Coronavirus

[TheTalkingMule]

I suspect California and Tesla will start openings things back up on May 1st. Not everything of course - but jobs that cannot be worked from home (like manufacturing) will go back under close watch.

Teslas software engineers in Palo Alto could still work from home.

California is trending pretty decently in terms of containment.

Pennsylvania is just barely ramping cases/deaths and already businesses are about ready to riot. Fracking was given an exception(obviously!) but small business owners are sitting at home furious. Whether they're right of wrong, something is gonna give. Maybe when deaths pop exponentially next week it'll cool them down but I doubt it.

The realtor lobby has the state legislature running around to get them declared exempted, so are developers/contractors.

My guess is that nonretail businesses like manufacturing, building, etc will be allowed to start back the Tues/Wed after Easter. Wouldn't surprise me to see schools in some districts given the option then as well. Though schools is probably more like the following week because you know.....the children. Never mind they're in nearly zero danger.

 

[EVNow]

I think that is far too optimistic, but I think your view is likely what is currently priced into the market and TSLA stock. Hence, I am not buying (but probably will if it drops into the mid-300s again, which I think is likely due to macro issues - not issues with TSLA itself). I don't see any way we won't keep this going in California until mid-May. The thing is, the case load has to be reduced to a level where an extremely aggressive contact and trace strategy can KEEP it at a low level. In addition, all of that infrastructure has to be put in place (and I see little evidence of that right now as we are still in "crisis" mode. There is no way we'll be at the caseload level we'll need to be in terms of new cases, by May 1st, I don't think.

I doubt any state is going to do actual contact/trace after the current lockdown ends. States simply don't have enough resources for that - and congress is only interested in bailing out their corporate donors.

ps : I do think the market expects everything to be back to normal in May and don't expect a second wave. But if & when the second (bigger?) wave happens the market will really react badly. As is, when Q1 & Q2 earnings start coming market probably will react badly.

 

[MXLRplus]

To make an observational commentary on what is going on in our suburban area of California April 2nd:

• There are 3 houses of worship, two seat over 500, >10 acres each. All have been closed down for awhile now.
• All the schools are closed.
• Public parks are yellow taped if possible.
• All the fast food and 1/2 restaurants are open, as well as all groceries and liquor stores.
• Lawn care workers are everywhere.
• Barbers are closed, as are beauty salons.
• A large Decorator Tile mfr is in full operation, perhaps 200 employees.
• 3 smaller construction companies are in full operation.
• A import/export company who deals with decorative rock, like aquarium size, is moving at least a dozen tractor trailers a day, international shipments. I suspect they are smugglers.
• The city employees are meter reading and doing maintenance. The police are bored.
• My dermatologist is open (suspicious growth is benign).
• My lawyer is staying open, but the courts for the most part are closed.

But traffic is down at least 50%.

Will that be enough to completely stop the spread? No.

 

[SageBrush]

What difference does that make?

A lot.
S. Korea started out with worse environmental variables, had much less time to prepare, had more traffic from China, was the beneficiary of a christian cult that infected the country ... , and is doing a magnitude better.

tump apologists are stooooopid

 

[EVNow]

Though schools is likely more like the following week because you know.....the children. Never mind they're in nearly zero danger.

But teachers/staff and parents are not in "near zero danger".

Currently my biggest worry is schools restarting. When the kids are back in school - we have zero control over not getting infected.

 

[MXLRplus]

But teachers/staff and parents are not in "near zero danger".

Currently my biggest worry is schools restarting. When the kids are back in school - we have zero control over not getting infected.

I would not worry about that. The teachers get paid whether or not school is open. They have ended the school year here. They have no idea what to do about graduation requirements yet for K-12. College commencements are cancelled. You still owe tuition.

 

[SageBrush]

Though schools is probably more like the following week because you know.....the children. Never mind they're in nearly zero danger.

Are you planning to mass quarantine them from the rest of the community ?

