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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


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Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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I mean, there are worse ways of generating entropy for random number generation in computer systems than chickens...

CloudFlare uses lava lamps which is kind of cool
Yeah, there's several methods like that to generate truly random numbers. I remember somebody set up measuring the delta-Time between Geiger counter ticks, with the Geiger counter pointed at a radioactive sample.

At one time I had my very own personal random bit generator. It worked off of a reverse-biased Zener diode. The shot noise is truly unpredictable.
 
So I asked some fairly literate friends if they thought that tacking on ”I’m certain of that” rendered the prior statement of fact a statement of opinion as opposed to a promise.
[emphasis mine]

The prior statement began with "I think". See the 9:52 mark of the podcast for the full statement. The quote found in this thread isn't literally what he said, but it's close.


In that interview, he's pretty insistent that they'll pull it off - but what he's insistent about is that they'll be "feature complete". That's another can of worms that would have to be picked through.

fea·ture-com·plete
adjective COMPUTING
  1. denoting a version of a piece of software having all the functionality intended for the final version but requiring some improvements and fixes before release.
Elon has a need to operate in the world of science fiction, so when he looks at the things his people are doing, he sees cities in space and an electrified world. If he's truly delusional, then let's just hope he keeps it together until they can get Starship flying regularly and FSD working at least to Level 3. I want to drive without the nag at least. I'm sure I'm gonna develop an RSI from it.
 
I bet there’s a chicken in an enclosed space peking at random crap. Then, there’s a camera watching it from above and it feeds into a decision matrix which decides who gets 11.3.2.
While I was waiting for my Model 3 Long Range, I was convinced that Mr. Bean was running the Estimated Delivery Date system. Maybe he has other duties now.

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I just turned off the option that uses friction braking when regen is limited. It seemed like the car was using friction braking more than I would do manually.
Funny I enabled that setting for the first time today since I did a trip charge. Only friction braking I had was at the start of the trip when the battery was full. After that friction braking never kicked in. I'm going to leave the setting enabled to see how well it works.
 
You were mostly correct. The above is incorrect. It can see other aircraft that are Mode S or Mode C-equipped. As stated in the wiki you linked.
Correct. And then there’s the aircraft that were certified without an electrical system…. Well you better be looking out of the window for those lol
 
Correct. And then there’s the aircraft that were certified without an electrical system…. Well you better be looking out of the window for those lol
Lol, now I shifted this thread from car related autonomy to aircraft autonomy 🙄 sorry guys!

But seriously, does anyone have an educated idea/guess when us newly subscribed (fresh on 2023.2.12 branch) will get FSDb? Obviously Tesla won’t roll me back to the 2022.45.X branch. So.. are folks on the 2023.X.X branch just poop out of luck?
 
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Lol, now I shifted this thread from car related autonomy to aircraft autonomy 🙄 sorry guys!

But seriously, does anyone have an educated idea/guess when us newly subscribed (fresh on 2023.2.12 branch) will get FSDb? Obviously Tesla won’t roll me back to the 2022.45.X branch. So.. are folks on the 2023.X.X branch just poop out of luck?
They’ll probably do a 11.3.3 that’s updated for 2023. Whether that’s the reason for the pause is anyone’s guess. It’s also possible they’re not bothering merging the changes in because they’re going to release V11 to the base software fleet.
 
They’ll probably do a 11.3.3 that’s updated for 2023. Whether that’s the reason for the pause is anyone’s guess. It’s also possible they’re not bothering merging the changes in because they’re going to release V11 to the base software fleet.
This has been the version releasing “next week” since last last August!

“Just one more thing…”.

Major case of development-testing-release constipation. I’d say, blockage level severity! But, no surprise at all. Zero. @uthatcher


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.....But seriously, does anyone have an educated idea/guess when us newly subscribed (fresh on 2023.2.12 branch) will get FSDb?...
This must be rhetorical.🥴 If Elon Musk himself gave you an answer it would all but certainly be wrong. 🤔 🤣 So how could anyone here give a REAL answer. So it likely will be between "2 weeks or so" and "end of the year".;)
 
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Maybe the pause that refreshes is to give the team a chance to monitor thousands of new customer voice notes. Unfortunately many youtuber voice recordings I watched seemed relatively worthless with stammering confused descriptions. Tesla might need to provide instructions/examples/keywords to make it more useful.
It really is mind boggling at some of the people “YouTuberTeslaShills” they get the Betas first as “testers” 🤷🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️