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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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So I'm curious, I re-subbed for Thanksgiving Road trip, FSD is still pretty crappy on city streets, whatever, already unsubbed, no big deal.

The question, With FSD Beta 11.4.4 (I'm on 2023.32.9) in the main branch, do we still get updates or is it now blocked by the 11.4.7 (2023.27) branch since I'm a subscriber/FSD user
 
Perhaps one thing we can all agree on - the current hardware is inadequate for "real" FSD.
No - as they say "never say never".

But I do have doubts whether FSD can be achieved in the useful lifetime of early Model 3s. My Model 3 is 5 years old - let us say it can be used for 5 more years. Will FSD be possible in 5 years ?

Either way, I'm sure in 5 years FSD will be far better than it is today. With the exception of roundabouts, its already quite useful for me. I've used FSD a LOT more than the Level 3 CHAdeMO charging I used on my first EV - Nissan Leaf 2011. I think I used it about 3 times and paid $2k for the SL option (?).
 
So I'm curious, I re-subbed for Thanksgiving Road trip, FSD is still pretty crappy on city streets, whatever, already unsubbed, no big deal.

The question, With FSD Beta 11.4.4 (I'm on 2023.32.9) in the main branch, do we still get updates or is it now blocked by the 11.4.7 (2023.27) branch since I'm a subscriber/FSD user
There's two more-or-less parallel branches going on at the moment. For the "true" beta testers who've been getting the latest and greatest, there's the main firmware version of 2023.27.[x] which, at the moment, has x=7 and has 11.4.7.3; there's also a branch with 2023.7.30 and has 11.4.7 on it.

There's another branch of 2023.38.x that has various "mainline" changes (fast emergency light blinking, improvements on SuperCharger stuff) that has 11.4.4; the .38 branch was preceeded by 2023.32.[6,7,9], all of which have 11.4.4 baked in.

A good place to get a vague idea of which way things are going is at Teslafi, TeslaFi.com Firmware Tracker. There's about 19.3k cars involved in the tracking, some of which appear to be Tesla employees, and some of which appear to be factory loads (z.y.[100-200]).

The one thing that we all seem to have seen is that, in general, there's No Going Back, Anywhere. So, if one has a (say) 2023.38.6 load with 11.4.4, then one won't be getting 2023.27.7 with 11.4.7.3. Further, if one is on 11.4.7.3 with load 2023.27.7, one won't be going to 2023.38.6 since, even if the main firmware load is a bigger number, it would mean going backwards on the FSD-b load numbers, which won't happen, either.

Note that Tesla doesn't say anything about any of this. It's all observations by those of us outside the company.

Once or maybe thrice a year the FSD-b people on the real Beta stuff (like, 11.4.7.x at the moment) get a main firmware load that lets them play with the neater creature features that the mainline types have been getting. It's pretty much a gimmie that this happens at least once around Christmas; but there were people with the Beta who were running "base" loads dating back to 2022 in August.

As I've said before in this thread, the update management for firmware sounds like a really complicated job over at Tesla.
 
Further, if one is on 11.4.7.3 with load 2023.27.7, one won't be going to 2023.38.6 since, even if the main firmware load is a bigger number, it would mean going backwards on the FSD-b load numbers, which won't happen, either.
But it HAS happened, to me at least 😉

Back in July, after requesting to leave the bleeding edge beta, I went from 2023.7.20 (with FSD 11.4.4) to 2023.20.8 (with FSD 11.3.6, which I personally think has been the best FSD build so far).
 
No - as they say "never say never".

But I do have doubts whether FSD can be achieved in the useful lifetime of early Model 3s. My Model 3 is 5 years old - let us say it can be used for 5 more years. Will FSD be possible in 5 years ?

Either way, I'm sure in 5 years FSD will be far better than it is today. With the exception of roundabouts, its already quite useful for me. I've used FSD a LOT more than the Level 3 CHAdeMO charging I used on my first EV - Nissan Leaf 2011. I think I used it about 3 times and paid $2k for the SL option (?).
Depends on your definition for real FSD. If you want a car that will never get into accidents (as somebody at Tesla claimed) that could be prevented with better placed cameras or radar(s) (like creeping into intersections) or a car that parks itself (as you claimed a year ago), then current hardware is inadequate. If you want a car that will get you from A to B while running a human-like chance of getting into accidents then like you said, let's see in five years.
 
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But it HAS happened, to me at least 😉

Back in July, after requesting to leave the bleeding edge beta, I went from 2023.7.20 (with FSD 11.4.4) to 2023.20.8 (with FSD 11.3.6, which I personally think has been the best FSD build so far).
No argument there. It's like the 800-lbs gorilla: It sits where it wants. If the Official People At Tesla Want Something To Happen, They Can Make It That Way.

