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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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No offense, but would would trade a vibration free car over another release of junk, any day!
Ran an errand the other day on the highway for a while and FSDb highway sure 'ping pongs' compared to AP highway. AP highway was excellent at staying steady no matter the crosswinds or faded lines or whatever. It was unclear why FSDb highway was wobbly ... both the spouse and I noticed it. I've felt it on a few roadtrips before too.
 
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Depends on your definition for real FSD. If you want a car that will never get into accidents (as somebody at Tesla claimed) that could be prevented with better placed cameras or radar(s) (like creeping into intersections) or a car that parks itself (as you claimed a year ago), then current hardware is inadequate. If you want a car that will get you from A to B while running a human-like chance of getting into accidents then like you said, let's see in five years.
Nonsense.
 
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When they say "FSD is x% better than humans" do they really mean "FSD with safety driver" or FSD alone?

Tesla has played some stats fairly loosely.
I do not think Tesla will reach level 2 when it is raining or ever reach level 5 with Tesla Vision. I say this even though I love my Model S and tell people it is the best car I have ever owned.

When I purchased FSD on my 2016 S90D, Tesla told us that if you owned FSD, you would be able to subscribe to RoboTaxi in the future. If you signed up for RoboTaxi, you could drive your car to work and while you are working, if your Tesla could receive a RoboTaxi request, your Tesla would drive to pick up the person and take them where they want to go. If another RoboTaxi request came it, your Tesla would continue to accept these requests until it needed to return to your work location so you could drive home. There was also a prototype charging capability at a Supercharger that would automatically charge your Tesla before returning to work if you needed a charge to go home.

In October 2016, Elon Musk said a Tesla vehicle would be able to drive itself across the country by the end of 2017 using Full Self Driving. The prototype automated charging capability at Superchargers would be used so that it would not require a driver to charge the car. As of today, this as never happened.

II traded in my 2016 S90D that had radar and ultrasonic sensors. I now own a Tesla 2023 LR with FSD 11.4.7.3 installed. Within the past week I have had the follow issues with FSD.
  • When it is raining and the cameras get wet, you will get a message that says poor weather and FSD may be degraded. When this happens, FSD will slow the car down by 10 mph. If it rains harder, FSD will disengage and Enhanced Auto Pilot will engage. If it rains even harder, Enhanced Auto Pilot will disengage and Auto Pilot will engage. If a Tesla with FSD cannot reliably drive in rain without disengaging, it will never reach level 2 much less level 5.

  • A few days ago, I took 250 mile trip when it was cloudy and not raining. I got the poor weather message and that FSD may be degraded. FSD did not disengage but I should have never gotten these messages when it was not raining.

    Elon said that Tesla could reach level 5 without using Lidar. This is when Elon said that Radar, Ultrasonic Sensors. and Cameras would allow Tesla to reach level 5. Removing Radar and Ultrasonic sensors has greatly decreased FSD's capability. Radar and Ultrasonic sensors were removed to cut costs.

  • Yesterday, I had FSD engaged to drive me to Home Depot. The highway I was on before reaching Home Depot had 3 lanes each way with a turn lane in the middle. FSD waited too long to get into the middle turn lane before the left turn into the Home Depot drive way. It was rush hour and there were cars in all three lanes of on coming traffic. FSD did not see the on coming traffic and jerked the car to the left to turn into the driveway. I had to disengage FSD to keep from having a head on collision with 3 lanes of traffic driving at 45 mph.
Elon, is talking about developing a RoboTaxi vehicle. It will be interesting to see if radar, maybe Lidar, and Ultrasonic sensors will return to achieve level 5. All current Teslas should have the same proposed hardware that is going to be in the new RoboTaxi vehicle.

I purchased FSD seven years ago and I do not believe it will ever reach level 5 especially if it is raining. If anyone asks me if they should buy FSD, I recommend only buying Enhanced Autopilot.
 
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I do not think Tesla will reach level 2 when it is raining or ever reach level 5 with Tesla Vision. I say this even though I love my Model S and tell people it is the best car I have ever owned.

When I purchased FSD on my 2016 S90D, Tesla told us that if you owned FSD, you would be able to subscribe to RoboTaxi in the future. If you signed up for RoboTaxi, you could drive your car to work and while you are working, if your Tesla could recive a RoboTaxi request, your Tesla would drive to pick up the person and take them where they want to go. If another RoboTaxi request came it, your Tesla would continue to accept these requests until it needed to return to your work location so you could drive home. There was also a prototype charging capability at a Supeercharger that would automotatically charge your Tesla before returning to work if you needed a charge to go home.

