FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

[willow_hiller]

lol i'm talking about the tesla community in general (including twitter, reddit, etc). I cant take anyone who says Level 5 will be here in 6 months and then 1 month already passed and they can't acknowledge it. Nothing is taken factually or logically.

I hope you understand where the mindset comes from, at least. In August 2018 Elon tweeted a photo of the crew access arm being installed in Florida for astronauts to board crew Dragon. He was ridiculed on Twitter by prominent critics, including journalists from the Wall Street Journal saying "Stop dude it's pathetic." https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1328124300310831104?s=19

And now 2 years and 3 months later, SpaceX has just successfully launched their second crewed mission to the ISS.

No doubt Elon is terrible at estimating development timelines, but when he sets his mind to something, I would never bet against him getting it done against all odds.

 

[yerEVan]

No doubt Elon is terrible at estimating development timelines, but when he sets his mind to something, I would never bet against him getting it done against all odds.

Except a positive COVID test.

 

[powertoold]

Nothing is taken factually or logically.

Lol, I can always go back to your BMW traffic light fanboyism.

 

[EVNow]

Not sure what you do for a living but in my world timing is everything for those wanting to make money.

I’ve never, and I mean ever, been involved in any business discussions where urgency wasn’t part of the equation.

There was a different type of urgency earlier to release parts of FSD to recognize part revenue before quarter close earlier.

 

[tivoboy]

Anyone have a guess or insight into when this might rolll out to more of the fleet?

 

[captain_sahaj]

Anyone have a guess or insight into when this might rolll out to more of the fleet?

Im guessing before year’s end

 

[diplomat33]

Anyone have a guess or insight into when this might roll out to more of the fleet?

3 months, maybe.... 6 months definitely.

 

[Cheburashka]

3 months, maybe.... 6 months definitely.

Yep, pretty much the universal answer to Tesla's timeline on anything.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Anyone have a guess or insight into when this might rolll out to more of the fleet?

Wisdom of crowds says before the end of the year or Q1 next year.
POLL: When will "Quantum Leap" FSD be released to the HW3 fleet?

 

[drtimhill]

Anyone have a guess or insight into when this might rolll out to more of the fleet?

Watch for the pace of updates being rolled out to the current beta testers slowing down a lot. This would indicate they are in "refinement" mode rather than keeping up with the flood of data coming in as part of the beta. Once they reach that point I would guess another month, and then you will see a larger (but still restricted) rollout for more testing. Just my guess.

One thing that will drive this is how many total miles/hours of driving the beta testers achieve, and what the disengagement rate trend looks like. At some point Tesla will need to justify L3 capabilities to the various state authorities, and they need this data to show the car/software is safe (i.e. at least as safe as a human driver). So far, I've not heard of any accidents involving the beta, and I suspect such an incident would be the cause for blaring headlines (there were already some dumb clickbait ones from The Verge when it first rolled out).

 

[Cheburashka]

The beta is still beta and not EAP. Smart summon I think took about 6 months to go from EAP to public. So just based on that I think we are at least 6 months away, but who knows.

 

[Knightshade]

The beta is still beta and not EAP. Smart summon I think took about 6 months to go from EAP to public..

Just shy of a year in fact

 

[Cheburashka]

Just shy of a year in fact

This time it seems that Tesla is under higher pressure to deliver so we will probably see it faster.

 

[n.one.one]

This time it seems that Tesla is under higher pressure to deliver so we will probably see it faster.

And...you would expect that they have gotten better at the process (even pre Dojo).

 

[powertoold]

This is just my opinion, as I care less and less about the SAE levels since they’re meaningless for gauging progress. But if Tesla releases all the FSD beta features to all the HW3 FSD cars, then they will have achieved level 5 in my (fanboy) eyes.

 

[sardox]

all features have priorities on dev team's backlog. summon would never have the same as actual AP but also won't have the same scope as actual AP so it means.. nothing)
If the development is in the phase when the feature's fundamentals are solid then its a matter of bugfixes and refinements - and can be couple months. Otherwise - who knows..

 

[Knightshade]

This is just my opinion, as I care less and less about the SAE levels since they’re meaningless for gauging progress. But if Tesla releases all the FSD beta features to all the HW3 FSD cars, then they will have achieved level 5 in my (fanboy) eyes.

.... that makes 0 sense.

The current FSD beta isn't even L3.

 

[DanCar]

.... that makes 0 sense.

The current FSD beta isn't even L3.

The stupid thing about SAE levels is it is about intent. If it is intended for level 5 regardless of current level, then it is level 5.

 

[Knightshade]

The stupid thing about SAE levels is it is about intent. If it is intended for level 5 regardless of current level, then it is level 5.

Literally nothing you just wrote is accurate or even makes sense.

If I slap wings on a doghouse "intending" to make an airplane, that doesn't make it one.


SAE levels is about who is responsible for what, and when.


At L5 the car is responsible for the entire dynamic driving task. And it's capable of performing it in all circumstances. A human is never required anywhere for anything.

"intent" don't enter into it.

L4 is exactly the same, except you can restrict the performance of the dynamic driving task to specific domains-again no human is ever required for any part of the dynamic driving task within its operational domains... and the car must be capable of, without any human involved, safely parking itself if it would be leaving its operational domain.


If a human is required, ever, you can't be higher than L3- and only that if the car can perform the dynamic driving task in limited circumstances that might require a human to take over in a short (but not immediate) period of time).

Again intent don't enter into it at all. Do you ever require a human? If so then you're not L5. Or 4. By definition.


Can you ever have the car perform the entire dynamic driving task but still need a human on standby to take over after a short warning? (ie human must be present in the drivers seat, and awake, but not required to actively be paying attention to the road) If so then you're L3.

If you can't ever have the car perform the entire dynamic driving task then you're L2 or less.

 

[n.one.one]

If I slap wings on a doghouse "intending" to make an airplane, that doesn't make it one.

Now that's funny.