FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[tivoboy]

So much for roll-out this week..

Tesla Recalls More Than 362,000 Cars Due to ‘Full Self-Driving’ Crash Risk

Tesla Inc. is recalling hundreds of thousands of vehicles after US authorities said its automated-driving technology could increase the risk of a crash.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[MP3Mike]

Looks like they may need to remove beta from all vehicles. CNBC just announced the recall

Nope:

 

[MP3Mike]

So much for roll-out this week..

Tesla Recalls More Than 362,000 Cars Due to ‘Full Self-Driving’ Crash Risk

Tesla Inc. is recalling hundreds of thousands of vehicles after US authorities said its automated-driving technology could increase the risk of a crash.

www.bloomberg.com

Yeah, this has likely caused some of the V11 delay, but it looks like they didn't start talking to NHTSA about this until January 25th...

I guess the $42k question is what version will the fix be? Another V10 revision, or will it be the move to V11? (But it will be "in the coming weeks". )

 

[tivoboy]

Yeah, this has likely caused some of the V11 delay, but it looks like they didn't start talking to NHTSA about this until January 25th...

I guess the $42k question is what version will the fix be? Another V10 revision, or will it be the move to V11? (But it will be "in the coming weeks". )

not sure how quickly they are moving, but I'm guessing nearly everyone will get some V10 'recall' update before they roll out a V11 beta push.. could be wrong, but depending on how long NHTSA has given TSLA to comply with the "recall" and OTA update, waiting till the next major release - which would have been a slow roll regardless, is probably not going to be blessed by NHTSA..

TWT

 

[Mardak]

But it will be "in the coming weeks"

I would guess it'll just be the FSD Beta 11 wide release. How does the recall practically affect new and existing vehicles? I believe Tesla isn't allowed to sell new vehicles that are subject to recall, so I suppose good thing for Tesla there's still a not-FSD-Beta software and one with FSD Beta, but then again, factory vehicle software could also just not be the FSD Beta one if Tesla needed to keep it separate. But for existing vehicles, how quickly does something need to be resolved as typical physical recalls can take years?

If there isn't really a rush for existing vehicles, then potentially we end up with NHTSA continuously recalling the current version of FSD Beta for some time. I.e., no different than Tesla's usual FSD Beta update cycle where the new version "will improve how FSD Beta negotiates certain driving maneuvers during the conditions described above."

 

[MP3Mike]

not sure how quickly they are moving, but I'm guessing nearly everyone will get some V10 'recall' update before they roll out a V11 beta push.. could be wrong, but depending on how long NHTSA has given TSLA to comply with the "recall" and OTA update, waiting till the next major release - which would have been a slow roll regardless, is probably not going to be blessed by NHTSA..

NHTSA gives lots of time to get recalls applied. Take a look at the latest status report for the Bolt battery fire recall:

After more than a year they still hadn't gotten to more than 17% of them.

Or the Tesla MCU1 eMMC recall:

Almost two years later and they have only dealt with ~62% of the subject vehicles.

 

[MP3Mike]

I would guess it'll just be the FSD Beta 11 wide release. How does the recall practically affect new and existing vehicles? I believe Tesla isn't allowed to sell new vehicles that are subject to recall, so I suppose good thing for Tesla there's still a not-FSD-Beta software and one with FSD Beta, but then again, factory vehicle software could also just not be the FSD Beta one if Tesla needed to keep it separate. But for existing vehicles, how quickly does something need to be resolved as typical physical recalls can take years?

Do people even read the recall documents?

So no impact to production or delivery of new vehicles. But they likely won't allow any new vehicles to opt in to the FSD beta version until the new version is released.

As for the how quickly, look at my prior post.

 

[Gbills]

So much for roll-out this week..

Tesla Recalls More Than 362,000 Cars Due to ‘Full Self-Driving’ Crash Risk

Tesla Inc. is recalling hundreds of thousands of vehicles after US authorities said its automated-driving technology could increase the risk of a crash.

www.bloomberg.com

I didn’t know we had 362,758 vehicles on the same version FSD beta.

 

[ddeflyer]

I didn’t know we had 362,758 vehicles on the same version FSD beta.

So given the broad rollout of FSD, we probably now know how many FSD purchasers + subscribers there are...

 

[tivoboy]

NHTSA gives lots of time to get recalls applied. Take a look at the latest status report for the Bolt battery fire recall:

View attachment 907919

After more than a year they still hadn't gotten to more than 17% of them.

Or the Tesla MCU1 eMMC recall:
View attachment 907920
Almost two years later and they have only dealt with ~62% of the subject vehicles.

