Coronavirus

[Matias]

Apologies if someone already posted this Twitter thread from Mark Lipstitch of Harvard. Note the chart that maps Wuhan numbers vs. US open ICU beds.

If I understand that correctly, he is speaking about the local ICU beds, not ICU beds in the whole USA. In that figure it says USA has ICU beds 2.8/10 000 adults. So with population of 327 000 000 and approximately 80% adults, it would mean approximately 73000 ICU beds. So Wuhan (less than 3000 critically ill, approximating from the chart) would not saturate all the U.S. ICU beds, but of course all _local_ ICU beds.

Maybe this was all clear to everyone else, but it made me to scratch my head for a while. Im surprised, that only the maximum burden of the epidemic saturates all the local ICU beds. Of course those beds are normally only 31.8% free (according to the same chart). And what is propably most important, Wuhan limited the disease with complele lock down.

 

[KarenRei]

Fiat temporarily stops plants in Italy
Fiat Chrysler temporarily stops production in several factories in Italy due to the spread of the virus epidemic. The factories in Pomigliano, Melfi, Atessa and Cassino were to be shut down for two days between Wednesday and Saturday, the Italian-American carmaker said.

The disinfection of the work and rest areas at the locations will be strengthened. This should support government action to curb the spread of the coronavirus.

Sounds like Italy plans to take a page from China's book - impose strict health standards on businesses, ban public gatherings, etc etc.

Well, it works. It's not fast or convenient, but it works.

Unrelated....

 

[jerry33]

I hope you and your wife recover soon!

General observation: if your wife picked up the virus at work and then infected you, how is it possible that you both developed symptoms at about the same time? The assumption so far has been that the virus can only be transferred when someone has symptoms and that the incubation time for the next carrier is at least a few days. Any thoughts?

I thought that what was said was that asymptomatic transmission was not a main source, not that it never happened.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Sounds like Italy plans to take a page from China's book - impose strict health standards on businesses, ban public gatherings, etc etc.

Well, it works. It's not fast or convenient, but it works.
[...]

Might be true.

Once infections are reduced in one area, later there might be an other area where there is a new outbreak.
Normally the virus spread stops at about 70% of infections from all people.
In case this is what will happen we will have to deal with this virus during the next months.
And I certainly do not hope so.

 

[bkp_duke]

I hope you and your wife recover soon!

General observation: if your wife picked up the virus at work and then infected you, how is it possible that you both developed symptoms at about the same time? The assumption so far has been that the virus can only be transferred when someone has symptoms and that the incubation time for the next carrier is at least a few days. Any thoughts?

Or you were both exposed at the same time, and (scary enough) it wasn't her bringing it home from work. Entirely possible.

 

[AlexS]

extrapolating from H1N1 pandemic in 2009

US had biggest death toll, around 3k, but confirmed cases(110 000) were less than in China (120 000)
China had 800 deaths.

So we can expect 10k deaths in US and confirmed cases will be less than in China.

Unfortunately very much possible, but comparing to deaths from influenza(30k), it is just 1/3

Probably deaths from Corona would be same people who otherwise would be taken by flu.

Expect 20k deaths from flu and 10k from corona in USA in flu season 2019-2020.

 

[dl003]

extrapolating from H1N1 pandemic in 2009

US had biggest death toll, around 3k, but confirmed cases(110 000) were less than in China (120 000)
China had 800 deaths.

So we can expect 10k deaths in US and confirmed cases will be less than in China.

Unfortunately very much possible, but comparing to deaths from influenza(30k), it is just 1/3

Probably deaths from Corona would be same people who otherwise would be taken by flu.

Expect 20k deaths from flu and 10k from corona in USA in flu season 2019-2020.

This is where I see us heading. Many businesses will suffer but this is where I see us heading.

 

[saniflash]

is there already reliable data about the development of the pandemic on the Southern hemisphere (e.g. from Brazil or Australia)? Would be interesting to watch the trend there to understand if warmer weather helps or not.

 

[BornToFly]

There is talk at my clinic that with spring and the end of flue season coming the outbreak will be fairly limited now, but really hit hard this coming winter (unless vaccine development/testing can be accelerated). Makes sense....

