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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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I have settled into a routine with 11.4.4 (which, given how long I have had it, I should have!):

I take over on any unprotected left turn where there is more than a couple of cars on the road (I live in a rural area).

I take over everywhere there is a stop sign on the road that does not have a stop sign indicated on the map.

I hit the accelerator on all flashing yellow lights since FSD wants to stop for some reason.

I do not let FSD drive in urban areas. If I lived in an urban area, FSD would have been a complete waste of money.

I pay close attention to the route FSD chooses. I drive the same way to work every day, but for some reason, FSD routes differently some days. This is important because if FSD takes a new route, it make make a new unprotected left when I do not expect it. With what I have seen, unprotected lefts == potential death at rural two lane highway speeds of 55 mph.

All freeway driving and light traffic rural road driving is wonderful. This constitutes more than 99% of my driving in the Tesla, so I am satisfied with FSDs performance thus far, although I feel like I am paying to be a guinea pig.

I will keep hoping for some stability in FSD. Unpredictability is both annoying and dangerous, and FSD seems to change overnight or day to day, even when there are no “official” code updates.

Joe
I have settled into a routine with 11.4.4 as well, Joe. Mine is simpler. That routine is “FSDj off”.

Sorry, couldn’t resist!
 
I would be happy with the “Vaporize hick southern drivers who pull out in front of me and then go slow” feature. I don’t need all the weapons… just this one.

Joe
They have this, is a projectile version of this that comes out of the front bumper.


It’s called the RCRDS

”redneck coal roller defense system”
 
  • Funny
Reactions: Pdubs and jebinc
Actually he rated the driving of FSDb better than the Mercedes. But the Mercedes got extra points for having things like a capacitive steering wheel.
That’s truely amazing, given how unpredictable and unreliable FSDj has been, and remains so today. Given, feom drive to drive, FSDj variation/unpredictability is as high as it is, FSDj is nothing more than a parlor trick. If it can’t be relied on, day after day, that’s all it is. The other manufacturer systems may lack all the capabilities that FSDj attempts, but what it does deliver, it does so more reliably and predictably.
 
Wait, are you saying that A) you got into beta with a SUBSCRIPTION FSDb only, and B) you’ve been on the “subscription” since that time, the entire tIme? Having paid, what ~ $4100 for the subscription all these months?

I didn’t even know FSDb subscriptions WERE a thing that far back, but also why wouldn’t one go in and out over time to minimize the cost/waste?
I've had three Model X's as shown in my signature. I bought FSD on the first one (2020 model year) but then sold that at the top of the market in December 2021, while waiting for my new order to be filled. My order was delayed for a year so I bought a used 2018 model that had FSD and beta, and was lucky enough not to have beta removed. My new X finally came in December 2022 and I decided to subscribe, not buy FSD, because it's my HOPE to be able to buy another new Model X in a few years and given the low residual value of FSD it pencils out better to subscribe.
 
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Reactions: pilotSteve
It's just.. so weird.

Yesterday, the SO and I piled into our 2018 M3 with FSD-b and took a trip from Central Jersey to this, "It's near the Delaware River, so it's full of cutesy gift shops" on the Pennsylvania side, "Peddlar's Village".

Not a bad place. Food was a bit high priced, though, so drove from there to New Hope, which actually is on the Delaware. And from there to home.

Let's see: local roads in Central Jersey (this is, like congestion, for those who don't know) onto a 3/4 lane interstate, left exit some distance up onto one of thse vaguely country, two lanes in each direction, with the occasional stop light; through a toll booth onto the Pennsylvania side, then another ten or twelve miles to this village thing, relatively fast two-lane road.. Horrors: the car wanted me to turn right into what looked like a lane, so I intervened. The first intervention that day. And the car was right: That was the lane into one of the big parking lots. Had to dodge considerable foot traffic to get into the same lot a couple hundred yards up and on the right. (I could have let FSD-b dodge the pedestrians.. but there are Limits, here.) Oh, yeah: The autopark worked fine.

On the way back, figuring the foot traffic wasn't worth the risk, got back on the two-lane road and let FSD-b do its thing to the restaurant. It did a decent job all the way to Downtown and, with roughly the same amount of foot traffic as back in Peddlar's Village, took over again and parked.

After dinner, rather than going over the toll bridge, turned left, instead, then hung a left over the ancient bridge across the Delaware, then stop-and-go through the town on the Jersey side. When got out of downtown there, hung a left and let FSD-b do its thing. All the way home, two-way country roads, 50 mph, 55 on the four-lane roads, traffic circles, off ramps, on ramps, back onto the interstate and home. No interventions.