 

[bkp_duke]

Regarding the use of HCQ, we continue to see reports from physicians actually prescribing the product that the results are very positive. Specifically, if HCQ (particularly in combination with zinc and azithromycin) is given to CV19 patients early, it noticeably reduces the number of patients to ultimately require hospitalization.

Here's the latest article:
Italy Finally Starts Mass Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine

In the article, Dr. Pier Luigi Bartoletti, Deputy National Secretary of the Italian Federation of General Practitioners, explains that every single person with Covid-19 that has early signs, like a cough or a fever for example, is now being treated with the anti-malaria drug.

"The results that we are starting to accumulate suggest that hydroxychloroquine administered early, gives the possibility of avoiding this evolution in a majority of patients and is also helping us to prevent hospitals from filling up.”

Debate Ends Over Chloroquine as France Officially Sanctions Usage

"Days after beginning a large scale double blinded trial, the so called gold standard, France has now reached the conclusion chloroquine is recommended to treat corona."

FDA
As you also know, last week the FDA in the United States granted emergency authority to use chloroquine and HCQ that are in the national stockpile for the treatment of covid-19.

Let's keep politics out of this discussion, however. I may make a separate post about the politics of the HCQ controversy at some point, but in our discussions of whether the drug works or not for covid-19, politics has no place.

I respect your qualifications as a physician and researcher, and I hope you respect just as keenly the qualifications of the French and Italian medical authorities and the decision of the FDA doctors and researchers to make this drug available in the U.S. for treating covid-19

What we need is an honest discussion of HCQ with data points. @bkp_duke if you have previously posted links to studies that dispute the value of HCQ , please repost because none of us has the time to go through all your old posts with the hopes of finding one. We need links to results or real world observations, not your personal summaries. Thank you.

I swear this feels like "let me google that for you" (I literally did a search on this thread with chloroquine and my username):
Coronavirus
Coronavirus
Coronavirus
Coronavirus
Coronavirus
Coronavirus
Coronavirus

Coronavirus (this one is the best breakdown of why the French data was severely flawed - and is written for the lay person to understand)

The FDA pushed through approval on purely political grounds, not because there is data to support HCQ as an on-label usage for COVID-19 (there isn't - on-label usage requires RIGOROUS testing and NONE of the studies to date come close to that high bar). You even have the head of the US Gov response to this, Dr. Fauci, who went on record against the president about HCQ (and rightfully so).

Basically, the HCQ stuff has turned into an echo chamber with the same two poorly done studies being repeated over and over (the Chinese data - which they have REFUSED to release - giant red flag, and the French data - which is a poorly done "study" and has deep flaws). Everyone is CRAVING something that will work so badly that they keep overlooking that the devil is in the details and HCQ data really is pretty poor.

For hospitalized patients, I can support the usage because they are going to be on cardiac monitoring and the deadly cardiac side effects of HCQ can be mitigated, but prescribing this in the general public where you cannot do close cardiac monitoring will cause preventable deaths. Deaths that at this time cannot be justified as balancing out because "we know" it saves lives (the data to support the conclusion just doesn't exist).

It's like Russiagate all over again - media has blown it WAY out of proportion, and the physicians that are pimping this I have no professional respect for - it is reckless to come to treatment decisions based upon the paucity of data to date. Not for something with known significant side effects. It's almost like they are media divas and want attention. When you go and look at the ACTUAL data (not the news reports and their interpretation - but the ACTUAL PAPERS), there is only anecdotal data, some test-tube studies, and some VERY small case series reported to date. The randomized control trials are in process now, those will be the gold standard to not only tell us if HCQ helps, but by how much it helps (or hurts).

 

[SageBrush]

I would like to change my graphs to daily new covid deaths per country.
Any leads to raw data would be most appreciated

addendum:
This website looks pretty good and easy to use if it is accurate.

 

[traxila]

So I have read a lot about how S Korea is a great example of doing it right. Especially compared to the United States.
S Korea is a little larger in area than Indiana and smaller than Kentucky. That is, it is about 1/100 the size of the US.
There are 28 airports in S Korea. The US has 149 international airports. S Korea has 2.
I think it is easier for S Korea to control the Coronavirus.