Could be, but there may certainly be a difference between the way NHTSA views a recall requirement for something which was low probability for which the OEM did provide some logistical if not comical remedy (keep it parked outside, or return it to dealership for refund, etc) vs. what NHTSA now considers and calls a “collision risk” in more than one situation. Could be something to do with what they have assessed is the risk at speed, to other vehicles and drivers around or for ultimate harm to the driver/occupants. I don’t think that was the case for the Bolt battery recall.

 

[tivoboy]

I didn’t know we had 362,758 vehicles on the same version FSD beta.

They probably aren’t all on the same version, but that number lines up with the ~”400K” that have “purchased” FSD or are “able to download FSDb” that Tesla referenced during their quarterly call. It most likely means that 10% haven’t clicked on the TRY BETA button yet.

I don’t think this is all just ONE version of FSDb though, I’ve seen these types of issues for over a year now. Two version ago it still wanted to drive through a solid red light.

 

[Mardak]

So no impact to production or delivery of new vehicles. But they likely won't allow any new vehicles to opt in to the FSD beta version until the new version is released.

Right, that's what I was hinting at. More broadly, this might affect Tesla's desire to merge FSD Beta 11 into the main production vehicle software as it would affect factory software on new vehicles going forwards if there's a risk of another NHTSA recall. Although how existing regulations are applied to software such as "recall" terminology could be a bit murky around what's the difference between a FSD Beta button toggle vs a software install button where without pushing either, FSD Beta subject to the recall or fix couldn't be active.

As for not sending software updates to existing vehicles after the initial sale, can NHTSA even do anything there? Looking at TeslaFi and Teslascope, there have been plenty of updates to FSD Beta since February 7th where Tesla decided to administer a voluntary recall.

 

[Gbills]

Right, that's what I was hinting at. More broadly, this might affect Tesla's desire to merge FSD Beta 11 into the main production vehicle software as it would affect factory software on new vehicles going forwards if there's a risk of another NHTSA recall. Although how existing regulations are applied to software such as "recall" terminology could be a bit murky around what's the difference between a FSD Beta button toggle vs a software install button where without pushing either, FSD Beta subject to the recall or fix couldn't be active.

As for not sending software updates to existing vehicles after the initial sale, can NHTSA even do anything there? Looking at TeslaFi and Teslascope, there have been plenty of updates to FSD Beta since February 7th where Tesla decided to administer a voluntary recall.

I would think when Tesla did a voluntary recall they already worked out a plan with the code for the solution before reporting.

 

[MP3Mike]

I would think when Tesla did a voluntary recall they already worked out a plan with the code for the solution before reporting.

That isn't how it normally works. Recall notices are often sent out before a solution to the problem has been developed, or is available. (Be that hardware or software.)

 

[EVNow]

I guess the $42k question is what version will the fix be? Another V10 revision,

Yes.

I would guess it'll just be the FSD Beta 11 wide release.

I doubt it. They don't want to mix a "recall" with an iffy update.

 

[powertoold]

Nhtsa raining on our parade again. If Tesla has to limit the speed to the speed limit, fsdb might as well be dead.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Nhtsa raining on our parade again. If Tesla has to limit the speed to the speed limit, fsdb might as well be dead.

Cruise and Waymo limit their vehicles to the speed limit and I don’t think anyone is claiming that is what is preventing them from scaling.

 

[MP3Mike]

Nhtsa raining on our parade again. If Tesla has to limit the speed to the speed limit, fsdb might as well be dead.

It doesn't appear that they requested that.

In addition, the system may respond insufficiently to changes in posted speed limits or not adequately account for the driver's adjustment of the vehicle's speed to exceed posted speed limits.

So it seems like they are OK with the driver setting a speed above the limit. (It is just that FSD needs to follow it better.)

 

[powertoold]

Cruise and Waymo limit their vehicles to the speed limit and I don’t think anyone is claiming that is what is preventing them from scaling.

Well Waymos and Cruise suck: cars are slow to reach destination, takes a long time to hail a car, people are only using them as gimmicks, they're a money sink, among many other reasons.

 

[powertoold]

So it seems like they are OK with the driver setting a speed above the limit. (It is just that FSD needs to follow it better.)

At this point, it just seems like nhtsa is nitpicking about preferential issues. If the car doesn't adjust to the speed limit fast enough it's a problem, if it's too fast, it's also a problem. Nhtsa is just imposing their preference on this. I know some people prefer faster adjustment, I'm perfectly fine with how it is right now. Majority of drivers (anecdotal) don't make fast adjustments to decreasing speed limits. It's the same thing with rolling stops. 1% of drivers I've ever seen actually stop to 0-1mph with no cars around.