Discussion: HW.4 Suite - Availability, retrofit, suitability etc.

[hmadsen]

I agree...I ended getting neither option even with the availability of FSD Beta in Canada. And I had a locked in price that was 50% lower than today's pricing.

If Canada had subscription FSD I'd get that once in awhile to see how it is progressing and experience it myself. But no way I'd pay the price for either EAP or FSD when it is locked to the car and not the customer.

Yeah that is another point.

The whole "The software license follows the VIN"

The features bought should have some sort of "moveability". Maybe charge some nominal fee for transfer of the license from one car to another. It is absolutely bonkers that i have to pay a lot of money for this feature, and if i want to buy a different tesla, i have to pay for the feature again.

There should be some sort of "license revokation" feature, where i could disable the license on a car, prior to selling it, and then enable it if i buy a different car.

Would not be so bothered if this was a $1000 feature, but when the price is 6 times that, it is silly.

I dont expect to ever buy FSD, but if the license was transferable and the price went down a bit, i would probably buy NOA package.

Right now in my country the NOA package cost ~$4250, but right now 60% of the features in the feature list are disabled

 

[tevman]

Yeah that is another point.

The whole "The software license follows the VIN"

The features bought should have some sort of "moveability". Maybe charge some nominal fee for transfer of the license from one car to another. It is absolutely bonkers that i have to pay a lot of money for this feature, and if i want to buy a different tesla, i have to pay for the feature again.

There should be some sort of "license revokation" feature, where i could disable the license on a car, prior to selling it, and then enable it if i buy a different car.

Would not be so bothered if this was a $1000 feature, but when the price is 6 times that, it is silly.

I dont expect to ever buy FSD, but if the license was transferable and the price went down a bit, i would probably buy NOA package.

Right now in my country the NOA package cost ~$4250, but right now 60% of the features in the feature list are disabled

On FSD, I’ve subscribed for 9 months now and seen it get better. That’s $1,800 to try it out and use it on a number of long road trips. I’ll see how V11 works soon and then will cancel it until the next road trip. Tesla may change the subscription price so I’ll decide then.

 

[hmadsen]

On FSD, I’ve subscribed for 9 months now and seen it get better. That’s $1,800 to try it out and use it on a number of long road trips. I’ll see how V11 works soon and then will cancel it until the next road trip. Tesla may change the subscription price so I’ll decide then.

I think the idea of monthly subscription is fine for leased vehicles or if you know you are only going to keep the car for a couple of years.

Me, i am just about to take delivery of a brand new 2023 MY LR, i expect to keep it for atleast 5 years, if not more.

I can see that with the current pricing if they were the same in my country (Can not see any pricing for subscription based here) the price you mention is the same as roughly 42 months of subscription

So 3½ years until break even.

But i am not even tempted at the current price / performance.

If the NOA comes down a bit, i might buy this some day down the line though.

 

[woolymammoth17]

I think the idea of monthly subscription is fine for leased vehicles or if you know you are only going to keep the car for a couple of years.

Me, i am just about to take delivery of a brand new 2023 MY LR, i expect to keep it for atleast 5 years, if not more.

I can see that with the current pricing if they were the same in my country (Can not see any pricing for subscription based here) the price you mention is the same as roughly 42 months of subscription

So 3½ years until break even.

But i am not even tempted at the current price / performance.

If the NOA comes down a bit, i might buy this some day down the line though.

In the US the subscription is $200 a month and the purchase is $15,000, so the breakeven is 75 months.

 

[hmadsen]

In the US the subscription is $200 a month and the purchase is $15,000, so the breakeven is 75 months.

In Denmark it is $8350 for FSD, and i can not see any mention of a subscription option here.

Half price if you only want NOA, Auto lane change and the 3 disabled functions

 

[Febtober]

I placed an order for a MYLR a few days ago and have an estimated delivery anywhere from March to May. I'm assuming it'll be HW3 and lacking USS, which a lot of people seem to think will make it nerfed.

My question is if I don't really care about FSD, how important is HW4? It sounds like the latest and greatest which everyone wants of course, but I don't really have any interest in FSD. If that's the case, do I really stand to lose much by sticking with HW3?

 

[WyoDude]

Latest news:

Tesla's new self-driving (HW4) computer leaks: Here's a teardown

Tesla’s new self-driving computer, Hardware 4.0 (HW4), has leaked as the automaker appears to be already building some cars with...

electrek.co

 

[WyoDude]

I placed an order for a MYLR a few days ago and have an estimated delivery anywhere from March to May. I'm assuming it'll be HW3 and lacking USS, which a lot of people seem to think will make it nerfed.

My question is if I don't really care about FSD, how important is HW4? It sounds like the latest and greatest which everyone wants of course, but I don't really have any interest in FSD. If that's the case, do I really stand to lose much by sticking with HW3?

Given your timeline, you will probably learn a lot more about HW4 long before you have the option to take delivery. So you can just wait and see. Might get more info on March 1st.

If you don’t care about FSD then I wouldn’t worry about HW3 or HW4 as much.

