FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[gsmith123]

Wow they are flooding 2023.6.8 updates at the moment (must be NHTSA related)

That’s not an FSD Beta release. Not sure what NHTSA recall it would be related to. Looks more like just a routine wide release of the production build

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

There's no way to really spin Elon's timelines.

At least on the statement from last week it was “promises made, promises kept.”

And basically I was wrong (though I and many others still don’t have it, I think it is likely we will before the next few weeks pass), on this release of v11 (thought it would be a month or two).

Teslas never needing new brakes over the life of the car

Well, he is definitely right about that, as long as the pads don’t decay and you don’t have FSD.

There is basically never a need to use brakes on a Tesla, so don’t see how this statement would be false (aside from defects of course).

If you want to use up the brakes of course you can, very easily. But that is a definite choice!

I know someone who has driven a Nissan Sentra for 150k-200k miles and 20 years without replacing brakes, so no reason 500k or a million miles in a Tesla could not be done.


Anyway I am waiting for v11, to see if it can exit the freeway - the famous “impossible exit” near Sorrento Valley onto Carmel Mountain road (AP/NOA is unable to take this exit). Should all be very interesting, sometime.

 

[jabloomf1230]

At least on the statement from last week it was “promises made, promises kept.”

And basically I was wrong (though I am many other still don’t have it, I think it is likely we will before the next few weeks pass), on this release of v11 (thought it would be a month or two).

Well, he is definitely right about that, as long as the pads don’t decay and you don’t have FSD.

There is basically never a need to use brakes on a Tesla, so don’t see how this statement would be false (aside from defects of course).

If you want to use up the brakes of course you can, very easily. But that is a definite choice!

I know someone who has driven a Nissan Sentra for 150k-200k miles and 20 years without replacing brakes, so no reason 500k in a Tesla could not be done.

I just turned off the option that uses friction braking when regen is limited. It seemed like the car was using friction braking more than I would do manually.

 

[JHCCAZ]

I think they got too many 0's and not enough 1's. Usually people overstock 1's because they are easier to stack (assuming you pick a sans serif font of course)

There's a supply shortage of ones because everyone wants one, and after all no one wants nothing.

So Tesla will handle this by training a neural network to make something out of nothing. It just takes a bit of effort.

Remember that the best one is no one.

In the meantime our existing cars will have nothing, but I assure you that something is coming and everyone will get one, as soon as they are able to add one to the software.

Of course, doubters here have zero confidence in this one, but I for one have zero doubt. I've learned that it usually takes a bit longer to achieve one, and Tesla is working hard on this one.

 

[Acisplat]

Teslascope said they were unable to interact from their Twitter account but everything should be good now.
They said there's a good chance there will be another rollout today, and they haven't heard anything from employees about there being a new build that would cause a full rollout pause.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I just turned off the option that uses friction braking when regen is limited. It seemed like the car was using friction braking more than I would do manually.

Yeah I only have that garbage on so that I can see when FSD is jamming them on (which is frequent, though improved somewhat lately). I would just keep my foot over the brake pedal to feel it, but it is much more important to cover the accelerator, sadly. Fortunately I only charge to 55% so the likely excessive & non optimal behavior at high SOC is not a problem.

With all the rain though, maybe the frequent braking is a safety feature so they are ready if you need them and not completely rusted over.

 

[Mateo83]

Theory: maybe they only want to do rollouts at night?

And as of last night, they’d had not collected enough data to go wider. Tonight, maybe they’ve hit the next milestone.

