Coronavirus

[cwerdna]

I posted this in another forum the other day:

-- begin --
Santa Clara County Has Tested Just 647 Patients for COVID-19

In response to San Jose Inside’s demands for more comprehensive testing data, the Santa Clara County Public Health Department finally posted information admitting how little they do know and how few people have been assessed so far for COVID-19.

As of Sunday, the public health lab has tested just 647 patients, according to an FAQ posted online Monday evening. In a phone call Sunday night, as we reported earlier today, county Executive Jeff Smith estimated that the actual number of infected people is somewhere closer to 4,000 or 5,000, although just 321 have tested positive to date.

How many tests private labs have conducted is something of a mystery since they have no obligation to report anything but positive results to county health officials. The county said the dearth of information and lack of widespread testing has hampered its ability to monitor the epidemic, mitigate its spread and inform people about their infection status.
...
The county public health lab can run a maximum of 100 tests a day, officials say, and only use kits from the CDC. The number of actual patients the lab can test is less than the volume of kits because some are used as controls and require multiple samples per person to ensure an accurate diagnosis.

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/home.aspx currently shows that 321, as well.

What a joke! From COVID-19/Coronavirus Real Time Updates With Credible Sources in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres, Santa Clara County (where I am) is the number 2 hot spot in the state and they've only tested 647 people? Our population is over 1.9 million!
-- end --

Right now, the count at Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Public Health Department - County of Santa Clara is at 375 and Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing - Public Health Department - County of Santa Clara (last updated March 23) still says

How many patients have been tested to date in Santa Clara County?

As of March 22, 2020, the Public Health laboratory has tested 1044 samples, for 647 individual patients.

For those not familiar with the area, Santa Clara County, California - Wikipedia contains Silicon Valley and includes cities like San Jose, Palo Alto (where Tesla HQ is), Mountain View (where the Googleplex is), Cupertino (where Apple HQ is), etc. Apple is also scattered throughout Silicon Valley.

 

[SMAlset]

I know people on here have mentioned the movie Contagion. Just saw that the medical expert, Dr. Lipkin, advising them on it has C19.

'Contagion' medical adviser Dr. Ian Lipkin says he has coronavirus

 

[wdolson]

@TheTalkingMule has at least two people who agree with him. These two doctors say the IFR might be as low as 0.06%. For some reason they don't explain how South Korea only caught 9,137 of their 210,000 cases... In fact they don't mention South Korea at all. Strange. I guess it's worth it to get published in the WSJ. We should know if their prediction of only 20,000-40,000 deaths in the US is true in the next few weeks, just in time for Easter.
Opinion | Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

The problem is we don't know for sure how deadly it is. The problem is that it appears for about 80% of the population is isn't deadly, but for another 20% it can be very serious. Maybe that percentage is 90/10, but to try to go back to normal now would be to do an uncontrolled experiment on the human race. That's insanely reckless.

 

[Doggydogworld]

@TheTalkingMule has at least two people who agree with him. These two doctors say the IFR might be as low as 0.06%. For some reason they don't explain how South Korea only caught 9,137 of their 210,000 cases... In fact they don't mention South Korea at all. Strange. I guess it's worth it to get published in the WSJ. We should know if their prediction of only 20,000-40,000 deaths in the US is true in the next few weeks, just in time for Easter.
Opinion | Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

Marc Lipsitch is taking on the "fatality rate might be no worse than seasonal flu" crowd in STAT and the Washington Post. He also went head-to-head with Ioannidis on CNN. Harvard vs. Stanford smackdown, ha! Instead of glazing people's eyes over with CFRs and confidence intervals, he simply says seasonal flu does not overwhelm hospital systems the way this virus already has done and will continue to do. It's clearly a different beast. He agrees we don't have enough data to make perfect plans, but we have enough to know we must stop the spread immediately. This will buy time to learn more and make long term plans.

It's true we are making big decisions without great data. But as the old Rush song says: "If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice". Doing nothing until we have great data irrevocably locks us into the "let it burn" path. There is no turning back. Locking down for 4-6 weeks is not irrevocable. It buys us time to get better data. We can always change course later if we decide to let it burn.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Actually, that's a GREAT question.

It depends upon the virus and the immune status of the person. We don't know enough about this virus to determine if there is a carrier sub-group, but I will point out some viruses that are notorious for the immune system being unable to fully clear, and leave the person as a carrier or continually infected:
HIV
Hep C
Herpes I and II

There is some evidence, although anecdotal, that not all people that get SARS-CoV-2 clear it. There are some reports of "super-spreaders" as the media has labeled them.

We need more info to make a proper determination for this virus, and virologists will be studying SARS-CoV-2 for years.

