Coronavirus

[bkp_duke]

@bkp_duke

So let's continue the discussion, but without the political bias thrown in. I don't give a rat's ass who is in favor of this treatment and who opposes it. You shouldn't either.

I didn't get into political bias, I used it as an EXAMPLE of what the current talk about HCQ is like (a media echo chamber that blows everything out of proportion).

I've presented the data of the studies, I've SHOWN that HCQ is NOT a mild drug but has significant side effects, and that must be taken into consideration for anyone that prescribes it (we have reported deaths already).

Only a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) will sort these questions out. Nothing to date is close to a RCT. Everything else reported to date is not powered scientifically to answer the question, and literally is anecdotal and filled with reporting bias (and a large degree of selection bias).

 

[MXLRplus]

But teachers/staff and parents are not in "near zero danger".

Currently my biggest worry is schools restarting. When the kids are back in school - we have zero control over not getting infected.

Sorry, I had to check to make sure it was not an April's Fool prank. It's not.

" Riverside County Public Health Officer Dr. Cameron Kaiser, that school building closures will be extended to June 19, 2020 due to the safety concerns surrounding coronavirus (COVID-19). "

Also: Public schools expected to remain closed for the rest of the academic year, Newsom says

So it will restart in the fall. There are no provisions like South Korea has for daycare. So many people with kids will be off work for months.

Expect a sharp increase in property crime in some areas. We are already seeing it here.

 

[Feathermerchan]

To the commenters regarding S Korea. It is a lot easier to control 2 airports and a small border than 149 airports and a huge border (that no one much seems to care about). It is also much easier to track a population that is in a small area and can therefore see the effects of the pandemic. (think cruise ship). I'm not saying that we were prepared.
Part of the problem with the US is that it is so big and relatively sparsely populated. The size alone meant/means that there is a wide variation in number and severity of cases. Not to mention our great cultural differences. We have more cultural diversity than anywhere I can think of.

 

[jhm]

I’m glad we are taking the spread and curbing it seriously in Calif and good to see the Gov. doing something to help small businesses. Not sure in the long run how much good it will do given the sporadic nationwide resistance to comply however. Also have to wonder about certain companies never mentioned in any “essential work” categories thinking they are exempt.

Applaud Ohio for taking action. Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost sends cease-and-desist letter to Hobby Lobby, which re-opened stores amid coronavirus restrictions

To be fair, to some of us macramé supplies are essential.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Part of the problem with the US is that it is so big and relatively sparsely populated.

That's why there's no problem in NYC, because it's small and densely populated?
I guess it must be the cultural diversity that's the problem. That makes sense...

 

[dfwatt]

To the commenters regarding S Korea. It is a lot easier to control 2 airports and a small border than 149 airports and a huge border (that no one much seems to care about). It is also much easier to track a population that is in a small area and can therefore see the effects of the pandemic. (think cruise ship). I'm not saying that we were prepared.
Part of the problem with the US is that it is so big and relatively sparsely populated. The size alone meant/means that there is a wide variation in number and severity of cases. Not to mention our great cultural differences. We have more cultural diversity than anywhere I can think of.

And more politically motivated anti-science BS dispensaries than any other country too!

 

[Papafox]

I didn't get into political bias, I used it as an EXAMPLE of what the current talk about HCQ is like (a media echo chamber that blows everything out of proportion).

I've presented the data of the studies, I've SHOWN that HCQ is NOT a mild drug but has significant side effects, and that must be taken into consideration for anyone that prescribes it (we have reported deaths already).

Only a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) will sort these questions out. Nothing to date is close to a RCT. Everything else reported to date is not powered scientifically to answer the question, and literally is anecdotal and filled with reporting bias (and a large degree of selection bias).

Your primary concern seems to be the quality of the studies done so far, and that's reasonable. It's also reasonable to assume that if a controlled study is discontinued after just a few days and the government of that country then quickly approves the use of that drug for that purpose, there's overwhelming evidence within the study that it is unethical to continue it and continue depriving the control group from the benefits of the drug. We may not see a long-term study with the right parameters emerge because of pressure to discontinue a study where the drug in question shows strong value for treatment. We might see a study eventually come out that shows that HCQ is not an effective treatment when given to patients who are already in serious condition. Even the proponents of HCQ are not advocating that use. Perhaps another anti-viral such as Remdesivir would be more effective in severe cases, let's hope so.

