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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


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Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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There are no rocket launches with FSDb unless you use the accelerator.

There's one scenario where FSDb consistently accelerates quickly for me: Turning left out of a parking lot onto a main road. While in the parking lot, my +9% offset goes 16 out of 15 MPH. Shortly after a left turn onto a 35 MPH road, it changes the set speed to 38 MPH and floors it to quickly catch up.

But this is only on the straight, not during the turn. And I'm guessing it would do something similar if you manually changed the set speed from 16 to 38.
 
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I agree, the vaporware and the belief of future functionality has really enhance Teslas bottom line. Also government subsidies, sucking on those tax credits. Elon stated very clearly in the video I posted if they don’t get full self driving working, Tesla is basically worthless. I guess the question is have they got it working and will they get it working? Mostly advances in reduce components, motor, reliability, battery, longevity, and no motor helping out your crash rating is common among all EVs. Tesla has full self driving and superchargers. The superchargers are being opened up, for government subsidies to be profitable gas stations for Teslas.
A lot to unpack here.

There are two camps here on TMC: one that says the take rate for FSD is very low (sub 10%), and the other that things it's much higher. If the take rate is low, then how does it affect Tesla profits? It means most people are buying the car for the car, and not for FSD.

For Elon's comment about being worthless, why do people choose to believe this statement from him but not others? I find it interesting what people pick and choose to believe from him. His EVs are very profitable, and Tesla started turning a profit in 2020. How long they can maintain their margins as other mfgs ramp up, they should be fine. It's the ROI on their investment that will be interesting.

For the supercharger network, Tesla opened up some of it to continue getting subsidized on the EV front. All EV mfgs are being subsidized by the US government to further the technology and help the shift to greener technology. Chargepoint and Electrify America are getting subsidized too to help increase the charging network. Those networks are designed to turn a profit, like gas stations.
 
I agree, the vaporware and the belief of future functionality has really enhance Teslas bottom line. Also government subsidies, sucking on those tax credits. Elon stated very clearly in the video I posted if they don’t get full self driving working, Tesla is basically worthless. I guess the question is have they got it working and will they get it working? Mostly advances in reduce components, motor, reliability, battery, longevity, and no motor helping out your crash rating is common among all EVs. Tesla has full self driving and superchargers. The superchargers are being opened up, for government subsidies to be profitable gas stations for Teslas.
So you don’t believe Elon’s promises relating to FSD but you do believe them when they relate to Tesla’s worth without FSD?

Edit: ditto everything @Dewg said.
 
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I’d love to see a video or at least some datapoints of speed vs time.

There are no rocket launches with FSDb unless you use the accelerator.


11.4.7.2 still does not support flashing red lights for disabled multi-lane intersections. Sad. Not sure how it is supposed to be helpful if it can’t handle simple situations.

I’m curious how it would have handled the light which I encountered at Pomerado Rd westbound at I-15 the other day (it was 6AM so still dark) which was completely disabled. I was just tooling along and then realized there was no light where there should be one. The car turning in front of me in the distance also alerted/reminded me. Definitely something FSD will need to handle flawlessly. Sadly (or maybe fortunately) I was not using it. Probably would have slowed down since it is using HD maps, that is what I have seen in the past, but hard to know for sure. As it was I slammed on the hazards for tailing traffic and came to a slightly faster stop than normal.

At this point FSDb is boring. It seems to have pretty much reached the asymptote at this point.
Yeah - I never had a rocket launch before, either. Typically it’s pretty timid with its acceleration, no faster or even slower than most drivers and slow enough that I’ll frequently goose the accelerator a bit just to be considerate of people behind me, but yesterday it decided to mix things up for no clear reason. I was the first car turning left with a green arrow So there was no hurry and no traffic to beat. Even my daughter said “woah! What was that?”

I’m not sure why FSD hasn’t learned how to handle flashing red lights yet. It can see flashing yellow lights and flashing reds are quite common. The ‘dead light’ scenario is more difficult. IME most humans treat it as a flashing by red/4 way stop, but often it’s at a larger intersection and traffic is generallly a mess and the humans don’t do too great, either. How do you train the car to handle something we can’t handle?
 
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Yeah - I never had a rocket launch before, either. Typically it’s pretty timid with its acceleration, no faster or even slower than most drivers and slow enough that I’ll frequently goose the accelerator a bit just to be considerate of people behind me, but yesterday it decided to mix things up for no clear reason. I was the first car turning left with a green arrow So there was no hurry and no traffic to beat. Even my daughter said “woah! What was that?”