I have personal experience with Hep C, so I'm going to take your point that it's possible, but not certain. Furthermore, all 3 are transmitted by intimately close transmission of bodily fluids, not air-borne.

Anyway, have the other [known] strains of coronavirus exhibited this same characteristic of remaining in the body long past the infection stage? I ask, because wouldn't the vulnerable be better protected by only interacting with people who can't be carriers (e.g. the folks who have the antibodies already)? I know of some elderly couples who go out to do their own grocery shopping regularly (because their children don't live with them and must shelter-at-home), and if someone else could do it for them, that would minimize their exposure even further. Since the grocery stores aren't hospital grade sanitary.

Edit: waiting for year-long studies to be done before acting isn't a solution in these cases.

 

[SMAlset]

I posted this in another forum the other day:

-- begin --
Santa Clara County Has Tested Just 647 Patients for COVID-19

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/home.aspx currently shows that 321, as well.

What a joke! From COVID-19/Coronavirus Real Time Updates With Credible Sources in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres, Santa Clara County (where I am) is the number 2 hot spot in the state and they've only tested 647 people? Our population is over 1.9 million!
-- end --

Right now, the count at Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Public Health Department - County of Santa Clara is at 375 and Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing - Public Health Department - County of Santa Clara (last updated March 23) still says



For those not familiar with the area, Santa Clara County, California - Wikipedia contains Silicon Valley and includes cities like San Jose, Palo Alto (where Tesla HQ is), Mountain View (where the Googleplex is), Cupertino (where Apple HQ is), etc. Apple is also scattered throughout Silicon Valley.

I think the 54 new cases today has them alarmed. Hospitals in Santa Clara County are now preparing for a large influx soon. Which also makes sense since the SF Bay area only shutdown 2 weeks ago so within the expected timeframe for symptoms to appear. Not sure if I can find that article on the hospitals but the new cases were indicated in the article in my post above. The linked text below to a NBCNews story says the County can only run 100 tests a day without a commercial labs help. I think the 54 increase has moved us to why we have “hotbed” status which you asked about.

• Santa Clara County reported three more coronavirus-related deaths, bringing the county's death toll to 16. The county also reported 54 new cases for county total of 375.

 

[cwerdna]

I think the 54 new cases today has them alarmed. Hospitals in Santa Clara County are now preparing for a large influx soon. Not sure if I can find that article on the hospitals but the new cases were indicated in the article in my post above. The linked text below to a NBCNews story says the County can only run 100 tests a day without a commercial labs help.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing - Public Health Department - County of Santa Clara also confirms the 100 tests/day in that lab:

The Testing Situation in Santa Clara County

In Santa Clara County, we obtained CDC approval to perform the first COVID-19 test in our public health laboratory on February 26, 2020. The role of the local public health laboratory is limited: it serves as a specialty reference laboratory offering testing for emerging infections such as COVID-19 while other laboratory sectors (commercial and academic) come on-line to test for those new diseases. For example, at the beginning of the West Nile Virus epidemic, only public health laboratories were able to test for West Nile Virus, but West Nile Virus testing was very soon offered widely in the commercial sector. In the United States, unlike in some other countries, high volume testing is done exclusively by commercial private sector labs.

The County’s public health laboratory is able to run a maximum of 100 tests per day. We receive all of our test kits from the CDC. The number of patients we can test is much less than the number of test kits. This is because some tests are used as controls and multiple samples may be submitted for each patient to ensure accurate results. Our local public health laboratory, like all public health laboratories, functions as a specialty reference laboratory and as a bridge laboratory to enable testing to occur while other laboratory sectors come on-line. The lab is not structured, physically and otherwise, to scale to commercial-volume testing. As a result, the current focus of the public health laboratory testing is to ensure that hospitalized patients get tested, as well as people who live or work in high risk settings such as long-term care facilities, healthcare professionals, and first responders, while we continue waiting for large-scale testing capacity to come on line through the commercial labs.

 

[linux-works]

But instead...Blah...Blah...Trump....Blah...everyone dying....Blah....Blah....need someone to blame....Blah

wise man once said "its better to be thought a fool than to speak up and remove all doubt"

 

[linux-works]

hey, foverm, you wanna keep thumbing me down like the passive aggressive guy that you seem to be?

all the thumbs down in the world won't change the fact that your hero is actively trying to kill his fellow americans.

the truth hurts. but give the thumbs down a rest. you're not proving a thing by being in total denial of this situation. fingers in ears with LALALALALA isn't helping, mate. really not helping at all.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Some here will find this COVID epidemic calculator interesting to play with:
Epidemic Calculator

 

[cwerdna]

Yeah, I don't understand WTF is wrong with California; it's disgraceful.

indeed. I didn't realize the testing situation was so disgraceful here in Santa Clara County until I came across a news story recently. Take a look at the numbers I posted at Coronavirus. This is for the center of the tech industry in CA with over 1.9 million people!