In the meantime, I will continue my research and sharing articles I think have value. It would be a huge shame if HCQ, given early in the disease's progression, is not used aggressively now if it is later proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that it is effective. As for the risks of HCQ, I suggest that Dr. Zelenko used a reasonable dividing line: young people (under 60) with no underlying health issues and no sign of shortage of breath) hold off on using the drug, but other patients should take it. Although powerful drugs pose risks to the people taking them, it looks so far like the risks of the disease are far greater than the risks of the treatment. Further, if you step back and look at the risks to society of this person with CV19 not being cured by the fastest possible method, you would see that the rewards for using this drug greatly outweigh the risks, at least with the evidence I've seen so far.

 

[deonb]

Are there any members that can give any insight on what's going on in Sweden?
Are they trying to be the control group for a massive global experiment?

It's what's known as the "Leeroy Jenkins" approach.

 

[jerry33]

Okay guys, I need some help here. My X is in getting PPF, but not tint because the tint person now has a fever (don't know if it's the virus or not). He hasn't come to the shop this week, but there's a good chance he's infected the shop last week. When I took the car in I wore a mask and disinfected myself before getting back in the second car to go home, so I'm sure I'm okay now. I need a plan to pick up the car. My current thought is:
1. Don't go in the building.
2. Spray/wipe don the touch screen, seat and steering wheel.
3. Turn on bio defense and let it run for several minutes before getting in.
4. Sanitize myself during and after all the previous procedures.

Anything I've missed?

 

[Doggydogworld]

San Miguel County county-wide preliminary testing update shows more than 98% are negative for CV antibodies so far. Less than 1% are positive. The rest are technically negative but with a small, under-threshold positive reading.

Is this test accurate enough for these results to have any useful meaning?

FWIW, a separate PCR testing effort of 100 people with (presumably mild) symptoms found 3 positives. Two other positive cases have surfaced through normal diagnostic testing. San Miguel county has ~8000 people and is home to Telluride Ski Resort which gets visitors from all over.

Anything I've missed?

Hazmat suit?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Okay guys, I need some help here. My X is in getting PPF, but not tint because the tint person now has a fever (don't know if it's the virus or not). He hasn't come to the shop this week, but there's a good chance he's infected the shop last week. When I took the car in I wore a mask and disinfected myself before getting back in the second car to go home, so I'm sure I'm okay now. I need a plan to pick up the car. My current thought is:
1. Don't go in the building.
2. Spray/wipe don the touch screen, seat and steering wheel.
3. Turn on bio defense and let it run for several minutes before getting in.
4. Sanitize myself during and after all the previous procedures.

Anything I've missed?

Why not have them leave it in the sun for three days?

 

[jerry33]

Why not have them leave it in the sun for three days?

Even though it's Texas, it hasn't been that sunny lately.

 

[bkp_duke]

It's also reasonable to assume that if a controlled study is discontinued after just a few days and the government of that country then quickly approves the use of that drug for that purpose, there's overwhelming evidence within the study that it is unethical to continue it and continue depriving the control group from the benefits of the drug.

ZERO studies to date fit this criteria. ZERO. Governments are approving use of this medication out of fear, not out of any reasonable basis of scientific evidence. It would be clear to you this is the case if you actually read the posts you asked me to link where other scientists express great doubt about the effectiveness of HCQ and the LACK OF DATA. But apparently you didn't, and just want to work from a standpoint of hope and continue to post scientific "noise".

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

My guess is that nonretail businesses like manufacturing, building, etc will be allowed to start back the Tues/Wed after Easter. Wouldn't surprise me to see schools in some districts given the option then as well. Though schools is probably more like the following week because you know.....the children. Never mind they're in nearly zero danger.

Even in Pennsylvania, I really doubt this will be happening. Definitely say goodbye to school for this year. I guess you haven't noticed Pennsylvania's 20% positive rate?