Got my push at 2:30pm

 

[thewishmaster]

Last few times I've gotten updates late in the day around Tuesday (usually after my last opportunity to test it on the road) so maybe they'll do another push soon

 

[heapmaster]

Totally expecting to hear this, this week. I treat Elon kind of like a dead beat dad. You know the kind that says they'll totally be at your sports game or show up for the science fair or whatever but never does and always has an excuse. It's always, 'work ran late today,' ("haha guys, solving the ai problem engineers have been struggling decades to solve ended up being hard, who knew, lul") but really he was out cheating on your mom with a mistress (twitter) but you still love him because he's your dad (of tesla), but eventually the lies grow so big that you finally work up the courage to confront him and instead of him taking responsibility to do better he cripples hw3 by removing radar and uss and blames you for his failed marriage because you didn't love him enough and how dare you hold him responsible for his past actions and words after everything he's done for you and hw4 is around the corner and it's totally going to solve his marriage problems. Then he excuses himself to spend time with his mistress (tweeting) and forgets about hw4.

LOL This was great, so funny.

 

[jebinc]

Seems DOA; no additional releases in over 36 hours.

 

[ScoobyDoo82]

Would FSD get solved if EM left Tesla right now ? How ?

People don't seem to understand it is a tough AI problem. They think there is some magic wand Elon can wave to solve it - if only he wasn't busy tweeting.

ps : I'm one of the fircest critics of EM on the Twitter saga (checkout Twitter thread). But, that has nothing to do with FSD.

I never mentioned FSD. Lol, I intentionally said “many things”. I honestly don’t think anyone is going to solve FSD anytime soon. The whole concept of level 3 or 4/5 autonomy is not possible (in my opinion) no matter how good software and hardware get if there isn’t some form of constant communication between every group of vehicles (regardless of make) on a the road together. Autopilot with airplanes relies on tower and transponder contact between each plane (for X amount of shared airspace). This is the only way autonomous travel is truly safe and possible. Car’s operating in a much more crowded space cannot simply rely on varying software/hardware - there needs to communication/networking.

 

[dramsey]

It does not.

"I'm certain of that." clarifies that the entire statement was a personal opinion. His prognostication was wrong, but it was only his opinion, not a promise. Had he said "or your money back", now that would ave been a promise.

A Pew Research Center study in 2018 found that only a quarter of US adults could consistently distinguish between statements of fact and statements of opinion, so welcome to the vast majority.

Elon is pretty consistent with his inclusion of what I call weasel words, by which he avoids actually saying what it sounds like he is saying. Not exactly obfuscation, but it certainly results in confusion and disappointment.

Thank you for including the entire quote, and for stating your premise as a question rather than as a fact.

Interesting study; thanks for the citation. According to it, a factual statement is on that “could be proved or disproved based on objective evidence.”

When Elon said “We will be feature complete full self driving this year”, I think that’s a promise, with an implied date of ”at or before the end of the year.” Furthermore, it can be proved or disproved based on objective evidence, i.e. Tesla did not in fact have full self driving that year.

So I asked some fairly literate friends if they thought that tacking on ”I’m certain of that” rendered the prior statement of fact a statement of opinion as opposed to a promise.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, they were divided. One was of the opinion that if he had said something like ”I’m pretty sure of that” or any other deviation from absolute certainty, that it could be considered an opinion; but that “I’m certain of that” made it a de facto promise. Another thought as you did.

In the end, though, your conclusion about “weasel words” and “confusion and disappointment” are really the take-away from this.

 

[EVNow]

I don’t think it would have been “solved” by now, but I think it would most certainly be further along.

How so ?

 

[swedge]

I never mentioned FSD. Lol, I intentionally said “many things”. I honestly don’t think anyone is going to solve FSD anytime soon. The whole concept of level 3 or 4/5 autonomy is not possible (in my opinion) no matter how good software and hardware get if there isn’t some form of constant communication between every group of vehicles (regardless of make) on a the road together. Autopilot with airplanes relies on tower and transponder contact between each plain (for X amount of shared airspace). This is the only way autonomous travel is truly safe and possible. Car’s operating in a much more crowded space cannot simply rely on varying software/hardware - there needs to communication/networking.

For airplanes, Air Traffic Control manages separation between airplanes manually. ATC talks via radio with planes, and assigns headings and altitudes to keep them from bumping into each other. And this is only for instrument flight rules (IFR) or voluntary VFR flight following. In all other cases, it is strictly "see and avoid". Aircraft autopilots have nothing to do with this. It is eyeballs, ground based radar (augmented with transponders) and human controllers via 2 way voice radio. All very old school.

