FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[jebinc]

I guess you can put whatever name you want to it. I don’t need it to go out and make money while I sleep by taxiing people around. I want it to do full.. self.. driving. As in me not driving, and it fully self driving, while I chill in the driver seat doing other things, and take over ONLY in exigent circumstances.

Same. I fear this won’t happen in my lifetime with my current car/hardware. Not a chance HW3/crappy cameras/camera placement will ever get past L2+ (general driving, and not some farce (small geofenced area)). Not a F’n chance.

 

[EVNow]

I guess you can put whatever name you want to it. I don’t need it to go out and make money while I sleep by taxiing people around. I want it to do full.. self.. driving. As in me not driving, and it fully self driving, while I chill in the driver seat doing other things, and take over ONLY in exigent circumstances.

Yes - that is basically robotaxi level. As I keep saying FSD Beta needs to get 100x to 1000x better to be at that level.

Anyway, thats the "holy grail" that nobody has achieved till now.

 

[tmoz]

I guess you can put whatever name you want to it. I don’t need it to go out and make money while I sleep by taxiing people around. I want it to do full.. self.. driving. As in me not driving, and it fully self driving, while I chill in the driver seat doing other things, and take over ONLY in exigent circumstances.

Gut feel for me on estimated timeline is that I'd be ecstatic if that happened within 5 yrs.

 

[JulienW]

Same. I fear this won’t happen in my lifetime with my current car/hardware. Not a chance HW3/crappy cameras/camera placement will ever get past L2+ (general driving, and not some farce (small geofenced area)). Not a F’n chance.

I have always thought the max we could get would be L3 and I would be happy. But looking at the progress so far (decent it is) BUT the HUGE gulf that still needs to be accomplished I'm becoming more pessimistic that it will happen with our cars. At least in the next 3 to 5 years and/or with the hardware suite.

A >year of Beta and it is just not progressing towards L3 fast enough to actually get there in ANY reasonable timeline. Hope I'm proven totally wrong.

 

[FloridaJohn]

Gut feel for me on estimated timeline is that I'd be ecstatic if that happened within 5 yrs.

That’s what I said five years ago.

 

[impastu]

Never happened to me either … but there are enough people who say it has happened to them ….

definitely happened to me at least twice...one each of a red light and stop sign

 

[Gbills]

That’s what I said five years ago.

How many think that Elon will still be running Tesla when level three is reached????

 

[JulienW]

How many think that Elon will still be running Tesla when level three is reached????

While Elon was beyond instrumental in getting Tesla where it is (or was 6 months ago) it is probably time to find a "Tim Cook" to move Tesla forward. In fact at the rate TSLA is dropping Apple may just buy Tesla next year anyway.

Wait didn't Musk just recently say TSLA was going to be more valuable than AAPL. Guess he meant a barrel of actual apples and not AAPL.

 

[jebinc]

While Elon was beyond instrumental in getting Tesla where it is (or was 6 months ago) it is probably time to find a "Tim Cook" to move Tesla forward. In fact at the rate TSLA is dropping Apple may just buy Tesla next year anyway.

Wait didn't Musk just recently say TSLA was going to be more valuable than AAPL. Guess he meant a barrel of actual apples and not AAPL.

Rotten apples, at that!

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I did notice your video was from 10.69.2.4 and if I recall correctly the 10.69.3.x releases had improvements to to lane topology functionality so this might be something to retest.

Tried this morning, no differences noted. Still fails to maintain lane position as in the video.
Progress is extremely gradual.
I like the new features that keep getting added, for the most part, though. Very sad they moved the Homelink location back to the top though.

 

[Twiglett]

55mph max with most vehicles going at 65.

right
Round here driving like that will get you run off the road by a lifted pickup
Most country roads here are 65-75 mph, 65 means at least 70, 75 means 80 - still with that tractor way off in the distance pulling out infront of you
Usually its the guys who drive the tractors that are the ones tailgating you in their lifted pickups.

 

[EVNow]

right
Round here driving like that will get you run off the road by a lifted pickup
Most country roads here are 65-75 mph, 65 means at least 70, 75 means 80 - still with that tractor way off in the distance pulling out infront of you
Usually its the guys who drive the tractors that are the ones tailgating you in their lifted pickups.

But this is not that kind of road. Its 55 mph max (and just a mile from some Microsoft buildings).

 

[TenKOhms]

Yes - that is basically robotaxi level. As I keep saying FSD Beta needs to get 100x to 1000x better to be at that level.

Anyway, thats the "holy grail" that nobody has achieved till now.

Correct me if I’m wrong, I thought I’ve seen videos online of some company/service does that do entirely driverless taxis?

 

[tmoz]

That’s what I said five years ago.

You can say that again!

 

[Knightshade]

Correct me if I’m wrong, I thought I’ve seen videos online of some company/service does that do entirely driverless taxis?

A very few do- but only in very specific parts of very specific cities, with specific high-res mapping first, and most often only with very specific hours when traffic is light, and often only to specific people.

For example Cruise just launched "driverless taxis" in Austin-- but only overnight, about half the nights of the week, to specific people on a list, and in only certain parts of Austin.


Tesla is trying for a much more general solution intended to work everywhere, all the time.... they're not remotely there with FSDb of course, but it's an entirely different model.

 

[jebinc]

A very few do- but only in very specific parts of very specific cities, with specific high-res mapping first, and most often only with very specific hours when traffic is light, and often only to specific people.

For example Cruise just launched "driverless taxis" in Austin-- but only overnight, about half the nights of the week, to specific people on a list, and in only certain parts of Austin.


Tesla is trying for a much more general solution intended to work everywhere, all the time.... they're not remotely there with FSDb of course, but it's an entirely different model.

“Not even remotely,” being the operative words…

 

[Bombegranate]

I guess you can put whatever name you want to it. I don’t need it to go out and make money while I sleep by taxiing people around. I want it to do full.. self.. driving. As in me not driving, and it fully self driving, while I chill in the driver seat doing other things, and take over ONLY in exigent circumstances.

Agreed. This isn't rocket science. You (and I) want it to do what the name says. That is a totally reasonable expectation.

 

[EVNow]

Correct me if I’m wrong, I thought I’ve seen videos online of some company/service does that do entirely driverless taxis?

They are geofenced and not available for consumers to buy.

 

[FloridaJohn]

Yes - that is basically robotaxi level. As I keep saying FSD Beta needs to get 100x to 1000x better to be at that level.

Anyway, thats the "holy grail" that nobody has achieved till now.

They are geofenced and not available for consumers to buy.

I thought you’re claim was that no one has achieved a level of safety high enough to be a robotaxi.

 

[EVNow]

I thought you’re claim was that no one has achieved a level of safety high enough to be a robotaxi.

Yes … not geofenced robotaxi level quality. Nobody has achieved it and it’s the holy grail of AVs.