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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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I have 30.5 sitting waiting for install which seems to have gone out wide. Dunno if I should install or hang on the current version with hope of v11 at some point. is there a path to v11 from 30.5?
2022.44.30.5? at least put in the week for goodness sakes. haha it is 3 characters

I'd update any OTA ASAP as they all are on the road to v11.
 
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I have 30.5 sitting waiting for install which seems to have gone out wide. Dunno if I should install or hang on the current version with hope of v11 at some point. is there a path to v11 from 30.5?
I think the more public V11 update will come in a 2023 version number.

It also looks like they are moving pretty aggressively to having everything merged into the same release branch (AFAIK)
 
If you take every update as it comes and install them, it has been proven you will get what you are looking for later rather than sooner. Your call good luck
How so ?

When V11 does come out, it will be available to everyone. But before that
- V11 has to go to more employees
- V11 has to go to YouTubers

Expect a couple releases to fix bugs at each stage. I won’t expect V11 for at least a few weeks and by then, it might be on a 2023 main build.
 
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How so ?

When V11 does come out, it will be available to everyone. But before that
- V11 has to go to more employees
- V11 has to go to YouTubers

Expect a couple releases to fix bugs at each stage. I won’t expect V11 for at least a few weeks and by then, it might be on a 2023 main build.
Just like we discussed before when some of us stuck with 2022.40.4.1 or . 2 and received FSDb rather then installing the latest Xmas update and had to waite for FSDb to catch them. All the time being available for everyone. The direction is narrowing but the game as I see it hasn’t changed.
 
Just like we discussed before when some of us stuck with 2022.40.4.1 or . 2 and received FSDb rather then installing the latest Xmas update and had to waite for FSDb to catch them. All the time being available for everyone. The direction is narrowing but the game as I see it hasn’t changed.
V11 is just the next FSDb release. Everyone on FSD 10.69.x will be able to update.
 
Just like we discussed before when some of us stuck with 2022.40.4.1 or . 2 and received FSDb rather then installing the latest Xmas update and had to waite for FSDb to catch them. All the time being available for everyone. The direction is narrowing but the game as I see it hasn’t changed.
You are conflating going from a higher version nonBeta to a lower version Beta. If on Beta you get updates and are not ahead of upcoming Beta releases. V11 is NA at this time and Beta will NOT be a version behind when V11 is eventually released. V11 will be a higher release number. Saying the current installed Beta is ahead of a soon to be released Beta is a contradiction.
 
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You are conflating going from a higher version nonBeta to a lower version Beta. If on Beta you get updates and are not ahead of upcoming Beta releases. V11 is NA at this time and Beta will NOT be a version behind when V11 is eventually released. V11 will be a higher release number. Saying the current installed Beta is ahead of a soon to be released Beta is a contradiction.
Please go back and read the other post back to 2022.40.4.1 when FSDb was opening up to non beta users.
What we KNOW now (not guessing) is the following:
V11 2022.44.25.20 one download
The people below that version have a better chance to get V11 than the ones above it. That’s what we know for sure. Up to you to decide based on your own best guess.
Another gentleman had ask if he should go to 2022.44.30.5 which at that time was ahead of V11 2022.44.25.20 is where this post began.
 
Please go back and read the other post back to 2022.40.4.1 when FSDb was opening up to non beta users.
What we KNOW now (not guessing) is the following:
V11 2022.44.25.20 one download
The people below that version have a better chance to get V11 than the ones above it. That’s what we know for sure.


We absolutely DO NOT know that-- just the opposite in fact, because 2022.44.25.20 is almost certainly not the one that will go to public customers.

Further- if the beta is now in the wide-release branch the issue you're concerned about goes away entirely.
 
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We absolutely DO NOT know that-- just the opposite in fact, because 2022.44.25.20 is almost certainly not the one that will go to public customers.

Further- if the beta is now in the wide-release branch the issue you're concerned about goes away entirely.
Ok but you say absolutely and in the next line you say almost certain. That is the point you are making a judgement call based in SOME facts and your personal assumptions.
 
V11 is just the next FSDb release. Everyone on FSD 10.69.x will be able to update.

It will probably depend on V11 number and the installation number you are on. Maybe by the time V11 comes out all of us are on the same number!!! That would be one way we can all get it at the same.time.
Here is an example of where people came from to get to 10.69.25 ... ala many many previous version.

Version 2022.44.25.5 aka Full Self Driving Beta Version 10.69.25
wk7hAOq.jpg
 
You are conflating going from a higher version nonBeta to a lower version Beta. If on Beta you get updates and are not ahead of upcoming Beta releases. V11 is NA at this time and Beta will NOT be a version behind when V11 is eventually released. V11 will be a higher release number. Saying the current installed Beta is ahead of a soon to be released Beta is a contradiction.
Perhaps, but it would help explain the issue of always, several steps forwards - some (more or less) number of steps backwards, eh?
 
Please go back and read the other post back to 2022.40.4.1 when FSDb was opening up to non beta users.
What we KNOW now (not guessing) is the following:
V11 2022.44.25.20 one download
The people below that version have a better chance to get V11 than the ones above it. That’s what we know for sure. Up to you to decide based on your own best guess.
Another gentleman had ask if he should go to 2022.44.30.5 which at that time was ahead of V11 2022.44.25.20 is where this post began.
2022.44.25.20 is not likely to go out to non-employees. There will be a newer candidate release this month that might go out, depending on what issues are found with it.