GPS based traffic collision avoidance system (TCAS, wiki) is a backup for planes so equipped, but it can not see planes which are not so equipped. Check out that TCAS wiki article if you think this is the way to make cars autonomous. Many of the same issues pertain. For example, have you ever seen your car confuse a frontage road with a parallel freeway, and note how GPS mapping does not know which lane you are in. And how well does your Tesla Nav work where there is no cellular coverage?

But back to your main point, FSD is not synonymous with fully autonomous driving. While I agree FSD will probably not be Robotaxi very soon, perhaps FSD as a useful driver assist is not so far off. Having 360º vision and response times in milliseconds may well render our driving far safer, which will be a big deal. I'm not so clear on the use case for RoboTaxi though. I don't see us letting our MY moonlight for drunk strangers. Keeping us mobile when we can no longer drive due to age, disability or intoxication, that might make sense, but I'm not sure about the cost reduction vs Uber, given the capital, insurance, maintenance, etc costs.

 

[willow_hiller]

Some rough turns (I'm guessing he needs to dial down the max speed in his neighborhood), but I'm amazed that FSDb v11.3.2 can gracefully handle gated communities. It pulls up, opens the gate with home link, waits for the gate to open, and then proceeds:

 

[Pdubs]

Yep, I “confronted” that “deadbeat dad” by purchasing a Rivian right under his nose!

View attachment 919887

View attachment 919889

Cancel the CT?

Neighbor has one and it pretty much checks all the boxes. Grats on that beautiful tool!

 

[ScoobyDoo82]

For airplanes, Air Traffic Control manages separation between airplanes manually. ATC talks via radio with planes, and assigns headings and altitudes to keep them from bumping into each other. And this is only for instrument flight rules (IFR) or voluntary VFR flight following. In all other cases, it is strictly "see and avoid". Aircraft autopilots have nothing to do with this. It is eyeballs, ground based radar (augmented with transponders) and human controllers via 2 way voice radio. All very old school.

GPS based traffic collision avoidance system (TCAS, wiki) is a backup for planes so equipped, but it can not see planes which are not so equipped. Check out that TCAS wiki article if you think this is the way to make cars autonomous. Many of the same issues pertain. For example, have you ever seen your car confuse a frontage road with a parallel freeway, and note how GPS mapping does not know which lane you are in. And how well does your Tesla Nav work where there is no cellular coverage?

But back to your main point, FSD is not synonymous with fully autonomous driving. While I agree FSD will probably not be Robotaxi very soon, perhaps FSD as a useful driver assist is not so far off. Having 360º vision and response times in milliseconds may well render our driving far safer, which will be a big deal. I'm not so clear on the use case for RoboTaxi though. I don't see us letting our MY moonlight for drunk strangers. Keeping us mobile when we can no longer drive due to age, disability or intoxication, that might make sense, but I'm not sure about the cost reduction vs Uber, given the capital, insurance, maintenance, etc costs.

General point: autonomous driving (FSD or otherwise) has long way to go, even if the antiquated “old school” airplane tech doesn’t get incorporated.

 

[jebinc]

Cancel the CT?

Neighbor has one and it pretty much checks all the boxes. Grats on that beautiful tool!

Costa me nothing to hang onto my launch day reservation until configuration time - to see what the Great Charlatan actually delivers. I will likely keep the Rivian as I really like it! Just added running boards and custom trimmed in with Compass Yellow welting; to match all of the Rivian accents.

 

[TK211X]

I bet there’s a chicken in an enclosed space peking at random crap. Then, there’s a camera watching it from above and it feeds into a decision matrix which decides who gets 11.3.2.

 

[gsmith123]

I mean, there are worse ways of generating entropy for random number generation in computer systems than chickens...

CloudFlare uses lava lamps which is kind of cool