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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Perhaps not surprising for many here, but there's changes not listed in the 11.4.6 release notes, e.g., new behavior and message for maintaining speed for traffic flow:

11.4.6 maintaining speed.jpg


Here it seems to stay closer to the previous higher speed limit when entering a slower speed limit area but other vehicles are still moving fast.

 
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Something similar happened to me. Car swerved left. I didn't know why until I saw a guy on a bike with no lights whatsoever riding on the right side of a dark 45 mph 2 lane road. I didn't see him until I was right on him. I believe FSDb saved an accident.
Similar happened to me. Snow covered road with six foot high mounds on each side (no sidewalk)... poor visibility. Late at night looking for a road sign when the car eased over to help me miss a pedestrian.
 
I've got a 3-way stop where FSDb thinks it's a 2-way stop so it ends up creeping forever until it decides it's clear to go.

It appears to be a map issue, because you can see on the display that only two of the stops are rendered. Is there a known way to help get that type of map data corrected? Anything from driving down the road with the stop sign so the car sees it, to submitting FSDb feedback to? I have reported the excessive creeping, at this intersection after disengaging a number of times over a period of a few months already.
 
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Have people noticed this type of lane biasing behavior before? It looks like FSD Beta 11.4.6 shifted right because of a passenger getting into a truck from the next lane over:

11.4.6 vehicle future.jpg


Was it because it predicted that the vehicle behind would cross the dashed white line as it approached the person, so the car gave extra space?

If so, this could be similar to narrow road situations that require predicting other vehicles' future behaviors to decide whether to pull off to the side to give space and let the other vehicle go first. I've noticed FSD Beta predicting oncoming traffic will encroach the center line to go around parked cars and cones on the other side of the road to preemptively bias more to the right and give space, but I don't think I've experienced it happening for traffic going in the same direction like in this scenario.

Maybe related is I have noticed 11.4.4 giving an extra boost when making an unprotected turn and there's now traffic approaching quickly from behind, but if there's nobody to potentially slow down, it's more gradual in accelerating. I suppose this "look behind" behavior is probably tied to how 11.4.6 decides to maintain speed for traffic flow instead of suddenly slowing down for speed limit decreases.
 
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Is the FSD development team in trouble? TeslaFi shows 11.4.6 to have stalled. 11.4.5 didn't even show up at all there.

Worse, 2023.26.3 does not seem to include 11.3.6. Does this mean FSD and the production code has become un-merged again? Has 11.3.6 been discontinued?

Meanwhile, FSD 12 is being touted. So we have work on at least four fronts simultaneously? 11.4.x, FSD in 2023.20.x, FSD 12.x, and 2023.26.x .

Does this make sense? Anyone? Bueller?

It looks like one of those old slot car races, with spin-outs in one lane crashing into other lanes.
 
Is the FSD development team in trouble? TeslaFi shows 11.4.6 to have stalled. 11.4.5 didn't even show up at all there.

Worse, 2023.26.3 does not seem to include 11.3.6. Does this mean FSD and the production code has become un-merged again? Has 11.3.6 been discontinued?

Meanwhile, FSD 12 is being touted. So we have work on at least four fronts simultaneously? 11.4.x, FSD in 2023.20.x, FSD 12.x, and 2023.26.x .

Does this make sense? Anyone? Bueller?

It looks like one of those old slot car races, with spin-outs in one lane crashing into other lanes.
If I remember correctly 11.3.6 originally looked to be stalled a couple of days and then it flooded out quickly to almost all of us in a few days. I think 11.4.6 is meant to be the stable version like 11.3.6 was and Tesla is carefully analyzing for obvious bugs before a full quick rollout.

I believe 23.20.5 was the first version of 23.20.x to get 11.3.6. So likely the same for 23.26.x. They want to be sure 23.26.x is stable enough before adding FSD Beta to it. Another plausible reason is Tesla may be waiting to add 11.4.6 if it is stable enough to 23.36.x so HW4 cars can use FSD Beta. HW4 is a big deal that needs addressing.

Vision 12 is not being touted. Just a single standard hyperbole Xeet by Musk. He did the same thing about V11 almost a year before it was released.

So in reality this all looks more like de-ja vu than Tesla team in trouble.
 