As it happens, I took advantage of that trade-in-your-old-car-for-a-new-one-and-transfer-FSD trick in late September. The old car, a 2018 M3 LR RWD had been running some variant of 11.4.7.x; I think "x" was 3 or something. And it worked, although it occasionally played silly buggers with the windshield wipers. (Not as bad as some around here have had it.)

The new one, a 2023 M3 LR AWD came with 11.3.7, I think: And I really noticed Just How Bad That Was. My traditional complaint around these parts is that FSD has a tendency to swing wide right on left turns. Occasionally, this has been bad enough that cars behind me in traffic try to pass one on the left as one is swinging right, all the way to within a foot or so of the curb. The trend over time has been to do less of that swing; but, with FSD, that whole "suppress weird swings" has been a kind of work in progress.

Second drive I had with the new one with that 11.3.7 load surprised me on a left turn; it swung so far to the right, somewhat unexpectedly (since the older car hadn't been doing that), that a car really did pass me on the left. I had to brake, stop, wait for traffic to clear (with more traffic coming up behind me in the "lane" I was in, then get over. Dangerous. After that, I was aware and started taking over when the car started making that signature move to the right on a left.

And discovered that left and right turns on city streets were a lot jerkier than they had been.

Then, over the next week or so, the factory load on the car got replaced with a load with 11.4.4. And it was back to the better times. A lot less jerky; still swings a bit, but not nearly as bad; and the map update to the 2023 variant seems to have helped, too.

So, I don't think that the 11.3.x loads are that great, frankly. I'm willing to believe that the regressions on the 11.4.7.x branch make life bad for people; but the 11.4.4 branch seems not to have those really bad regressions.
 
I completed a 700 mile trip with the latest FSD Beta that all highway. Here are the problems I encountered on the highway:
1) A bad navigation decision where it wanted to take the wrong highway. Specifically I was in Indianapolis, on I70W, heading to Ohio but FSD beta wanted to move over to the right lane which becomes the exit for I65 to Chicago. So FSD beta's navigation was completely wrong.
2) Bad phantom braking. It was a perfect sunny day, straight road but FSD Beta would just suddenly start slowing down. One phantom braking was especially hard, it scared the crap out of me. I disengaged and immediately slammed on the accelerated to avoid being rear ended by the semi truck behind me.
3) FSD beta cut off a big semi truck. It wanted to change lanes and there was a semi truck in my blind spot and it mad the lane change but right in front of the semi to the point where the driver of the semi honked at me loudly because it almost rear ended me.
4) A few instances where it needed to change lanes but it was rush hour traffic so I disengaged because I felt like I could do the merge better. I just was not sure if FSD beta could do the lane change in time to not miss the route because of all the traffic in the adjacent lane.

The vast majority of the trip was great but those were a few scary disengagements.
 
I completed a 700 mile trip with the latest FSD Beta that all highway. Here are the problems I encountered on the highway:
1) A bad navigation decision where it wanted to take the wrong highway. Specifically I was in Indianapolis, on I70W, heading to Ohio but FSD beta wanted to move over to the right lane which becomes the exit for I65 to Chicago. So FSD beta's navigation was completely wrong.
2) Bad phantom braking. It was a perfect sunny day, straight road but FSD Beta would just suddenly start slowing down. One phantom braking was especially hard, it scared the crap out of me. I disengaged and immediately slammed on the accelerated to avoid being rear ended by the semi truck behind me.
3) FSD beta cut off a big semi truck. It wanted to change lanes and there was a semi truck in my blind spot and it mad the lane change but right in front of the semi to the point where the driver of the semi honked at me loudly because it almost rear ended me.
4) A few instances where it needed to change lanes but it was rush hour traffic so I disengaged because I felt like I could do the merge better. I just was not sure if FSD beta could do the lane change in time to not miss the route because of all the traffic in the adjacent lane.

The vast majority of the trip was great but those were a few scary disengagements.
“Safer than a human,” my @$$! 🤨
 
Depends on your definition for real FSD. If you want a car that will never get into accidents (as somebody at Tesla claimed) that could be prevented with better placed cameras or radar(s) (like creeping into intersections) or a car that parks itself (as you claimed a year ago), then current hardware is inadequate. If you want a car that will get you from A to B while running a human-like chance of getting into accidents then like you said, let's see in five years.
Definition of FSD is actually quite simple - hands off / eyes off the road. Point to point.

