FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[ArchHamster]

Yep, the Great Charlatan…. Also, no new releases in the past 24 hours. Next you’ll hear, “we found a bug, so next release coming soon…”. Even though v11 has been in testing for six months and still is on a very old 2022 firmware branch!

Totally expecting to hear this, this week. I treat Elon kind of like a dead beat dad. You know the kind that says they'll totally be at your sports game or show up for the science fair or whatever but never does and always has an excuse. It's always, 'work ran late today,' ("haha guys, solving the ai problem engineers have been struggling decades to solve ended up being hard, who knew, lul") but really he was out cheating on your mom with a mistress (twitter) but you still love him because he's your dad (of tesla), but eventually the lies grow so big that you finally work up the courage to confront him and instead of him taking responsibility to do better he cripples hw3 by removing radar and uss and blames you for his failed marriage because you didn't love him enough and how dare you hold him responsible for his past actions and words after everything he's done for you and hw4 is around the corner and it's totally going to solve his marriage problems. Then he excuses himself to spend time with his mistress (tweeting) and forgets about hw4.

 

[dramsey]

I'm hoping it's more just a step-function approach to ensure there's no huge issues - release to 1%, wait, release to 10%, wait, release to all.
(this is also all speculation but we can hope!)

Depending on the definition of "wide rollout" means, I guess. I mean, even 1% of about 400,000 cars is still 4,000 cars, and that's wide. right?

 

[Mardak]

Sort of a baseline metric for maybe disengagements/interventions or true safety issues like crashes (though those are very infrequent so the number of miles driven needs to likely be in the hundreds of thousands/millions) before they deem it safe for a larger and larger audience

Yeah, there's probably multiple metrics for safety that progressively require more vehicles and miles to more accurately detect. For example the initial early access group of about 1000 can provide general qualitative feedback while a 1% rollout of around 5000 vehicles could better detect issues related to the wide variety of vehicle hardware and software configurations in the wild.

Increasing the rollout to 10% could have enough power to identify significant to moderate driving behavior regressions, so if any are severe enough, there might need to be a new dot release. While the final phase of the rollout to the whole fleet could provide statistically significant comparisons such as those used in Tesla's quarterly Vehicle Safety Reports.

 

[Pdubs]

Totally expecting to hear this, this week. I treat Elon kind of like a dead beat dad. You know the kind that says they'll totally be at your sports game or show up for the science fair or whatever but never does and always has an excuse. It's always, 'work ran late today,' ("haha guys, solving the ai problem engineers have been struggling decades to solve ended up being hard, who knew, lul") but really he was out cheating on your mom with a mistress (twitter) but you still love him because he's your dad (of tesla), but eventually the lies grow so big that you finally work up the courage to confront him and instead of him taking responsibility to do better he cripples hw3 by removing radar and uss and blames you for his failed marriage because you didn't love him enough and how dare you hold him responsible for his past actions and words after everything he's done for you and hw4 is around the corner and it's totally going to solve his marriage problems. Then he excuses himself to spend time with his mistress (tweeting) and forgets about hw4.

This post wins funniest post ever award

 

[kabin]

I heard Tesla has a supply shortage of bits. Apparently they need to mine more before they can meet FSD V11 rollout demand.

 

[EVNow]

It's always, 'work ran late today,' ("haha guys, solving the ai problem engineers have been struggling decades to solve ended up being hard, who knew, lul") but really he was out cheating on your mom with a mistress (twitter) but you still love him because he's your dad (of tesla),

Who actually thinks FSD would have been "solved" by now if EM didn't buy the bird site ?

 

[ScoobyDoo82]

Who actually thinks FSD would have been "solved" by now if EM didn't buy the bird site ?

I think a lot of things would be solved right now if EM just up and left Tesla. The EM of today is not one and the same as the guy who went broke (multiple times) starting Tesla and SpaceX. The dude has changed massively over the past 3 years especially. The whole Twitter saga will never be looked at as a positive part of the enigma that is EM. Majority of big investors with Tesla now are none of the OG’s. Anyone who genuinely loves EM today is on the bandwagon because they recently got a Tesla. Those of us that have been following/supporting him for a decade have began to get a little tired of his antics. The funny post above with EM being compared to Dad is very true.

 

[tivoboy]

Who actually thinks FSD would have been "solved" by now if EM didn't buy the bird site ?

I don’t think it would have been “solved” by now, but I think it would most certainly be further along.

 

[swedge]

Well, except that he does actually say that. I realize that detailed parsing Elon's pronouncements is a sport here, but still, when he says things like:

"We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that."

...that qualifies as "you'll definitely have it by this date (i.e. the end of the year)", doesn't it?

It does not.

"I'm certain of that." clarifies that the entire statement was a personal opinion. His prognostication was wrong, but it was only his opinion, not a promise. Had he said "or your money back", now that would ave been a promise.

