Wonder if something changed over the weekend? I got a call from my manager this weekend to inform me that I am 'essential personnel' (work for a shipping company) and would need to be at work this coming week. Made it sound like there was a lockdown coming, and talking with coworkers, everyone got the one on one call.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Wonder if something changed over the weekend? I got a call from my manager this weekend to inform me that I am 'essential personnel' (work for a shipping company) and would need to be at work this coming week. Made it sound like there was a lockdown coming, and talking with coworkers, everyone got the one on one call.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I’m sure they will remove your disagrees if the new cases pop back up tomorrow. Very important.
LiveLong&Profit
Member
Also: PM made strong appeal/warning re. Easter-vacation Don't travel. Stay at home. No going to the summerhouses. Not even in Denmark. Or else: There may be travel restrictions.
In context, the winters in Denmark are long, cold & dark. Spring is therefore a big thing in Denmark: People go slightly crazy.
And for many people Easter is a 1-1½ weeks vacation - we make plans.
It was widely speculated that the 2 weeks would not be enough so I kind of saw it was coming - but I am still sad about losing Easter.
I think that was yesterday in Texas from the Governor.
Since then, I think Dallas County went on Shelter in Place. That might be a sign that the whole state is on its' way to shelter in place. Kind of sad the governor is so slow though.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
He’s just waiting for things to get hopelessly out of control first. Wants to make sure it looks really awful before acting. Following the leader.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
The talk this morning from the NEJM is about triaging:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005689?query=RP
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2005114?query=RP
So that physicians directly taking care of patients do not have to make these decisions, there is talk of setting up "triage committees" who would be responsible for reviewing risk factors, patient acuity, etc. and deciding how to best allocate resources.
Scary.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005689?query=RP
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb2005114?query=RP
So that physicians directly taking care of patients do not have to make these decisions, there is talk of setting up "triage committees" who would be responsible for reviewing risk factors, patient acuity, etc. and deciding how to best allocate resources.
Scary.
jhm
Well-Known Member
For anyone thinking about projecting death counts into the future, I would encourage you to study this chart.
Note that slope is the log(growthFactor).
Note that the slope flattens out gradually. The big question to wrestle with is how quickly will the curve bend for a particular country.
Note that the US is as of yesterday at about 1.3 deaths per million (DPM). Some scenarios:
Hubei -- So far the US is most closely tracking the performance of Hubei. From the point were the US presently is, it took Hubei 10 days to hit 10 DPM. The curve started to bend as it got around 7 DPM. Ultimate the curve has flattened out to 53 DPM. If the US follows this path, we are looking at about 3,300 deaths by April 1 and ultimate 17,500 deaths by end of April.
Italy -- Suppose the US tracks closer to Italy from this level onward. It took Italy 7 days to go from about 1.2 DPM to 10 DPM, and other 13 day to get to 91 DPM. Italy has not started to bend he curve enough to give us any confidence about ultimate deaths. The current slope is roughly where Hubei was at 9 GPM. Italy could be looking at an ultimate death rate near 500 DPM. Let's apply that to the US. we are looking at 3,300 deaths by March 29, 30,100 deaths by April 11, and 165,500 ultimate deaths in May or later.
One can easily construct other scenario, but I think my Hubei and Italy scenarios span the range from reasonably optimist to reasonably pessimistic for the US. Let's hope Italy can bend the curve this week.
Note that slope is the log(growthFactor).
Note that the slope flattens out gradually. The big question to wrestle with is how quickly will the curve bend for a particular country.
Note that the US is as of yesterday at about 1.3 deaths per million (DPM). Some scenarios:
Hubei -- So far the US is most closely tracking the performance of Hubei. From the point were the US presently is, it took Hubei 10 days to hit 10 DPM. The curve started to bend as it got around 7 DPM. Ultimate the curve has flattened out to 53 DPM. If the US follows this path, we are looking at about 3,300 deaths by April 1 and ultimate 17,500 deaths by end of April.
Italy -- Suppose the US tracks closer to Italy from this level onward. It took Italy 7 days to go from about 1.2 DPM to 10 DPM, and other 13 day to get to 91 DPM. Italy has not started to bend he curve enough to give us any confidence about ultimate deaths. The current slope is roughly where Hubei was at 9 GPM. Italy could be looking at an ultimate death rate near 500 DPM. Let's apply that to the US. we are looking at 3,300 deaths by March 29, 30,100 deaths by April 11, and 165,500 ultimate deaths in May or later.
One can easily construct other scenario, but I think my Hubei and Italy scenarios span the range from reasonably optimist to reasonably pessimistic for the US. Let's hope Italy can bend the curve this week.
I think the point is to have a committee come up with guidelines that the doctors follow, so each individual doctor doesn't feel like they are playing God and deciding who lives and dies. I don't think you understand the mental toll it takes on a doctor to look another human in the eyes and say: "I don't have the resources to treat you, so I have to let you die." There is also the legal protection for that doctor when the family wants to sue because the doctor decided to not put THEIR loved one in the ICU.
