lets do the math on this real quick.
I'm In NYC, planning on getting the SR battery. lets say 5 years from now the 220 mile battery only has 187 at full charge (15% range loss). assuming I charge to 80% I get 149.6 miles of available range. Even with a 50% range loss on the coldest of days (and it will be less as the drive gets longer) it's still more than enough even with these calculations that are conservative as hell. Personally I expect less than 15% range loss and on an especially long route could always charge the battery to 100% instead of 80.
I think you are approaching it the right way. Some people use their cars for more than commuting. We used to always take our MDX SUV places on the weekends but since I can charge my Model 3 for free at my work we have been driving it a lot more on area trips since it's basically "free" compared to the 18 mpg we get on the SUV.
Friday I left my office with a 244 mile rated range (80%) charge. I went to a nearby work location that has no charging, it is only about eight miles away.
Then I went home (10 miles or so), picked up the family and went to dinner about 10 miles away and then back home. We got traffic on the way to the restaurant and sat in stop and go traffic for about 30 minutes.
It was around 25-30F the entire time.
When I parked the car in the garage at the end of this "busy" day I had 178 miles left.
So I drove 38 miles roughly and lost about 67 miles of range.
A busier day of family travel would result in a lot more range used and would leave me unable to do the things I need to do if I had the SR car.
YMMV of course.
//aside
The car sat in my garage uncharged (was planning on charging free @ work) for the remainder of the weekend.
I drove 10 miles to work today and they were working on the parking garage and I was unable to charge. I just checked the range on the car via the app and it's now 138. So, I drove 10 miles today, left the car parked in the garage saturday and sunday and the car lost about 40 miles of range.
Yeah, winter time is not EV friendly if you live in a cold climate.