They're ramping quickly unfortunately. This is one of those states (the 48 states other than NY and NJ) that Trump was pointing at in the chart on Monday as being "very low" due to them being so "firm." I guess he didn't realize that if you zoom in on them, they look about the same (maybe somewhat lower exponential constant) as NY and NJ did a couple weeks ago.

We'll know more in about 3-4 more days about how bad, precisely, it's going to get.

I doubt any state is going to do actual contact/trace after the current lockdown ends. States simply don't have enough resources for that - and congress is only interested in bailing out their corporate donors.

ps : I do think the market expects everything to be back to normal in May and don't expect a second wave. But if & when the second (bigger?) wave happens the market will really react badly. As is, when Q1 & Q2 earnings start coming market probably will react badly.

Hmm. I guess this explains the market's general buoyancy. I think the market will be very sad when May gets closer. This first wave isn't even going to be over until mid-May at the earliest. This is what happens when you wait way too long, as you know.

I do think the second wave is totally avoidable. Haven't heard much serious talk at the highest level of government about it, though there are many experts out there who have all the answers and know what we need to do.

I guess I should have bought Tesla during the day today, though. I actually hadn't noticed they fell so much today...should have had some orders in! Always be trading, or something.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Even though it's Texas, it hasn't been that sunny lately.

There's still a lot of UV light even when the sun isn't shining. Viruses don't last long outside a host, I would use time as my primary disinfectant.

 

[bkp_duke]

Back to the actual science, my wife (a veternarian) sent this to me. The vet world is all up in a tizzy b/c Coronaviruses are well known to them in pets.

Susceptibility of ferrets, cats, dogs, and different domestic animals to SARS-coronavirus-2
Susceptibility of ferrets, cats, dogs, and different domestic animals to SARS-coronavirus-2

Usually caveats apply - this is not yet peer reviewed, and it from a small sample size of each grouping of animal, and some of it is test-tube data (in vitro). It's from a single site in China as well, and has not been duplicated by other labs.

Basically, none of these animals get sick from the virus (i.e. they are carriers only). Dogs, pigs, chickens, and ducks do NOT act as good carriers (with poor replication of the virus). Cats and ferrets are good carriers, with cats transmitting the virus from cat to cat via respiratory droplets.

Glad we don't have any cats and are a dog household.


Nothing practical can be drawn from this paper, I just thought it was interesting and demonstrates different animal resevoirs for SARS-CoV-2

 

[Daniel in SD]

San Miguel County county-wide preliminary testing update shows more than 98% are negative for CV antibodies so far. Less than 1% are positive. The rest are technically negative but with a small, under-threshold positive reading.

Is this test accurate enough for these results to have any useful meaning?

FWIW, a separate PCR testing effort of 100 people with (presumably mild) symptoms found 3 positives. Two other positive cases have surfaced through normal diagnostic testing. San Miguel county has ~8000 people and is home to Telluride Ski Resort which gets visitors from all over.

It's crazy that I can't find the answer to this obvious question in the press release or on the website. As far as I can tell ELISA antibody tests DO NOT have 100% specificity (zero false positives) so there will be false positives.

 

[jerry33]

There's still a lot of UV light even when the sun isn't shining. Viruses don't last long outside a host, I would use time as my primary disinfectant.

How much UV would get in an X. The new ones have a lot of tinting from the factory except for the windshield and front windows? Also I'm not really keen about leaving it outside in an industrial area. I haven't set up the cameras yet.

 

[eevee-fan]

The FDA pushed through approval on purely political grounds, not because there is data to support HCQ as an on-label usage for COVID-19 (there isn't - on-label usage requires RIGOROUS testing and NONE of the studies to date come close to that high bar). You even have the head of the US Gov response to this, Dr. Fauci, who went on record against the president about HCQ (and rightfully so).

OK, so we have the control arm of the experiment (placebo).

 

[sparcs]

Why not have them leave it in the sun for three days?

do you even need sun? Shouldn't letting any surface sit for three days kill the virus?

The only thing I don't know enough about is refrigerated surfaces. For example: How long would the virus last on the outside of a gallon of milk that goes in your refrigerator?