II traded in my 2016 S90D that had radar and ultrasonic sensors. I now own a Tesla 2023 LR with FSD 11.4.7.3 installed. Within the past week I have had the follow issues with FSD.


  • When it is raining and the cameras get wet, you will get a message that says poor weather and FSD may be degraded. When this happens, FSD will slow the car down by 10 mph. If it rains harder, FSD will disengage and Enhanced Auto Pilot will engage. If it rains even harder, Enhanced Auto Pilot will disengage and Auto Pilot will engage. If a Tesla with FSD cannot reliabily drive in rain without disengaging, it will never reach level 2 much less level 5.

  • A few days ago, I took 250 mile trip when it was cloudy and not raining. I got the poor weather message and that FSD may be degraded. FSD did not disengage but I should have never gotten these messages when it was not raining.

    Elon said that Tesla could reach level 5 without using Lidar. This is when Elon said that Radar, Ultrasonic Sensors. and Cameras would allow Tesla to reach level 5. Removing Radar and Ultrasonic sensors has greatly decreased FSD's capability. Radar and Ultrasonic sensors were removed to cut costs.

  • Yesterday, I had FSD engaged to drive me to Home Depot. The highway I was on before reaching Home Depot had 3 lanes each way with a turn lane in the middle. FSD waited too long to get into the middle turn lane before the left turn into the Home Depot drive way. It was rush hour and there were cars in all three lanes of on coming traffic. FSD did not see the on comming traffic and jerked the car to the left to turn into the driveway. I had to disengage FSD to keep from having a head on collision with 3 lanes of traffic driving at 45 mph.
Elon, is talking about developing a RoboTaxi vehicle. It will be interesting to see if radar, maybe Lidar, and Ultrasonic sensors will return to achieve level 5. All current Teslas should have the same proposed hardware that is going to be in the new RoboTaxi vehicle.

I purchased FSD seven years ago and I do not believe it will ever reach level 5 especially if it is raining. If anyone asks me if they should buy FSD, I recommend only buying Enhanced Autopilot.
Zero disagreement with anything you say. Personally had all the same experiences as you have. Many of us here also experience the same.
 
Not really; it's an unreliable L2. Subaru Eyesight L2, for example, is much more reliable and predicable than this Tesla L2 stuff.
Isn’t that the definition of L2? Or are we back to cherry picking features that one does better than the other?
Sure, 11.7.3 has some stupidity issues, but highway lane keeping is excellent as are a great many features. Overall it’s pretty good.
I definitely complain when it fails, but also don’t paint it as completely unusable.
 
Because it doesn’t do anything remotely close to what FSD is trying to do. It’s like comparing an old “feature” phone to a modern smart phone.
Was just stating the facts. OP exaggerated. L2 to L2 features compared was my point. Of course FSDj is trying to do more, but even the basic ones are unpredictable.
 
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Isn’t that the definition of L2? Or are we back to cherry picking features that one does better than the other?
Sure, 11.7.3 has some stupidity issues, but highway lane keeping is excellent as are a great many features. Overall it’s pretty good.
I definitely complain when it fails, but also don’t paint it as completely unusable.
Tesla L2 lacks even the basic primitive L2 features, like Rear Cross Traffic Alerting. Never let the facts ruin a good story, I say… 🤣

Edit: And please don’t put words in my mouth to make your argument seem valid. I never said Tesla L2 was “unusable”. I said it was unreliable and unpredictable, which it definitely is.
 
Or it can use the repeater camera at an angle while creeping, mine does this on some hard intersections.
How does this work in your opinion? The repeater camera faces mostly backwards and the car would have to turn far to the right to get more visibility on a left turn. It's an interesting conjecture on your part, but I've never had my car do that on a 90° intersection.
 
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How does this work in your opinion? The repeater camera faces mostly backwards and the car would have to turn far to the right to get more visibility on a left turn. It's an interesting conjecture on your part, but I've never had my car do that on a 90° intersection.
It does it all the time when you enter the middle of a divided road and it poses or moves the car enough so the repeater knows when it's clear. Or at least it's attempting to do that. Chuck's UPLs are the prime example.

Regular intersections, it would need a lot of room to consistently pull off this maneuver.
 
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