I’m not sure why FSD hasn’t learned how to handle flashing red lights yet. It can see flashing yellow lights and flashing reds are quite common. The ‘dead light’ scenario is more difficult. IME most humans treat it as a flashing by red/4 way stop, but often it’s at a larger intersection and traffic is generallly a mess as the humans don’t do too great, either. How do you train the car to handle something we can’t handle?
"I’m not sure why FSD hasn’t learned how to handle flashing red lights yet."

There is another situation FSD cannot handle yet: throttle lights on ramp to freeway. My car usually run the red light every time I enter the freeways.
Red/green lights on both sides or in front of of multiple lane ramps to freeways change very fast even human drivers cannot catch up and miss the turn to enter freeway.

For normal stop light situation I think FSD handle extremely well. In CA, FSD handles yellow light beautifully at the intersection on high speed roads.
 
"I’m not sure why FSD hasn’t learned how to handle flashing red lights yet."

There is another situation FSD cannot handle yet: throttle lights on ramp to freeway. My car usually run the red light every time I enter the freeways.
Red/green lights on both sides or in front of of multiple lane ramps to freeways change very fast even human drivers cannot catch up and miss the turn to enter freeway.

For normal stop light situation I think FSD handle extremely well. In CA, FSD handles yellow light beautifully at the intersection on high speed roads.
most of the time when I encounter these they're flashing yellow. With previous versions of FSD I could feel it tapping on the brakes each time the yellow came on, then accelerating again when it flashed off. Now it goes through without an issue. The few occasions I've encountered them when they're on I've disengaged as there are always 2 lines and FSD doesn't seem to know how to pick a side.
 
Interesting. I don’t think hw4 would matter one way or another (yet) but I’m on day 2 of some impressive fsdriving. Not perfect but the main improvement starting yesterday is gradual slowdowns/improved path planning. My navigation sw updated ~5 days ago but I didn’t see this improvement until yesterday. Others with hw4 have similar experience?
Jeez why is it taking so long for Tesla to push the NAVI updates!! I’m convinced the turning lane drift is directly related to this. It’s my biggest issue right now with FSD
 
At this point FSDb is boring. It seems to have pretty much reached the asymptote at this point.

The v11.x release path has turned into a steaming POS. I rarely use it for fear of an accident, ticket, or frustration induced road rage. Wide open freeways were once the saving grace but now I experience an occasional phantom braking. And for the love of gawd after all this time why not slow sooner for traffic lights? They don't seem to give a crap about the product they produce.
 
Well I must have scared the Tesla Gods into submission. Just got the map updates. Going to take it for a spin and see if there is any improvement.
I’m betting no. Diving into turn lanes has been a problem since at least the beginning of version 10 and map updates haven’t fixed it until now. It’s gotten slowly better with successive FSD releases but it seems to be a FSD fix, not a NAV data fix.
 
The v11.x release path has turned into a steaming POS. I rarely use it for fear of an accident, ticket, or frustration induced road rage. Wide open freeways were once the saving grace but now I experience an occasional phantom braking. And for the love of gawd after all this time why not slow sooner for traffic lights? They don't seem to give a crap about the product they produce.
I think Alan’s right and I’m guessing Tesla is focusing its efforts on V12 rather than further attempts at refining v11.

For me 11.3.6 was probably the best version. The more recent releases seem to be incrementally worse. I still get quite a bit of use out of it, though, despite its issues.
 
I’m betting no. Diving into turn lanes has been a problem since at least the beginning of version 10 and map updates haven’t fixed it until now. It’s gotten slowly better with successive FSD releases but it seems to be a FSD fix, not a NAV data fix.
I have issues with turn lanes that have existed long before Tesla, so I doubt that any map update is going to fix this issue.
 
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The v11.x release path has turned into a steaming POS. I rarely use it for fear of an accident, ticket, or frustration induced road rage. Wide open freeways were once the saving grace but now I experience an occasional phantom braking. And for the love of gawd after all this time why not slow sooner for traffic lights? They don't seem to give a crap about the product they produce.


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I had my first wet wipe today. Dry sky. Dirty windshield. I activated FSDb 11.4.4 then it drove for a bit. It convienetly waited until stopped at a light before activating the washer spray and did a few wipes. All good the rest of the drive.
Are you saying the car activated the washer spray on its own? I've never seen that before.