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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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And there it is, folks. Tesla has updated their order page so that FSD is no longer coming later this year/soon. It’s now available. It’s done. They’re actually selling this garbage as if it’s a finished product. 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Well done, Tesla. 🙄🤦🏻‍♂️

Interesting that it still lists summon and autopark as features in “feature details” when 3/4 vehicles don’t support it at this moment. The only way you’ll find out after dropping your deposit is the email/app pop up letting you know Tesla vision replaces the legacy sensors and it’ll be brought back someday.
 
11.4.7 tried to drive me into a wall while merging on a highway today. I have done this merge numerous times in other versions but it never tried to drive me into a wall. Yesterday, it started making an unprotected left turn while there were still cars coming from the opposite direction. It almost hit another car. Luckily I intervened in time.

This is a lousy update.

It also nearly just stopped in the middle of the road a couple of times for no apparent reason. Not really phantom braking but it stopped like there was a STOP-sign when there was really nothing going on.

Why is it so hard to make the blinker work properly? How many times it does it indicate for no reason and how many times does it NOT indicate at all like on roundabouts?

All the hype about V12 being the real one. I don't know anymore.
 
11.4.7 tried to drive me into a wall while merging on a highway today. I have done this merge numerous times in other versions but it never tried to drive me into a wall. Yesterday, it started making an unprotected left turn while there were still cars coming from the opposite direction. It almost hit another car. Luckily I intervened in time.

This is a lousy update.

It also nearly just stopped in the middle of the road a couple of times for no apparent reason. Not really phantom braking but it stopped like there was a STOP-sign when there was really nothing going on.

Why is it so hard to make the blinker work properly? How many times it does it indicate for no reason and how many times does it NOT indicate at all like on roundabouts?

All the hype about V12 being the real one. I don't know anymore.
It's never happening. Just watch V12 will come out and will also be junk, just like V11, V10 etc...
 
Wonder what kind of filtering process they are using to “feed” the video into v12? I can’t imagine feeding everything is going to produce a desirable result and if nothing else confuse it. So many people drive so many different ways. If 95% of people roll through a stop sign, and only 5% stop, how would it know to stop unless there was a hard coded rule to do so? I feel like there are way more drivers that operate in a grey area that would definitely be considered breaking the law. Unless they only take video from drivers when they are in front of a police officer. :)
 
Wonder what kind of filtering process they are using to “feed” the video into v12? I can’t imagine feeding everything is going to produce a desirable result and if nothing else confuse it. So many people drive so many different ways. If 95% of people roll through a stop sign, and only 5% stop, how would it know to stop unless there was a hard coded rule to do so? I feel like there are way more drivers that operate in a grey area that would definitely be considered breaking the law. Unless they only take video from drivers when they are in front of a police officer. :)
Elon talks about this during his recent v12 live demo. Starts talking about their "data curation" 14:30, and the exact example you bring up at 18:00. According to the passenger the number of people who come to a full stop is less than 0.5% so they are forced to hunt for good video. Probably why they recently started hiring test drivers - jus so they could increase the amount of video of people following the law.
 
It does look promising
In what way?

It doesn’t look any more promising than what we have. Try watching it muted.

I can say with high confidence there is just not going to be L4/L5 with HW3 or HW4. Not happening. Ever.

I’d say you heard it here first but that would not be true.

Remains to be seen if there can ever be any reasonable utility for an L2 City Streets feature. Which now apparently exists, though you could have fooled me. Just not sure whether the whole concept makes any sense.
 
In what way?....
Not so much the actual demo drive but the way it is fundamentally different. With adding all the "rules" in code we are just running up against computational power limits. Now we use both cores (one was supposed to be redundancy) near their max and they are at least 100k more "rules" that would need to be programed in. V12 looks like it could eliminate all this code and just work off of natural learning which is more like the way we learn and drive.

While the demo is far from perfect the behaviors of the car is FAR different than the jerky robotic way our car's drive. Also working on so little code using so little power.

Only time will tell but for the first time I see a possible glimmer of hope that a path to L3 may exist. BUT only a glimmer.
 
Here's a new one. FSDb stopped at a no turn on red that it has never obeyed before, and actually waited for the green light. In my disbelief, I went reroutes to a "regular" red light, and it turned on red, then looped back again to the no turn on red, and it stayed stopped. There are 2 more of these no turn on red locations and a stop except right turn that I want to try next. These unexpected no update changes are crazy.
 
Here's a new one. FSDb stopped at a no turn on red that it has never obeyed before, and actually waited for the green light. In my disbelief, I went reroutes to a "regular" red light, and it turned on red, then looped back again to the no turn on red, and it stayed stopped. There are 2 more of these no turn on red locations and a stop except right turn that I want to try next. These unexpected no update changes are crazy.
Could it be a map data update?
 
Here is one crazy a$$ maneuver 11.4.7 ❤️ to do every time now. What rule can it be following to drive on the wrong side of a yellow line. The "Think I'm in Great Britain now" rule.

And please, this CAN'T just be Map Data. The line/lane construction blocking has been this way for almost a year and FSD Beta used to handle it fine. And just to add this is a common route used by probably over ½ of Tesla's to a 30 stall Supercharger.

 
Here is one crazy a$$ maneuver 11.4.7 ❤️ to do every time now. What rule can it be following to drive on the wrong side of a yellow line. The "Think I'm in Great Britain now" rule.

And please, this CAN'T just be Map Data. The line/lane construction blocking has been this way for almost a year and FSD Beta used to handle it fine. And just to add this is a common route used by probably over ½ of Tesla's to a 30 stall Supercharger.

Hard coded to not cross the line from the side, left and right, and because it approached and crossed from the front maybe it became stuck? That's a weird one.
 
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I’ve never received any response from FSDBETA, even when sending in video and details of the car running red lights, running a stop sign, jerking into oncoming lanes for no reason, driving 3-4 ft from the center line. Has ANYONE ever heard from fsdbeta?
Just as another data point, no, I haven’t. I’ve sent a dozen or so since joining beta (I was in the first batch of Safety Score guys).
 
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