 

[rav3n714]

I placed an order for a MYLR a few days ago and have an estimated delivery anywhere from March to May. I'm assuming it'll be HW3 and lacking USS, which a lot of people seem to think will make it nerfed.

My question is if I don't really care about FSD, how important is HW4? It sounds like the latest and greatest which everyone wants of course, but I don't really have any interest in FSD. If that's the case, do I really stand to lose much by sticking with HW3?

Yes, thank you for asking this! This is what I want to know as well. I could care less about FSD. I know a lot of people think otherwise. I just want to know if HW3 will eventually be capable of Park Assist without USS. At the very least some fancy guide lines so I know if I'm about to hit something as I park.

 

[cali949]

I am scheduled for my 2023 model Y delivery on Sunday (Feb 19th) but this recent hardware 4.0 update has given me a pause. I am stretching myself (financially) a bit to buy this car and cannot afford to switch cars every 3-4 years like some of the other tesla fans and I am wondering if there are any recommendations on should I accept the delivery or cancel/replace my order. I doubt that tesla will let me hold my order and push out the delivery until they start fitting Y with 4.0. Even though I am not a big fan of FSD (in its current state) but that can change as tesla improves its software. I also feel that cameras (without Radar support) can only be so much effective and accurate in rain/foggy conditions. Any thoughts/recommendations will be greatly appreciated.

 

[boulder.dude]

Hardware 5.0 is going to be even better than 4.0.

 

[cali949]

very insightful.. thank you..

 

[Tam]

I am scheduled for my 2023 model Y delivery on Sunday (Feb 19th) but this recent hardware 4.0 update has given me a pause. I am stretching myself (financially) a bit to buy this car and cannot afford to switch cars every 3-4 years like some of the other tesla fans and I am wondering if there are any recommendations on should I accept the delivery or cancel/replace my order. I doubt that tesla will let me hold my order and push out the delivery until they start fitting Y with 4.0. Even though I am not a big fan of FSD (in its current state) but that can change as tesla improves its software. I also feel that cameras (without Radar support) can only be so much effective and accurate in rain/foggy conditions. Any thoughts/recommendations will be greatly appreciated.

We might know better on 3/1/2023 Investor Day. but for now, the rumor is S/X will get HW4 first despite previous rumor that Cybertruck would get that first.

That might mean 3/Y might have to wait.

Since now we know that it's not impossible for radar to make a come back in Tesla, I would not take one without it and I would wait for radar to come back to Model Y if you have the patience.

 

[Watts_Up]

... I am wondering if there are any recommendations on should I accept the delivery or cancel/replace my order.

If this is your first Tesla, with the Tesla discount and the IRA tax credit,
you get a very great deal, and I would keep my order and buy it on a heartbeat.

If you have already a Tesla, and feel the need to get a new one, because you have a high mileage,
or the warranty is expiring soon, or other raisons, the Tesla discount and the IRA tax credit
are certainly a good incentive to get a new one.

Otherwise, waiting for the new HW4 hardware will certainly help
for getting a higher resale value in the future, but nobody know
when the HW4 will be delivered. From today news, it is possible that
the Model S and X will get it first, and might already have it installed.

And maybe the Model 3 'Project Highland' and the Model Y might get it
in six months, like September, or by the end of the year for the 2004 model.

However, if you have experience of the current FSD Beta, the HW4 would
not provide too more major changes on highway driving, except may be
for curvy roads, where a faster processing could provide improvements.

I think the HW4, with additional cameras, in particular at the front of the car,
if this is really the case, would essentially improve city driving such as making
left turns,

Honestly, a major change that would make me getting a new car would be
to have a major increase in range, but it doesn't seems to be occuring soon.

Should you wait for 2023 Tesla Model Y Long Range with 4680 Battery or by Tesla now? [Jan 2023]

I have already ordered 2023 Tesla Model Y Long Range but wondering if I should wait for new Tesl Model Y with 4680 Battery. What do you guys think?

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[JupiterMan]

That might mean 3/Y might have to wait.

Since now we know that it's not impossible for radar to make a come back in Tesla, I would not take one without it and I would wait for radar to come back to Model Y if you have the patience.

There will be osborning if 3/Y have to wait for new HW4 hardware.

I've always been suspicious that the covered "highland M3" pictures we saw a few months ago were actually primarily the HW4 sensor suite installed on a M3.

Tesla are fully aware of osborning affects from previous launches (eg HW3), so I would expect a quick turnover to HW4 across the whole product range pretty quickly.

 

[DanDi58]

I am scheduled for my 2023 model Y delivery on Sunday (Feb 19th) but this recent hardware 4.0 update has given me a pause. I am stretching myself (financially) a bit to buy this car and cannot afford to switch cars every 3-4 years like some of the other tesla fans and I am wondering if there are any recommendations on should I accept the delivery or cancel/replace my order. I doubt that tesla will let me hold my order and push out the delivery until they start fitting Y with 4.0. Even though I am not a big fan of FSD (in its current state) but that can change as tesla improves its software. I also feel that cameras (without Radar support) can only be so much effective and accurate in rain/foggy conditions. Any thoughts/recommendations will be greatly appreciated.