May be not all over the world or interstate or ... but, atleast should be in large geographic areas.
 
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The old car, a 2018 M3 LR RWD had been running some variant of 11.4.7.x; I think "x" was 3 or something. And it worked, although it occasionally played silly buggers with the windshield wipers. (Not as bad as some around here have had it.)
One would think if the car has seen a lot of San Francisco, it would know the difference between fog and rain. But today it was repeatedly wiping dry because of thick fog.
 
One would think if the car has seen a lot of San Francisco, it would know the difference between fog and rain. But today it was repeatedly wiping dry because of thick fog.
Drove through a near-hurricane in central Connecticut with the variant that was supposed to have windshield wiper problems. Mist, fog, heavy rain, semis kicking up water, you name it; then, drying out over the last 70-mile leg into Beantown. Not a miss on the wipers.

On the way back, clear, sunny: Two incidents where it did a couple of dry wipes for no discernible reason, then stopped doing that.

No clue as to why that car wasn't having the, "Dry wipe for a dozen miles" that people around here have reported.

Am on 11.4.4 now, with a 2023 M3 LR; and no funky wipes at all. Sheesh.
 
I completed a 700 mile trip with the latest FSD Beta that all highway. Here are the problems I encountered on the highway:
1) A bad navigation decision where it wanted to take the wrong highway. Specifically I was in Indianapolis, on I70W, heading to Ohio but FSD beta wanted to move over to the right lane which becomes the exit for I65 to Chicago. So FSD beta's navigation was completely wrong.
2) Bad phantom braking. It was a perfect sunny day, straight road but FSD Beta would just suddenly start slowing down. One phantom braking was especially hard, it scared the crap out of me. I disengaged and immediately slammed on the accelerated to avoid being rear ended by the semi truck behind me.
3) FSD beta cut off a big semi truck. It wanted to change lanes and there was a semi truck in my blind spot and it mad the lane change but right in front of the semi to the point where the driver of the semi honked at me loudly because it almost rear ended me.
4) A few instances where it needed to change lanes but it was rush hour traffic so I disengaged because I felt like I could do the merge better. I just was not sure if FSD beta could do the lane change in time to not miss the route because of all the traffic in the adjacent lane.

The vast majority of the trip was great but those were a few scary disengagements.
Was the map navigation correct and FSD failed to follow it or was the map also wrong? If the map was wrong it would seem to be more of a 'garbage in garbage out' situation. If the map was right then it's clearly a FSD failure. (I've had both occur)

I'm a bit surprised at the semi truck incident. In my experience the merging hasn't been reckless. More the opposite - times when it needs to be more aggressive it isn't.
 
Was the map navigation correct and FSD failed to follow it or was the map also wrong? If the map was wrong it would seem to be more of a 'garbage in garbage out' situation. If the map was right then it's clearly a FSD failure. (I've had both occur)

The map navigation was also wrong because it showed the blue line on the nav map as taking the road to Chicago. And on the screen that the car should move to the right to "follow route". And FSD beta followed that. So it would say "changing lanes to follow route" and try to move over to the right. But I could clearly see the overhead sign saying that I was in the exit lane for I65 Chicago. So I disengaged and moved back into the lane to stay on I70W.

It was also a bit funny to see my "car" on the nav map still following the other route and then a few minutes later, the map nav would update and the blue line would snap back to my actual route. So maybe it is a GPS issue where the car does not know where it is?

So yeah, FSD Beta seemed to just be following bad map data. But I still count that as a failure of FSD. Autonomous driving needs to be able to follow the correct route and not try to take you to Chicago, IL when you are going to Columbus, OH. LOL.

The bad map data is especially egregious IMO because this is not a case of some weird construction zone where they changed the lanes. This was a normal drive on a perfect sunny day, on a clearly marked multi lane highway with a big overhead sign that says 2 left lanes I70W (Dayton), 2 right lanes I65 (Chicago). You can't miss it.
 
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I would like to add the following:

Few days ago I was driving on 405N/105W to try to go to the LAX cellphone parking lot. I was on FSDb when I got onto 105W and heading to the Sepulveda N exit. Suddently my Navigation started announcing to take an earlier exit, I disengage and drive manually. The Navigation continue to direct me onto local streets. When I check the display, my location arrow was offset to my actual location. This continued until I reached the cellphone lot. I did a reset. The location error was still there until I circled around the lot.

I don't know whether the GPS error will affect FSDb or not and how. I have also experienced GPS errors on my Android phone while playing golf. So is the Homeland Security Agency monkeying around with the Satellites?