 

[wdolson]

Some here will find this COVID epidemic calculator interesting to play with:
Epidemic Calculator

Interesting tool, but they left out one factor, hospital capacity. If hospital capacity gets exceeded, then a higher percentage of those hospitalized will die. That's happened in some parts of Italy, it's probably happened in Iran, and it could happen in parts of the US. New York is creaking under the load now.

 

[cusetownusa]

I posted this in another forum the other day:

-- begin --
Santa Clara County Has Tested Just 647 Patients for COVID-19

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/home.aspx currently shows that 321, as well.

What a joke! From COVID-19/Coronavirus Real Time Updates With Credible Sources in US and Canada | 1Point3Acres, Santa Clara County (where I am) is the number 2 hot spot in the state and they've only tested 647 people? Our population is over 1.9 million!
-- end --

Right now, the count at Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Public Health Department - County of Santa Clara is at 375 and Coronavirus (COVID-19) Testing - Public Health Department - County of Santa Clara (last updated March 23) still says



For those not familiar with the area, Santa Clara County, California - Wikipedia contains Silicon Valley and includes cities like San Jose, Palo Alto (where Tesla HQ is), Mountain View (where the Googleplex is), Cupertino (where Apple HQ is), etc. Apple is also scattered throughout Silicon Valley.

That is extremely low testing. In my County (in NYS), of under 500,000 people, they have already done over 2000 tests. So far there have been only 70 confirmed cases but is expected to go up as testing ramps up.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Probably a stupid question, but if the flu can come back every year in mutated shape, killing hundreds of thousands of people, how is ‘herd immunity’ going to prevent mutations of covid-19 killing millions every year? Does it not mutate like the flu does?

 

[Compton]

Probably a stupid question: but if the flu can come back every year in mutated shape, killing hundreds of thousands of people, how is ‘herd immunity’ going to prevent mutations of covid-19 killing millions every year? Does it not mutate like the flu does?

Corona has RNA proofreading, influenza doesn't. Thus Influenza mutates significantly faster.

 

[FrankSG]

Malaysia today announced an extension of its shutdown until the 14th of April.

Not sure if it's necessary, because infection rate is pretty stable. It's been stable between 100-200 per day.

Better safe than sorry I guess.

 

[Lessmog]

Someone who has recovered from the virus (with or without symptoms) will not transmit it to others, because he/she is no longer shedding it. His/her immune system has defeated it, which is the same thing that happens after successful vaccination.

Now, I'm not a doctor (either) -- but it is absolutely clear to me that you are very busy shedding dangerous nonsense here. Please stop.

IF there is ANY support for that claim of immunity you must share it. Certainly the several actual medical professionals who post here would have told us about it long ago. And if you happened to have access to such proof, surely you would have already provided it. No?

So, once again: CUT OUT THE QUACKERY! Please, for the sake of humanity.

 

[EinSV]

That is extremely low testing. In my County (in NYS), of under 500,000 people, they have already done over 2000 tests. So far there have been only 70 confirmed cases but is expected to go up as testing ramps up.

As some of the articles mention, the Santa Clara County Health Department's testing is only the tip of the iceberg. Most of the testing is being done by other entities or private labs. For example, Kaiser -- one of the county's largest insurers and medical providers -- does its own testing. Stanford has its own FDA-approved test and I've been told they started running ~300 tests a day last week. Stanford and Kaiser both offer drive-through testing. Stanford, Kaiser hold drive-thru coronavirus testing, but you can't just head over there

So the health department's testing is only a fraction of all the tests being done in the county. Unfortunately, since the county only requires positive tests from outside labs to be reported, to my knowledge there is no way of knowing how many tests have been conducted county-wide, which is pretty ridiculous. AFAIK most are following the restrictive CDC guidelines on who should be tested, which means the vast majority of positive cases will get missed.

 

[jerry33]

do they really enjoy a high death count or are they truly as dumb as a bag of hammers?

This one. Although you might be doing hammers an injustice.

 

[jerry33]

Employers, generally speaking, value and care about their employees. There are surely plenty of exceptions to this, which is why we need broader societal and government support, but I think it's unfair to paint employers with such a terribly negative brush.

Small employers usually have a personal relationship with their employees (with maybe the exception of some fast food franchises). Large employers not so much. With landlords, it pretty much depends on what rules they have to live under, and after you've had a couple of houses trashed by tenants or squatters that you can't evict, you tend to be somewhat paranoid. So there are issues on both the landlord and tenant side. Neither can claim any haloes although the vast majority are just people doing their best.