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If I remember correctly 11.3.6 originally looked to be stalled a couple of days and then it flooded out quickly to almost all of us in a few days. I think 11.4.6 is meant to be the stable version like 11.3.6 was and Tesla is carefully analyzing for obvious bugs before a full quick rollout.

I believe 23.20.5 was the first version of 23.20.x to get 11.3.6. So likely the same for 23.26.x. They want to be sure 23.26.x is stable enough before adding FSD Beta to it. Another plausible reason is Tesla may be waiting to add 11.4.6 if it is stable enough to 23.36.x so HW4 cars can use FSD Beta. HW4 is a big deal that needs addressing.

Vision 12 is not being touted. Just a single standard hyperbole Xeet by Musk. He did the same thing about V11 almost a year before it was released.

So in reality this all looks more like de-ja vu than Tesla team in trouble.
Those priors did not all happen at the same time. And removing 11 from the production branch seems like an ominous regression.

I do hope you are right that it is the just more of the same old stuff.
 
Is the FSD development team in trouble? TeslaFi shows 11.4.6 to have stalled. 11.4.5 didn't even show up at all there.

Worse, 2023.26.3 does not seem to include 11.3.6. Does this mean FSD and the production code has become un-merged again? Has 11.3.6 been discontinued?

Meanwhile, FSD 12 is being touted. So we have work on at least four fronts simultaneously? 11.4.x, FSD in 2023.20.x, FSD 12.x, and 2023.26.x .

Does this make sense? Anyone? Bueller?

It looks like one of those old slot car races, with spin-outs in one lane crashing into other lanes.
I don't care how many pre-released versions Tesla skips.
I just want a version that fixes most of the issues so that I don't have to constantly complain about FSD.
Version skipping is not a sign of trouble. It's a positive sign.
 
As much as we complain about FSDb, I just test drove a GMC Sierra Denali Ultimate w/super cruise. Not impressed.

It’s great (SuperCruise)on the highway (as it’s designed to be), but the other “ADAS” stuff is pretty rough. ACC was wonky in stop and go traffic. It uses a lot of rear braking (some type of torque vectoring, I’d assume). I could just see the $$$$ flying out the window for the rear pads I’d probably have to change twice a year. No active lane centering on secondary roads, just some “lane keep assist” that ping pongs you between lane markings. Way too many buttons too.

It was a pleasure to get back in my Tesla, punch in my next destination and have the car take me there. Folks can $hit all over Tesla and how FSD sucks, but it’s way way ahead of what other OEM’s have available now.
 
As much as we complain about FSDb, I just test drove a GMC Sierra Denali Ultimate w/super cruise. Not impressed.

It’s great (SuperCruise)on the highway (as it’s designed to be), but the other “ADAS” stuff is pretty rough. ACC was wonky in stop and go traffic. It uses a lot of rear braking (some type of torque vectoring, I’d assume). I could just see the $$$$ flying out the window for the rear pads I’d probably have to change twice a year. No active lane centering on secondary roads, just some “lane keep assist” that ping pongs you between lane markings. Way too many buttons too.

It was a pleasure to get back in my Tesla, punch in my next destination and have the car take me there. Folks can $hit all over Tesla and how FSD sucks, but it’s way way ahead of what other OEM’s have available now.
I think the “rub,” is three-fold. First, while FSDj can drive you to a location (sort of), it is wholly unpredictable/repeatable/reliable when doing so. With the other companies products, that are “less than,” they are much more predicable/reliable for their limited scope. Next, the other manufacturers don’t tout and spew nearly the amount of BS as Elon (aka, the Charlatan) and his band of merry YT shills (e.g., Mars) do. Lastly, the other companies do not hide, perpetually, under a “beta” cover. That’s the difference.

@WilliamG
 
Those priors did not all happen at the same time. And removing 11 from the production branch seems like an ominous regression.

I do hope you are right that it is the just more of the same old stuff.
As I stated Tesla did remove FSD Beta 11.3.6 from the first versions of 23.20.x (23.20.4 still didn't have the Beta added back) after being in the later versions of 23.12.x. Was it so ominous then? It looks like Tesla is just repeating the same pattern with 23.26.x at this point in the release cycle. If we get to 23.26.5 and still no FSD Beta maybe THEN you could start to worry, but not now since this seems to be standard operating procedure.

Screenshot 2023-07-28 at 12.48.28 PM.png
 
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