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Florida Waiting Room

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Now that I think about it, with EOQ/EOY, if the tax credit is not retroactive, there will be a ton of rejections in the last couple weeks of December.

The retroactive provision, that was in place to include orders from Memorial Day forward (including mine) in the bill was removed
That dissapeared in September and replaced with the forward looking bill to start in Jan, 2022.
 
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Oh the market may definitely not be as hot as it is now but since it's only $250 to make an order, it's small enough a bet to get a newer car with tax rebates while also cashing in (if market is still hot). If used MY prices have fallen and won't make sense to sell, then all we're out is $250 or we keep that order on hold for 4680 whenever it comes out.

For 2022, it is a reasonable bet new/used Tesla prices will stay around "MSRP".... that doesn't mean you will make any profit flipping to CarMar/Carvana/Vroom if you go that route. There's too much demand, only one factory, and the tax credit will explode Tesla demand.

After Austin factory is up and tax credits are in full force, prices will decline in 2023... possibly like other EVs where used prices will be at least $7500 less than new.
 
For 2022, it is a reasonable bet new/used Tesla prices will stay around "MSRP".... that doesn't mean you will make any profit flipping to CarMar/Carvana/Vroom if you go that route. There's too much demand, only one factory, and the tax credit will explode Tesla demand.

After Austin factory is up and tax credits are in full force, prices will decline in 2023... possibly like other EVs where used prices will be at least $7500 less than new.
I hope they stay MSRP; I am worried they will mask "potential savings" with the new tax credit if passed, so you still "see" $57,000, but the car costs $65,000. I am interested in what will happen next year if all goes planned. I am telling friends and family, if you want a Tesla...get it now. ICE trade-in is still VERY lucrative, and no better time to get in. I did happen to find the law I thought I saw about selling cars "Additionally, Florida law presumes any person, firm, partnership or corporation that buys, sells, offers for sale, displays for sale, or deals in three or more motor vehicles in any 12-month period to be a motor vehicle dealer and must have an appropriate license issued by the state." This is why I have put a hold on my MS date back to buy in September; cause my plan to sell the M3 for the MY and the MY for the MS has failed. I completely forgot I sold my Chevy Spark in Sept.

I am most curious about Texas...still no news on it or any ideas if anything is being produced yet. I will say this about the tax credit, though, if Tesla wants to play this smart. If people place the car on hold and their inventory goes up, put them on the inventory for $7000 less; people will snatch them up to have them now verse waiting. They wouldn't even have to do the $8000 and still make off winning (remember the reason prices are up to is because of demand...does not necessarily mean the car construction cost went up).
 
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I hope they stay MSRP; I am worried they will mask "potential savings" with the new tax credit if passed, so you still "see" $57,000, but the car costs $65,000. I am interested in what will happen next year if all goes planned. I am telling friends and family, if you want a Tesla...get it now. ICE trade-in is still VERY lucrative, and no better time to get in. I did happen to find the law I thought I saw about selling cars "Additionally, Florida law presumes any person, firm, partnership or corporation that buys, sells, offers for sale, displays for sale, or deals in three or more motor vehicles in any 12-month period to be a motor vehicle dealer and must have an appropriate license issued by the state." This is why I have put a hold on my MS date back to buy in September; cause my plan to sell the M3 for the MY and the MY for the MS has failed. I completely forgot I sold my Chevy Spark in Sept.

I am most curious about Texas...still no news on it or any ideas if anything is being produced yet. I will say this about the tax credit, though, if Tesla wants to play this smart. If people place the car on hold and their inventory goes up, put them on the inventory for $7000 less; people will snatch them up to have them now verse waiting. They wouldn't even have to do the $8000 and still make off winning (remember the reason prices are up to is because of demand...does not necessarily mean the car construction cost went up).
If you sell one to buy another does that still count towards your 3? Im not in that boat but just wondering
 
I am most curious about Texas...still no news on it or any ideas if anything is being produced yet.

I can help there...
YT has a number of really good drone pilots who daily fly overs. Joe Tegtmyer and Randy of Texas Terrafactory do outstanding work.

The latest is Austin has its Idra Casting machines up and running and stockpiling front and rear MDY castings. A number of pre-production vehicles have been produced with one hanging from a 2nd floor ceiling as eye candy for the pilots. (Typical Tesla stunt 😎)

They are planning a grand opening event to be held on site just like they did with Berlin. So no, production has not started. The structure is about 85% complete. Workers have been hired as there were numerous days of orientation observed. So, new workers are currently in training.

Musk stated at the shareholder meeting that production would begin before year end and not ramp up fully till late 2022. It appears that we are right in line with that start date. Great!

Do check out YT the videos. They really quite good.
 
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If you sell one to buy another does that still count towards your 3? Im not in that boat but just wondering
Per Florida law, that’s a good question. It doesn’t say if buying a car subtracts from the selling. If that is the case I am going to release the MS for sure. I love the MY and will order that again eventually but getting a MS while there trade in is soooooooo good, I cannot pass it up. Then getting $8000 off the MY later when I purchase, pshhhh no brainer. Frankly, I’ll get the MYP hands down.
I can help there...
YT has a number of really good drone pilots who daily fly overs. Joe Tegtmyer and Randy of Texas Terrafactory do outstanding work.