About 90 miles of driving. I think one phantom brake experience, but the car was possibly looking at somebody coming up fast on the right and got cautious.

FSD-b didn't try to kill anyone. A bit jerky at times, sure. And, sure, it doesn't drive the same way I do.

Don't quite get it. If one reads this sub-forum, one gets the idea that the FSD-b is completely unreliable, a threat to public safety, full of bugs, and dangerous as all get out. On the other hand, I just drove 90 (or the car drove, you guys pick it) miles in a five year-old Tesla Model 3 with the Gen 3 computer, an upgrade. Yeah, the car's got RADAR and the USS, but those aren't even supposed to be turned on in 11.4.4.

I'll admit that this car can get in trouble sometimes. There's this red light-controlled intersection that it likes to run, probably because of some flickering issue. There's a particular unprotected left turn that, on my side, has room to let other cars through on the right, but the car moves right-ward, blocking traffic. On a particular on-ramp, if there's heavy traffic in the travel lane the car has trouble getting over, especially as the merge area is pretty short. So, bugs. But life-threatening? Nope.

Something about these older cars that work better than the newer ones? Dunno.
 
Totally Agree with Tronguy above.
It's just.. so weird.

Yesterday, the SO and I piled into our 2018 M3 with FSD-b and took a trip from Central Jersey to this, "It's near the Delaware River, so it's full of cutesy gift shops" on the Pennsylvania side, "Peddlar's Village".

Not a bad place. Food was a bit high priced, though, so drove from there to New Hope, which actually is on the Delaware. And from there to home.

Let's see: local roads in Central Jersey (this is, like congestion, for those who don't know) onto a 3/4 lane interstate, left exit some distance up onto one of thse vaguely country, two lanes in each direction, with the occasional stop light; through a toll booth onto the Pennsylvania side, then another ten or twelve miles to this village thing, relatively fast two-lane road.. Horrors: the car wanted me to turn right into what looked like a lane, so I intervened. The first intervention that day. And the car was right: That was the lane into one of the big parking lots. Had to dodge considerable foot traffic to get into the same lot a couple hundred yards up and on the right. (I could have let FSD-b dodge the pedestrians.. but there are Limits, here.) Oh, yeah: The autopark worked fine.

On the way back, figuring the foot traffic wasn't worth the risk, got back on the two-lane road and let FSD-b do its thing to the restaurant. It did a decent job all the way to Downtown and, with roughly the same amount of foot traffic as back in Peddlar's Village, took over again and parked.

After dinner, rather than going over the toll bridge, turned left, instead, then hung a left over the ancient bridge across the Delaware, then stop-and-go through the town on the Jersey side. When got out of downtown there, hung a left and let FSD-b do its thing. All the way home, two-way country roads, 50 mph, 55 on the four-lane roads, traffic circles, off ramps, on ramps, back onto the interstate and home. No interventions.

About 90 miles of driving. I think one phantom brake experience, but the car was possibly looking at somebody coming up fast on the right and got cautious.

FSD-b didn't try to kill anyone. A bit jerky at times, sure. And, sure, it doesn't drive the same way I do.

Don't quite get it. If one reads this sub-forum, one gets the idea that the FSD-b is completely unreliable, a threat to public safety, full of bugs, and dangerous as all get out. On the other hand, I just drove 90 (or the car drove, you guys pick it) miles in a five year-old Tesla Model 3 with the Gen 3 computer, an upgrade. Yeah, the car's got RADAR and the USS, but those aren't even supposed to be turned on in 11.4.4.

I'll admit that this car can get in trouble sometimes. There's this red light-controlled intersection that it likes to run, probably because of some flickering issue. There's a particular unprotected left turn that, on my side, has room to let other cars through on the right, but the car moves right-ward, blocking traffic. On a particular on-ramp, if there's heavy traffic in the travel lane the car has trouble getting over, especially as the merge area is pretty short. So, bugs. But life-threatening? Nope.

Something about these older cars that work better than the newer ones? Dunno.
Totally agree with Tronguy. I also have a M3 2018 with FSDb. I put on about 900 miles a week commuting to places I do consulting work. I couldn't do it without FSBb. Almost all disengagement I do are for convenience. FSDb is really great in new towns because it never misses a turn. The few times I doubted it and disengaged, it was right and I had to circle around and go back.