Yes. Especially when they actually HAVE as many COVID TESTs as they need and when ANYONE can get a COVID test on DEMAND.

Just like the forewarned and great and technologically SUPER ADVANCED USA which has been producing and distributing ENDLESS amounts of instant COVID tests around the nation and testing - oh, wait a minute. Ummmmmm, back that up a sec, uh ok.

Yes! S. Korea is having such an easy time of it. They are lucky because ummm they are small. Yes.

 

[dfwatt]

Fear mongering and sensationalism, what the news does best. The numbers in Santa Clara are in decline last time I checked. Yes it is good to prepare for surge, but that won't happen until the stay at home orders are relaxed.

The surge almost by epidemiologic definition, happens roughly four to six weeks after strict social isolation procedures are instituted. Prior to that infection is spreading under-the-radar and building momentum. It takes 4 to 6 weeks for that to manifest itself fully.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Yes. Especially when they actually HAVE as many COVID TESTs as they need and when ANYONE can get a COVID test on DEMAND.

I believe it costs $140 to get a test on demand but you get a refund if test positive.
This is a good interview with an infectious disease expert in Korea. He talks about testing.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Though schools is probably more like the following week because you know.....the children. Never mind they're in nearly zero danger.

I think schools will reopen then too, but it's not because people are worried about them catching it--they need the parents to go back to work, and no matter how many online classes they try, it's just not the same as corralling the ankle-biters in one room.

However, it'll be a mistake. Not because of the kids' health, but the fact that the kids act as basically the fleas during the black death. It'll cause a very quick resurgence of the virus in the parents, and the parents will spread it to their coworkers/churchmates/bus mates/whatever.

 

[SDRick]

Effective Public health can be S. Korea level ... or it can be trumper level. Will the US repeat its foolishness and then choose another extended lockdown ? Will it repeat its foolishness and then decide to let the virus run wild ?

I have no idea.

S. Korea has about 100 new cases a day per 50M population.

I'm surprised you say you "have no idea". I think you have lots of ideas and opinions.

I mentioned that I thought your estimate of deaths in the United States through July of 150,000 +- was an unfortunate number but reasonable.

Are you of the opinion that we will not be ramping up or improving our response (greater testing, more masks, protective gear, beds, ventilators etc.)?

Even if we only maintain our current response through the end of this year, wouldn't that put you in the under 0.1% total US deaths for 2020 camp?


.

 

[SMAlset]

I’m glad we are taking the spread and curbing it seriously in Calif and good to see the Gov. doing something to help small businesses. Not sure in the long run how much good it will do given the sporadic nationwide resistance to comply however. Also have to wonder about certain companies never mentioned in any “essential work” categories thinking they are exempt.

Applaud Ohio for taking action. Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost sends cease-and-desist letter to Hobby Lobby, which re-opened stores amid coronavirus restrictions

 

[Daniel in SD]

Are there any members that can give any insight on what's going on in Sweden?
Are they trying to be the control group for a massive global experiment?

 

[bkp_duke]

i just read an article about the hospitals in my area. They are losing millions and are furloughing some employees. Wonder if this will be a common issues for hospitals that took early initiatives to free up bed space but haven’t actually been hit with many Covid19 patients, at least not yet.

Hospitals make more money per patient with elective procedures than they do on critical care. That's the reason for the large drop in revenue.

 

[Papafox]

I swear this feels like "let me google that for you" (I literally did a search on this thread with chloroquine and my username):
Coronavirus
Coronavirus
Coronavirus
Coronavirus
Coronavirus
Coronavirus
Coronavirus

Coronavirus (this one is the best breakdown of why the French data was severely flawed - and is written for the lay person to understand)

The FDA pushed through approval on purely political grounds, not because there is data to support HCQ as an on-label usage for COVID-19 (there isn't - on-label usage requires RIGOROUS testing and NONE of the studies to date come close to that high bar). You even have the head of the US Gov response to this, Dr. Fauci, who went on record against the president about HCQ (and rightfully so).