 

[shootformoon]

You must be kidding. Out of China, Japan and South Korea data. IMHO the only plausible is SK this time. Japan has Olympics, i.e. incentive to under report.

Ya. personally do not trust many of the stats from suspected countries. But at least Japan is not lying as much as China. So I always make two cases, one is assuming the data is correct and one is not and see how it should play out in both cases. Even if I do not trust the Japanese data, the culture itself is not one that lies that much. So even if they do fudge the number you can trust them to fudge as much as Norwegians.

What a lot of people are doing is cherry picking stats. Such as not believing Iran's number but believing China's numbers.

I am afraid we'll only know 2 years down the road, but currently, we have to make decisions soon and these data are all we are gonna get.

 

[Lasairfion]

I don't know if you've come across this blog lately. After being shot down for previous sharing of links, I shall simply say thoughts please

https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2020/03/10/week-4-under-siege-italy-and-the-coronavirus-epidemic/

 

[Snapdragon III]

I hope you and your wife recover soon!

General observation: if your wife picked up the virus at work and then infected you, how is it possible that you both developed symptoms at about the same time? The assumption so far has been that the virus can only be transferred when someone has symptoms and that the incubation time for the next carrier is at least a few days. Any thoughts?

I do not have an answer for that one, but anacdotally it seems to spread around her work place alarmingly fast, and efficiently. Seemed an order of magnitude more infectious than previous virus they had dealt with. She was very careful coming home to leave shoes outside, immediately take off clothes and put them strait in washer, then immediately take a shower. We both came down with symptoms within a couple hours of each other. I had not left the house for about 9 days before, as I knew I had contact with her, and did not want to spread it around to anyone else.

 

[BornToFly]

The American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons has cancelled it's annual meeting that was schedule to take place in 2 weeks in Florida. 27,000 attendees. The economic impact to the hotels, etc., will be massive.

 

[Don TLR]

Sorry if this has already been posted but on my favorite podcast with Joe Rogan is Medical Detective Michael Osterholm who track infectious diseases.

 

[dl003]

Sorry if this has already been posted but on my favorite podcast with Joe Rogan is Medical Detective Michael Osterholm who track infectious diseases.

Can you summarize the main point? Thank you.

 

[bkp_duke]

The American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons has cancelled it's annual meeting that was schedule to take place in 2 weeks in Florida. 27,000 attendees. The economic impact to the hotels, etc., will be massive.

San Diego has been cancelling multiple similar conferences.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I've just found this, probably useful for the data-driven minds here like @KarenRei, and maybe even some human users.
Power BI Report

 

[Ocelot]

I think I might have the distinction of being the first COVID-19 positive member of TMC. My wife is a provider in Kirkland WA, and was exposed at work. She came down with symptoms Sunday evening, and I came down with almost the exact same symptoms a few hours later. We were only able to get her tested, because she is a health care worker. Normal people can not get tested unless they are bad enough to be hospitalized. Her results came in this morning and she was a "strong positive." We both are miserable, but so far our symptoms are on the mild end of the spectrum. It is very scary. Hopefully our symptoms will remain mild. We also know a number of other health workers who have been infected and had much, much worse times of it, than we have so far. This is definitely not just another flu. We are extremely afraid for ourselves, our parents, our community, and the economy.

You say your symptoms are mild, but it is not like another flu. Can you tell how it is not like flu, besides panic in media?

Firstly, hope you wake up feeling a bit better..and progress to symptom free from there.
I am curious as to what was the first symptom?

 

[SageBrush]

I thought that what was said was that asymptomatic transmission was not a main source, not that it never happened.

The incubation range is 2 - 7 days. More than enough for serial transmission to appear concurrent

 

[EVNow]

I hope you and your wife recover soon!

General observation: if your wife picked up the virus at work and then infected you, how is it possible that you both developed symptoms at about the same time? The assumption so far has been that the virus can only be transferred when someone has symptoms and that the incubation time for the next carrier is at least a few days. Any thoughts?

I had posted a paper earlier.

The average incubation period is more than average time it takes to transmit the disease to another person. So, on the average infected patients have already transmitted the disease before any symptoms show up. There is another paper from yesterday that says a patient can infect while just breathing (no need for sneezing/coughing etc) (will post the link when I find it).

I won't be surprised if initial WHO findings turn out to be optimistic.