Based on reading many of the comments I wonder why other people have so many problems with their FSDb. Maybe Tronguy is right, the older Teslas do better. When I drive my wife's Model Y, 2020, it also performs very good in my opinion. Some annoyances here and there and an unnecessary slow once in a while...but overall really takes the tedium out of my drives.
 
Based on reading many of the comments I wonder why other people have so many problems with their FSDb. Maybe Tronguy is right, the older Teslas do better.
I think the important differences are in the locations (road geometry, traffic, and all the rest) and driver sensitivity (what bothers you, what you think is dangerous) far more than in the generation of car. We drive a 2022 model Y and a 2023 model 3, and my experience is much closer to yours than it is to the alarmists. But they post more per capita.
 
Gave my 22 year old a taste of FSD and she was amazed, it’s only on my T and not hers, I was sitting in the drivers seat

I can see the gen X embracing FSD once it’s 100%, but not yet as they are not the drivers we are for intervening purposes
I started illegally driving at 16 and very skilled at intervening FSD
Can’t wait for 11.4.7
 
It's just.. so weird.

Yesterday, the SO and I piled into our 2018 M3 with FSD-b and took a trip from Central Jersey to this, "It's near the Delaware River, so it's full of cutesy gift shops" on the Pennsylvania side, "Peddlar's Village".

Not a bad place. Food was a bit high priced, though, so drove from there to New Hope, which actually is on the Delaware. And from there to home.

Let's see: local roads in Central Jersey (this is, like congestion, for those who don't know) onto a 3/4 lane interstate, left exit some distance up onto one of thse vaguely country, two lanes in each direction, with the occasional stop light; through a toll booth onto the Pennsylvania side, then another ten or twelve miles to this village thing, relatively fast two-lane road.. Horrors: the car wanted me to turn right into what looked like a lane, so I intervened. The first intervention that day. And the car was right: That was the lane into one of the big parking lots. Had to dodge considerable foot traffic to get into the same lot a couple hundred yards up and on the right. (I could have let FSD-b dodge the pedestrians.. but there are Limits, here.) Oh, yeah: The autopark worked fine.

On the way back, figuring the foot traffic wasn't worth the risk, got back on the two-lane road and let FSD-b do its thing to the restaurant. It did a decent job all the way to Downtown and, with roughly the same amount of foot traffic as back in Peddlar's Village, took over again and parked.

After dinner, rather than going over the toll bridge, turned left, instead, then hung a left over the ancient bridge across the Delaware, then stop-and-go through the town on the Jersey side. When got out of downtown there, hung a left and let FSD-b do its thing. All the way home, two-way country roads, 50 mph, 55 on the four-lane roads, traffic circles, off ramps, on ramps, back onto the interstate and home. No interventions.

About 90 miles of driving. I think one phantom brake experience, but the car was possibly looking at somebody coming up fast on the right and got cautious.

FSD-b didn't try to kill anyone. A bit jerky at times, sure. And, sure, it doesn't drive the same way I do.

Don't quite get it. If one reads this sub-forum, one gets the idea that the FSD-b is completely unreliable, a threat to public safety, full of bugs, and dangerous as all get out. On the other hand, I just drove 90 (or the car drove, you guys pick it) miles in a five year-old Tesla Model 3 with the Gen 3 computer, an upgrade. Yeah, the car's got RADAR and the USS, but those aren't even supposed to be turned on in 11.4.4.

I'll admit that this car can get in trouble sometimes. There's this red light-controlled intersection that it likes to run, probably because of some flickering issue. There's a particular unprotected left turn that, on my side, has room to let other cars through on the right, but the car moves right-ward, blocking traffic. On a particular on-ramp, if there's heavy traffic in the travel lane the car has trouble getting over, especially as the merge area is pretty short. So, bugs. But life-threatening? Nope.

Something about these older cars that work better than the newer ones? Dunno.
No, I think there are several people who are eternal pessimists and feel the need to share their unhappiness by spamming the thread with how bad things are in the hopes of making everyone else as unhappy as they are.
 
No, I think there are several people who are eternal pessimists and feel the need to share their unhappiness by spamming the thread with how bad things are in the hopes of making everyone else as unhappy as they are.
Yeah. And there's a word for that type of person. And the cause, often, is, "For the yuks." Other causes are much nastier.

I sure hope that's not happening here. Too much of that kind of thing can, well, destroy a subforum as a useful source of information.