The latest is Austin has its Idra Casting machines up and running and stockpiling front and rear MDY castings. A number of pre-production vehicles have been produced with one hanging from a 2nd floor ceiling as eye candy for the pilots. (Typical Tesla stunt 😎)

They are planning a grand opening event to be held on site just like they did with Berlin. So no, production has not started. The structure is about 85% complete. Workers have been hired as there were numerous days of orientation observed. So, new workers are currently in training.

Musk stated at the shareholder meeting that production would begin before year end and not ramp up fully till late 2022. It appears that we are right in line with that start date. Great!

Do check out YT the videos. They really quite good.
Joe is my dog but I’ve not watched him since sept :( been so busy with school videos. Good to know they are nearly done and more workers. I did hear they want to hire like 8000 workers, insane.

Are you still 100% set for pickup date? I might drive over to test a MS/X
 
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I am most curious about Texas...still no news on it or any ideas if anything is being produced yet. I will say this about the tax credit, though, if Tesla wants to play this smart. If people place the car on hold and their inventory goes up, put them on the inventory for $7000 less; people will snatch them up to have them now verse waiting. They wouldn't even have to do the $8000 and still make off winning (remember the reason prices are up to is because of demand...does not necessarily mean the car construction cost went up).
I can't imagine Tesla discounting by $7000.... this 2022 (potential) $8000 tax credit is PAID for by the government. I can imagine Tesla calling or e-mail folks who have later 2022 orders to see if they want delivery in 2021... or send the cars to Canada. I'm certain there are hundreds if not thousands of folks willing to take delivery on a Model Y now without the tax credit rather than wait until Sept 2022.

What I can see Tesla doing is jacking up the price by $5K once the tax bill is approved.
 
The retroactive provision, that was in place to include orders from Memorial Day forward (including mine) in the bill was removed
That dissapeared in September and replaced with the forward looking bill to start in Jan, 2022.
Since what's been released so far is a framework, I'm hoping someone fights for that in the actual bill. There's already grumbling about the union built tax credit and some senators wanting to either remove that or reduce it. Doesn't affect Tesla but shows there could still be changes in the final version.
Hopefully this thing is done this year. Now that we're in the holiday season, congress is going to start taking time off willy nilly and leave us wondering what next.
 
I’ve been eyeing this CarMax Model Y car because it’s being sold in my area and similar config to what I ordered.


It hasn’t sold now for 1.5 weeks and they dropped the price $1K to $62K. It’s still $4K over MSRP and used with 11K but I see the prices flattening.
Here is a question...
Are all resale 2021 MDYs upgrades over the original 2020?
Probably, but certainly should be checked into for such items as the dual pane glass front glass.
 
Here is a question...
Are all resale 2021 MDYs upgrades over the original 2020?
Probably, but certainly should be checked into for such items as the dual pane glass front glass.

I think so.. maybe that was a late late 2020 change. The new center console appeared in spring 2021.

I'm hearing threads talk about "manufactured after 12/31/2022" so all VINs with NF should be eligible for the (potential) tax credit so... timing this all will be tricky for those trying to get the fastest delivery.
 
I’ve been eyeing this CarMax Model Y car because it’s being sold in my area and similar config to what I ordered.


It hasn’t sold now for 1.5 weeks and they dropped the price $1K to $62K. It’s still $4K over MSRP and used with 11K but I see the prices flattening.
that is my exact build but I cant see paying $4k more for something used. If I really couldn't wait Tesla has 2 new model 3 on their website - they have FSD so priced higher but I think you are allowed to have it removed after you accept the car. I would buy that and sell it after I got my MY. I have actually thought about it but cant really justify it since I have a car that is running fine. I think I will get pushed into the May-June since I have a EDD of Feb and everyone that is holding theirs will release on Jan 1 and I believe they get moved to the front of the line, but that isnt confirmed.
 
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I'm hearing threads talk about "manufactured after 12/31/2022" so all VINs with NF should be eligible for the (potential) tax credit so... timing this all will be tricky for those trying to get the fastest delivery.

I assume you meant 2021...
Yeah...
Tesla simply cannot build 2 different MDYs. Austin and Fremont have to be in synch. In the ICE world, you buy a leftover of the previous year from the lot. This is going to be interesting.

Blurring the lines between model years is a refreshing, new idea that keeps focus on the vehicle 365 days per year. Front & rear castings are a game changer and requires serious retooling at Fremont. The path of least resistance for Tesla is to match model year (NF vs. MF) to the bill. In a perfect world, quite possible by 12/31/21.

Given Tesla's progressive policies, they stand to have December 2021 M3 & MDY deliveries totally dry up for obvious reasons. That would really hurt Q4 earnings. And those numbers are Tesla's holy grail. What will they do? Maybe the answer is an announcement of a phase-out of the hold policy. That would sort out the ones who want to wait vs. those who will take delivery.

Let's be totally frank, Elon Musk, for all his technical genius, is also a destroyer of legacy corporate atrophy. (I'm a reformed enabler of the Gordon Geko's of the world 😉)

So many variables are in motion. What happens in Congress today can effect what all automakers do tomorrow. As for me, all this has me seriously looking at a 2nd 2022 purchase.


edited for clarity
 
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