Basically, the HCQ stuff has turned into an echo chamber with the same two poorly done studies being repeated over and over (the Chinese data - which they have REFUSED to release - giant red flag, and the French data - which is a poorly done "study" and has deep flaws). Everyone is CRAVING something that will work so badly that they keep overlooking that the devil is in the details and HCQ data really is pretty poor.

For hospitalized patients, I can support the usage because they are going to be on cardiac monitoring and the deadly cardiac side effects of HCQ can be mitigated, but prescribing this in the general public where you cannot do close cardiac monitoring will cause preventable deaths. Deaths that at this time cannot be justified as balancing out because "we know" it saves lives (the data to support the conclusion just doesn't exist).

It's like Russiagate all over again - media has blown it WAY out of proportion, and the physicians that are pimping this I have no professional respect for - it is reckless to come to treatment decisions based upon the paucity of data to date. Not for something with known significant side effects. It's almost like they are media divas and want attention. When you go and look at the ACTUAL data (not the news reports and their interpretation - but the ACTUAL PAPERS), there is only anecdotal data, some test-tube studies, and some VERY small case series reported to date. The randomized control trials are in process now, those will be the gold standard to not only tell us if HCQ helps, but by how much it helps (or hurts).

@bkp_duke , thanks for posting the links. I will wade into them.

Looking at the first link, though, there are numerous studies supporting the use of HCQ in CV19. It certainly isn't a one-sided argument.

Further, consider why the French discontinued their double-blind test of HCQ and Arithromycin and then the government approved the use of the drugs for CV19 treatment. The reason a study is discontinued like this and then a government rapidly approves the use of the drug(s) is because the results were so overwhelmingly in favor of using the drugs that it would be unethical to continue the study with a control group not receiving the benefit of the drug.

I'm dismayed to see you jump back into political arguments when this discussion needs to be kept on a higher plane. If you are indeed a man of science, you will entertain some doubts of your position, just as I am willing to do with my position. In fact, if you could provide me with data that strongly contradicts my position that HCQ is an effective treatment of CV19 if administered early and in the right combination with other drugs, then you would do me a favor because I don't want to promote a solution which is baseless.

So let's continue the discussion, but without the political bias thrown in. I don't give a rat's ass who is in favor of this treatment and who opposes it. You shouldn't either.

 

[jhm]

Sean Wagner said: ↑
The last lockdown paces the nation. This is not the time for "feral" government.

I can try. So many variables.
It presupposes a population still widely susceptile to the disease.
And it also presupposes that somewhat effective measures on the individual level are possible and widely followed to manage the contagion's progression.
It then becomes a question of exponential spread, susceptibility, connections, and synchronicity.

So it comes down to drying out the reservoirs of virus by individual action. As we can presently see, a high or low number of infected people represents just two to three weeks' movement along the time axis of an exponential curve.

"Disconnecting" an entire US state the way Wuhan was temporarily cut off from the rest of China seems very much a stretch to me. Then let's posit a scenario where the state farthest along in "drying out" the virus sits next to the state with the lowest curbs on transmission. How porous is the border, and how transmissible the rule sets people adhere to?

The fastest way to break the progression while incurring the smallest amount of disruption is for the entire country to spend something like three [that's a placeholder] simultaneous weeks of strict lockdown together.

It's also the best motivator for doing it right, I think - being in it together.

Makes sense. The forest fire analogy may be helpful. Sparks keep being thrown off from the latest hotspots. If you can control the fire everywhere, you can stop the sparks. Some of the laggards in shutting down can become those new hotspots that keeps the whole country at risk.

 

[bkp_duke]

@bkp_duke , thanks for posting the links. I will wade into them.

Looking at the first link, though, there are numerous studies supporting the use of HCQ in CV19. It certainly isn't a one-sided argument.

Read the details in my long summary post (2nd link IIRC). The only studies that make treatment recommendations are very poorly done.

There is even commentary there by an Infectious Disease Doc / Epidemiologist that basically says the scientific community view them as poorly done trials and suspect because the Chinese won't release their data.