They just discontinued all testing yesterday NYS. Said they have no equipment and it will not change anything if patient is positive. It is the same direction: Isolate at home unless you cannot breathe. Then go to hospital.
Not very inspiring.
Where did you see that? Would be very disappointing if true. Are they shutting down all of the drive through testing stations as well? All I am seeing is that they are doing a ton of testing and its still ramping up?
Coronavirus in NY: 20,875 cases confirmed as testing ramps up
I think if I can decide who walks point, who is last line during retreat, who fills the gap in the line I believe I understand the mental toll decisions over life and death can entail. I feel for decision makers as I have been there. Yes, committees and commanders not on the scene can make rules for triage or rules of engagement. Yet the man on the ground will make it regardless of rules made by committees or commanders not present on the front line.
Similar to what happened in NYC. City run hospitals couldn't wade their way through red tape fast enough to order supplies before the supplies became hard to find. https://nypost.com/2020/03/20/city-hall-didnt-order-covid-19-supplies-for-nyc-until-march-6/
I found it interesting and alarming that at last night's WH press conference Trump specifically mentioned that the navy hospital ship was heading for San Francisco instead of Seattle even though Seattle has more deaths currently. He said they expected five times as many cases in San Francisco than in Seattle.
X Fan
Active Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
We really can't track with Italy, no matter how hard we try to screw this up, because the demographics of their cases is so heavily weighted toward the 80+ age group living with immediate family. The median age if Italian CV deaths is 80.2 years and the vast majority live at homeFor anyone thinking about projecting death counts into the future, I would encourage you to study this chart.
Note that slope is the log(growthFactor).
Note that the slope flattens out gradually. The big question to wrestle with is how quickly will the curve bend for a particular country.
Note that the US is as of yesterday at about 1.3 deaths per million (DPM). Some scenarios:
Hubei -- So far the US is most closely tracking the performance of Hubei. From the point were the US presently is, it took Hubei 10 days to hit 10 DPM. The curve started to bend as it got around 7 DPM. Ultimate the curve has flattened out to 53 DPM. If the US follows this path, we are looking at about 3,300 deaths by April 1 and ultimate 17,500 deaths by end of April.
Italy -- Suppose the US tracks closer to Italy from this level onward. It took Italy 7 days to go from about 1.2 DPM to 10 DPM, and other 13 day to get to 91 DPM. Italy has not started to bend he curve enough to give us any confidence about ultimate deaths. The current slope is roughly where Hubei was at 9 GPM. Italy could be looking at an ultimate death rate near 500 DPM. Let's apply that to the US. we are looking at 3,300 deaths by March 29, 30,100 deaths by April 11, and 165,500 ultimate deaths in May or later.
One can easily construct other scenario, but I think my Hubei and Italy scenarios span the range from reasonably optimist to reasonably pessimistic for the US. Let's hope Italy can bend the curve this week.
We have a modestly smaller percentage in that group and they're much more easily isolated here.
Which is what we need to be doing. Testing and isolating those most susceptible to infection. I think we'll quickly realized locking down is counterproductive and we'll begin easing it as soon as late next week.
For anyone thinking about projecting death counts into the future, I would encourage you to study this chart.
Note that slope is the log(growthFactor).
Note that the slope flattens out gradually. The big question to wrestle with is how quickly will the curve bend for a particular country.
Note that the US is as of yesterday at about 1.3 deaths per million (DPM). Some scenarios:
Hubei -- So far the US is most closely tracking the performance of Hubei. From the point were the US presently is, it took Hubei 10 days to hit 10 DPM. The curve started to bend as it got around 7 DPM. Ultimate the curve has flattened out to 53 DPM. If the US follows this path, we are looking at about 3,300 deaths by April 1 and ultimate 17,500 deaths by end of April.
Italy -- Suppose the US tracks closer to Italy from this level onward. It took Italy 7 days to go from about 1.2 DPM to 10 DPM, and other 13 day to get to 91 DPM. Italy has not started to bend he curve enough to give us any confidence about ultimate deaths. The current slope is roughly where Hubei was at 9 GPM. Italy could be looking at an ultimate death rate near 500 DPM. Let's apply that to the US. we are looking at 3,300 deaths by March 29, 30,100 deaths by April 11, and 165,500 ultimate deaths in May or later.
One can easily construct other scenario, but I think my Hubei and Italy scenarios span the range from reasonably optimist to reasonably pessimistic for the US. Let's hope Italy can bend the curve this week.
Great post
But Holy Crap. I'm not sure how many folks understand what Log scale means but that Chart is really shines a light on things.
Another way to put it in perspective is, as bad as it was in China, the chart shows it only hit 5 per 1 Million deaths.
The projections for Italy or Spain could be a 1000 or more per million before it flattens !!
N5329K
Active Member
NY’s steeper curve is also about the incredible job it’s doing in ramping up testing. Per capita, they are number one in the world right now.
Robin
It's attitudes like this that partially got Italy into the mess they are in. With governments swinging back and forth on shutdowns.
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