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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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"Beta" classification is misused and abused by Telsa - Defects rates fit more a pre-alpha classification. Also, many Telsa non FSD beta features have been in the "Beta" state" for nearly a decade. Fact.
But it's so misused now (and has been for years) that the original alpha/beta classifications are all but wiped out. Google have products in beta for years. Apple release "beta" versions of macOS missing ½ the features, let alone having buggy versions of them.
 
But it's so misused now (and has been for years) that the original alpha/beta classifications are all but wiped out. Google have products in beta for years. Apple release "beta" versions of macOS missing ½ the features, let alone having buggy versions of them.
Beta now just means open, public testing.

Irrespective of what some might assume, all companies have some quality bar that needs to be met before releasing such versions.
 
For the record, and on another note, my 2016 VW Golf R had RADAR and adaptive cruise and it never, ever, ever had a single instance of phantom braking. How come Teslas, even with RADAR before it was disabled, struggle here?



Volkswagens Needlessly Brake on Their Own Due to Defects in the Front Assist Technology

Owners say it will also apply the brakes when there is no imminent collision. Sometimes it will detect something that's not there and stop the car in the middle of the road.

Among the cars specifically mentioned:
the 2016 VW Jetta, Beetle, CC, e-Golf, Golf, Golf GTI, Golf R and Golf SportWagen




Again every brand of car with radar has had this problem.

Some worse than others (some had braking issues so bad massive recalls and lawsuit happened)- but everyone has the problem generally, even if you find anecdotal "WELL IT NEVER HAPPENED TO ME" folks.
 





Among the cars specifically mentioned:
the 2016 VW Jetta, Beetle, CC, e-Golf, Golf, Golf GTI, Golf R and Golf SportWagen




Again every brand of car with radar has had this problem.

Some worse than others (some had braking issues so bad massive recalls and lawsuit happened)- but everyone has the problem generally, even if you find anecdotal "WELL IT NEVER HAPPENED TO ME" folks.
How about, I don’t know a single person with a Tesla who has not had phantom braking on the highway, and I don’t know a single person driving a VW who’s had the car emergency brake on the highway?

Still anecdotal? Sure. Still true? Absolutely.
 
How about, I don’t know a single person with a Tesla who has not had phantom braking on the highway, and I don’t know a single person driving a VW who’s had the car emergency brake on the highway?

Still anecdotal? Sure. Still true? Absolutely.


To be fair, I don't know a single person driving a VW so I can't offer counter evidence :)

Didn't have much trouble finding such owners online complaining about it though.

And it seems like the problem didn't stop with those models I mentioned before, even the current ID4 owners have it-
Hilariously there's the same thing over in that forum... multiple people reporting the problem, then the occasional "this never happens to me, all your cars must be broken" poster.
THIS one is extra good because it includes:
It happened in my Golf once
So kinda 2 birds with 1 stone there :)
 
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To be fair, I don't know a single person driving a VW so I can't offer counter evidence :)

Didn't have much trouble finding such owners online complaining about it though.

And it seems like the problem didn't stop with those models I mentioned before, even the current ID4 owners have it-
Hilariously there's the same thing over in that forum... multiple people reporting the problem, then the occasional "this never happens to me, all your cars must be broken" poster.
THIS one is extra good because it includes:

So kinda 2 birds with 1 stone there :)
I don’t doubt any of the reports. It’s interesting because I drive the exact same roads I did in my Golf in my Tesla. One Golf = 0 phantom braking events. Three Teslas = 3x phantom braking vehicles. I’m also curious as to how vision only has solved the problems Elon says it does. What problems were solved?
 
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How about, I don’t know a single person with a Tesla who has not had phantom braking on the highway, and I don’t know a single person driving a VW who’s had the car emergency brake on the highway?

Still anecdotal? Sure. Still true? Absolutely.
And it seems like the problem didn't stop with those models I mentioned before, even the current ID4 owners have it-
Many of us live in TMC / Tesla bubble and don't see other forums often enough. I suggest all the #TeamJunk members to start perusing other forums for some realworld comparison.
 
To be fair, I don't know a single person driving a VW so I can't offer counter evidence :)

Didn't have much trouble finding such owners online complaining about it though.

And it seems like the problem didn't stop with those models I mentioned before, even the current ID4 owners have it-
Hilariously there's the same thing over in that forum... multiple people reporting the problem, then the occasional "this never happens to me, all your cars must be broken" poster.
THIS one is extra good because it includes:

So kinda 2 birds with 1 stone there :)
Oh, and also wanted to add that those VW phantom braking events are anomalous - and defects as far as I can tell. Even the responses are basically take the car into service. If every Tesla owner experiencing phantom braking went into service, every Tesla would be in service.
 
Thats interesting ... the stop sign is visualized. May be the car thinks the stop sign is for the other side ... ?

Does it actually stop there if there isn't any car infront or does it just run the stop sign?

On that post I included a second pic showing the car with an intent to run and no car in front. On this and the last version, there has been a 100% incidence of intent to run (no one in front).

Because of the correct placement of the stop sign in the visualization (not located on the far side of the intersecting road), it should be interpreted as a stop sign for the road I'm traveling on. In earlier fsdb versions it would occasionally stop.

This is what the car saw before it got to the road it intended to run:

incl_stop-sign.jpg