analysis, because I don't think this will be true, at least going by the preliminary specs: http://www.motortrend.com/news/2017-chevrolet-bolt-ev-preliminary-specifications-released/

The Bolt's chassis uses MacPhearson struts in the front and a torsion beam in the back. This might not matter much on smooth test roads, but the lack of an independent rear suspension will likely hurt ride quality and handling on pavement that is in less than pristine condition. A sport sedan like Model 3 would at a minimum use a sophisticated independent multi-link rear suspension and probably a double wishbone front (although a MacPhearson setup would not surprise me -- BMW and Honda have both moved many models to MacPhearson front configurations with no noticeable loss in handling competency).

Model 3 will likely have a much higher degree of overall refinement (NVH, interior quality), available AWD, and much better passing power. Top speed is a minor point, but no serious sport sedan is going to be limited to 91 MPH like the Bolt.

These cars don't play in the same market space.

A Bolt is like a Honda Fit or Honda HR-V (The Bolt's overall length of 164" falls right in between the Fit's 160" and the HR-V's 169"), and has similar "tall" interior space and suspension setup.

I think it is likely that the Bolt will be a good CUV, but it's not built on a sport sedan platform and isn't meant to be a premium/luxury sport sedan.

 

[Jeff N]

The Bolt as 288 cells, 96 cells in 3 groups. At 3 volts, that's 288 volts. At 4.1 volts, that's 393 volts. So if there was no taper, at best that's 393 volts x 200 amps = 78.6 kW. When first plugging in, it's more like 60 kW. Most likely, the top this pack can take is somewhere just higher than 70 kW off a 200 amp EVSE (nominal 100 kW). If the charging c-rate is very high, then maybe 74 kW.

Agreed.

To get higher rate charging, GM would have to put in wiring for higher than 200 amps and get a new CCS plug standard that can take more than 200 amps. Maybe they'll future proof by putting in wiring that can take 400 amps and use a 200 amp plug, then make a 400 amp plug upgrade available later. Or just let first year or two Bolt owners feel screwed.

I doubt that they will bother with anything beyond 200A for the initial year or two of production.

 

[stopcrazypp]

GM is getting ripped off paying $145/kWh

$145/kWh is a very good price for a third party supplier (non-joint venture). I bet no one outside of Tesla is even close, not even the Nissan/NEC AESC joint venture (for the current gen cells including for the 30kWh pack; all bets are off for next gen Leaf). Like Rob points out, there has been a lot of talk that this is a loss leader price to force GM to use LG as a supplier for other parts (as an explanation why LG got really pissed off that GM leaked that number in a presentation).

I think GM got a pretty good deal for their volume goals.

 

[flathillll]

Yes, but GM is also buying all the high value added electronics in Bolt from LG.

The cells are likely a loss leader to secure the other sales.

- - - Updated - - -

not likely as you can already buy almost handmade junky hobby grade prismatic cells (used in rc) for $165/kwh wholesale in Chine and they are high power cells (meaning thicker components = higher raw material cost)

remember china supplies its mfgs material for well below spot price. try buying neo powder from china. it will cost you 10x what chinese magnet mfgs pay

korea plays the same game

Mercantilism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[mknox]

I wonder sometimes if the (oft-delayed, extremely-complex) X was a "mistake" and if Musk & Co. should have jumped headfirst into the mass market EV race after the initial success of the Model S, say, circa late-2013.

I agree. I think the Model X was supposed to be "easy". Just plop a Crossover / SUV body on to the existing Model S skateboard. Unfortunately complicating things with the Falcon Wing doors, pano windshield and such just consumed engineering cycles and delayed the delivery of the X and by extension the 3. I'm not saying the Model X isn't a fantastic vehicle, but like the Model S is going to be somewhat niche simply due to the high cost. Getting to the Model 3 needs to be a priority.

- - - Updated - - -

But yeah, if you need me to answer that: Tesla has said from day one what the base price would be for a Model 3, and that IS lower than the base price of the Bolt.

Well, when I ordered my Model S pre-production, it was promised as a sub-$50k car. It was for a minute or two...

And while GM has given us some sort of specs for the Bolt (mostly just copying what Tesla said they'd be doing), Tesla is the only company to actually produce a real world 200 mile EV and they've guaranteed the same for the Model 3.

Yes, we have promises. I have no reason to doubt them either, but all I was trying to say is we have an actual car in the Bolt and only speculation and promises with the Model 3.

Tesla has the SuperCharger network, GM does not. Tesla continues to advance AP, GM isn't even in the same ballpark. Tesla does OTA updates, GM not so much. Do I need to go on?

GM (Cadillac) has SuperCruise which seems very similar to Tesla's AP (but sure, Tesla got there first). Tesla does have the Supercharger network, but unfortunately for us in Canada, it came quite late and stations are few and far between. Will it get better? Well, they do promise so if you can get past the ever slipping projections. I think with many more EVs coming to market (a good thing, in my mind) we'll see Level 3 build-out pick up. Tesla kinda had to go the route they did being early to the EV thing and all.

Look, I'm not trying to crap on Tesla. I own one and love it. Their goal of accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles is working judging by the number of new plug-in cars coming to market. To me, the Bolt looks like an outstanding product and I hope it does well in the market. Honestly, if it were available when I bought my Model S I might have bought it instead. The Model S was about double what I'd spent on a new car in the past, but was the only thing that could deal with my (at the time) 100 mile round trip commute and do so all electrically. Kudos to GM for getting a little competitive and bringing such a product to market. When we actually have a Model 3 to see and learn about, I'll judge it then. I'm sure I'll love it too.

 

[flathillll]

I'm thrilled about the Bolt. There is a huge segment of the population that thinks of Tesla as some 'left wing hippie tree hugging subsidy taking' electric vehicle company. But GM? They LOVE GM. Merica. This is awesome. People who scoffed at EVs will start to take them seriously and pay attention. A whole new group of people will be cross-shopping against Tesla Model 3s, thanks to GM and Volt. Good for the planet. We all win.

A little competition never hurt anyone. Yay.

nope Korea wins. GM will go bankrupt again and Korea or China will buy it

if you cant tell I hate GM with a passion ever since they sold Ovonics to Chevron

Mercantilism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

they car was almost 100% engineered and designed in Korea (even the body)



LG supplied an array of new components and systems for the Chevrolet Bolt EV, including:

• Electric Drive Motor
• Power Inverter Module (converts DC power to AC for the drive unit)
• On Board Charger
• Electric Climate Control System Compressor
• Battery Cells and Pack
• High Power Distribution Module (manages the flow of high voltage to various components)
• Battery Heater
• Accessory Power Module (maintains low-voltage power delivery to accessories)
• Power Line Communication Module (manages communication between vehicle and a DC charging station)
• Instrument Cluster
• Infotainment System

 

[jlake02]

Read the entire article. I think it was really well done. Great read!

 

[RobStark]

not likely as you can already buy almost handmade junky hobby grade prismatic cells (used in rc) for $165/kwh wholesale in Chine and they are high power cells (meaning thicker components = higher raw material cost)

remember china supplies its mfgs material for well below spot price. try buying neo powder from china. it will cost you 10x what chinese magnet mfgs pay

korea plays the same game

Mercantilism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Those POS cells are nothing like what GM is putting in their Bolt with warranty and all the implied legal liability.

Those POS cells have almost random performance characteristics not anywhere near their nominal performance characteristics.

Just because China can sell a POS car for $8k does not make it a Tesla Model S or even a Chevy Malibu.