@Watts_Up alluded to this - but about 18 months ago, people started waiting (either by trying to push existing orders out, canceling current orders or delaying a new order) for a 4680-equipped MY from Austin. 'It will be much better built!' 'The new 4680's will mean 400 miles of range!' 'New factory means prices will drop!' These were some of the reasons they decided to wait. What have they missed? 18 months of fuel savings when gas prices spiked. 18 months of fun driving the car. Another 18 months of dumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. When the 4680 cars became 'available'*, what happened? Well, range was lower (279 miles vs 330). Quality isn't really any better than Fremont (anecdotal evidence). Prices went way up (although they have come down). *You still cannot order a 4680 car from Tesla; orders that have been fulfilled were for 2170 cars that Tesla reached out to order holders to see if they wanted the 4680 car. Most of the cars built in Austin are 2170 cars.

My point is, there is always something to wait for with Tesla. If you hold out for one thing, then another thing will come along... and you never get the car and all of the benefits and fun it brings along with it. You can make your own choice. I'm glad I didn't wait.

 

[cab]

Like others I have a Model Y on order (have already received my VIN, but delivery is slated to happen between 02/26 and 03/04). The HW4 details are very interesting. There are any number of scenarios that could play out here. I wouldn't be surprised if all cars across all models start to ship with the HW4 COMPUTER soon (although I very much doubt my own MYP order will have it). That alone would not likely be enough for me to cancel my order as it mostly appears to be the same computer with more cores.

However, the REAL benefit to the HW4 computer is the additional inputs it supports - more cameras and radar. This is where it gets interesting (and tricky). It could be that ONLY the Cybertruck gets that new camera/radar suite and @JupiterMan is right and the camouflaged Model 3s we've seen were just test mules for the Cybertruck (or MAYBE Model S/X in the future). Regardless, getting those additional cameras and radar would be a much more compelling reason for me to cancel now.

I could see Tesla saying "everything gets the new computer, but only gets the new Cameras/Radar"...and then a year from now "surprise, all the cars get the new camera/radar". Another possibility is the radar comes before the cameras. The latter appear to require some changes to the body of the car. The radar may just be able to slot under the front bumper w/o too much pain.

If I cancel, I do need to be prepared to wait months for this to all play out....and pay thousands more (especially since I think another price hike - a big one - will hit in March). Darn first world problems!

 

[SSB99]

What's the difference between an Austin Model Y and a Fremont Model Y as of today? I am located in CA, but my Model Y being delivered next week was built in Austin

 

[GoVols!]

Like others I have a Model Y on order (have already received my VIN, but delivery is slated to happen between 02/26 and 03/04). The HW4 details are very interesting. There are any number of scenarios that could play out here. I wouldn't be surprised if all cars across all models start to ship with the HW4 COMPUTER soon (although I very much doubt my own MYP order will have it). That alone would not likely be enough for me to cancel my order as it mostly appears to be the same computer with more cores.

However, the REAL benefit to the HW4 computer is the additional inputs it supports - more cameras and radar. This is where it gets interesting (and tricky). It could be that ONLY the Cybertruck gets that new camera/radar suite and @JupiterMan is right and the camouflaged Model 3s we've seen were just test mules for the Cybertruck (or MAYBE Model S/X in the future). Regardless, getting those additional cameras and radar would be a much more compelling reason for me to cancel now.

I could see Tesla saying "everything gets the new computer, but only gets the new Cameras/Radar"...and then a year from now "surprise, all the cars get the new camera/radar". Another possibility is the radar comes before the cameras. The latter appear to require some changes to the body of the car. The radar may just be able to slot under the front bumper w/o too much pain.

If I cancel, I do need to be prepared to wait months for this to all play out....and pay thousands more (especially since I think another price hike - a big one - will hit in March). Darn first world problems!

What makes you think a major price hike will come in March? My thinking would be the prices might increase another $500-1k as the incentives go away. Elon is all about the fed money and when that disappears, he still has to sell cars to keep shareholders happy. Another interest rate increase is coming as well. Unless he upgrades the Tesla models, not sure how he can excite new buyers with more competition at play.

 

[cab]

What makes you think a major price hike will come in March? My thinking would be the prices might increase another $500-1k as the incentives go away. Elon is all about the fed money and when that disappears, he still has to sell cars to keep shareholders happy. Another interest rate increase is coming as well. Unless he upgrades the Tesla models, not sure how he can excite new buyers with more competition at play.

It's just a guess of course, but I believe the IRS will indicate the full $7500 rebate will remain intact...minimally for a few more months and potentially for the rest of the year. I also believe Tesla already knows this as it may have, ahem, "come up" during the meeting Elon had in Washington. Once the full $7500 is secured, they may feel the freedom to hike prices accordingly. If they announce any "new equipment" (HW 4, etc.) they could use that as justification - although we haven't seen any evidence of changes to Y any time soon. On the low end I might guess another $1000 in hikes in March...on the high end, $4000. As you point out, the macro environment is likely the biggest factor in play here...especially with the hotter CPI, PPI and jobs numbers...all potentially leading to more/larger rate hikes.