A Pew Research Center study in 2018 found that only a quarter of US adults could consistently distinguish between statements of fact and statements of opinion, so welcome to the vast majority.

Elon is pretty consistent with his inclusion of what I call weasel words, by which he avoids actually saying what it sounds like he is saying. Not exactly obfuscation, but it certainly results in confusion and disappointment.

Thank you for including the entire quote, and for stating your premise as a question rather than as a fact.

 

[Scott Chapman]

I heard Tesla has a supply shortage of bits. Apparently they need to mine more before they can meet FSD V11 rollout demand.

I think they got too many 0's and not enough 1's. Usually people overstock 1's because they are easier to stack (assuming you pick a sans serif font of course)

 

[jebinc]

Totally expecting to hear this, this week. I treat Elon kind of like a dead beat dad. You know the kind that says they'll totally be at your sports game or show up for the science fair or whatever but never does and always has an excuse. It's always, 'work ran late today,' ("haha guys, solving the ai problem engineers have been struggling decades to solve ended up being hard, who knew, lul") but really he was out cheating on your mom with a mistress (twitter) but you still love him because he's your dad (of tesla), but eventually the lies grow so big that you finally work up the courage to confront him and instead of him taking responsibility to do better he cripples hw3 by removing radar and uss and blames you for his failed marriage because you didn't love him enough and how dare you hold him responsible for his past actions and words after everything he's done for you and hw4 is around the corner and it's totally going to solve his marriage problems. Then he excuses himself to spend time with his mistress (tweeting) and forgets about hw4.

Yep, I “confronted” that “deadbeat dad” by purchasing a Rivian right under his nose!

 

[Dewg]

New software update rolling out - slows down - some people on TMC:

 

[kriskros91]

I think a lot of things would be solved right now if EM just up and left Tesla. The EM of today is not one and the same as the guy who went broke (multiple times) starting Tesla and SpaceX. The dude has changed massively over the past 3 years especially. The whole Twitter saga will never be looked at as a positive part of the enigma that is EM. Majority of big investors with Tesla now are none of the OG’s. Anyone who genuinely loves EM today is on the bandwagon because they recently got a Tesla. Those of us that have been following/supporting him for a decade have began to get a little tired of his antics. The funny post above with EM being compared to Dad is very true.

I think something that is being lost in the Twitter antics is that he has "secretly" gained a press machine through Twitter. Tesla and subsidiaries (charging, solar, etc.) is much more into marketing now via Twitter than ever before. Everyone says that Tesla does 0 marketing/advertising but we do see some announcements and videos/pictures that are almost exclusively posted to Twitter along with their website. There has to be some $$$ being used from all of their excess profits in making these promotional "ads" and publishing them to Twitter. Except that he completely controls that medium of information sharing so he doesn't have to pay any money to the medium itself to run ads. This is something that people don't really think about as a sort of positive of the Twitter acquisition.

 

[EVNow]

I think a lot of things would be solved right now if EM just up and left Tesla.

Would FSD get solved if EM left Tesla right now ? How ?

People don't seem to understand it is a tough AI problem. They think there is some magic wand Elon can wave to solve it - if only he wasn't busy tweeting.

ps : I'm one of the fircest critics of EM on the Twitter saga (checkout Twitter thread). But, that has nothing to do with FSD.

 

[JimmyB]

New software update rolling out - slows down - some people on TMC:

View attachment 919897

For anyone who simply must have it now, the answer is easy: just buy my car

 

[swedge]

Looking at TeslaFi's data on 11.3.2 installations, it appears the there have been two waves so far. The first release to roughly 100 cars began around 11 pm on the 18th. The second release to 500 more began around 11 pm on the 19th.

So, perhaps the next wave will be around 2,500 starting before midnight tonight.

Or not, who knows.

In any case I decided not to check mine today, or at least not till we see a surge in the installation rate.

Actually I hope Murphy's law strikes, proving my 11 pm hypothesis wrong when the third wave starts as I click Post....

 

[johnmodely]

sigh looks like the rollout was paused....what are we thinking couple more weeks before everyone gets it?

 

[gsmith123]

Theory: maybe they only want to do rollouts at night?

And as of last night, they’d had not collected enough data to go wider. Tonight, maybe they’ve hit the next milestone.

 

[Scott Chapman]

Wow they are flooding 2023.6.8 updates at the moment (must be NHTSA related)

 

[kriskros91]

I don't think those posts on Twitter are being done for "free." The losses at Twitter have to be offset one way or another.

Elon Musk's SpaceX buys ad campaign on Twitter for Starlink

SpaceX has bought an advertising package on Twitter for its satellite internet service Starlink, said Elon Musk, who owns the rocket company and the social media platform that is seeing an exodus of advertisers.

www.reuters.com

So he's subsidizing the losses at one company for the sake of others? Seems like that is against the mission of the company and not in shareholders interest. But then again shareholders weren't the ones telling him not to advertise either.