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FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

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With the larger visualizations, it's easier to tell that the fisheye wide camera is reading the traffic light color from a signal directly above the car and the side pillar cameras can see the signal directly to the side of the car too. These signals are directly above the crosswalk and are still shown green in the visualization as the car passes the crosswalk:

wide side green.jpg
 
It's crazy I even think this, but 6-9 months lol. We've seen essentially every human maneuver from this beta, even unintuitive or difficult to program ones like:

Overtaking a slowly moving leaf blower on a two lane street
Moving over slightly to give room for a person opening a car door
Stopping for pedestrians intending to cross the street
Anticipating possible trajectories of running pedestrians
Moving slightly to the right because oncoming car slightly crosses line (at night)
Able to recognize an oncoming bicyclist at night, with just one visible flashlight

So based on your timeline if it will be at "no accidents on average every 150K miles" (no disengagement) in "6 months" according to you.
Seeing as one month is in 5 days. Fact checking you means that the next update should bring it to no disengagement for every 25,000 miles.
 
So based on your timeline if it will be at "no accidents on average every 150K miles" (no disengagement) in "6 months" according to you.
Seeing as one month is in 5 days. Fact checking you means that the next update should bring it to no disengagement for every 25,000 miles.

Sorry, but this is the wrong logic to apply. Disengagement or development improvement doesn't have to be linear. For example, let's say drivers often have to disengage every 10 miles because the car doesn't get into the correct left turn lane. If Tesla fixes that one problem, it's possible drivers will only have to disengage every 100 miles. I think disengagement improvement can be exponential.

Many of the disengagements we've seen are mostly:
Gets into wrong turn lane
Moves into different lane over complicated intersections
Difficulty turning into narrow roads with cars

As for my estimate of 6-9 months, that's unbelievable to me. But based on what we're seeing, it's possible.
 
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Looks like the beta has gone out to some more influencers. Good sign as it means Tesla is confident.

With all these UI changes I wonder when they will replace the development UI with something more friendly.
I agree. I think there's still a 50/50 chance that we'll see a broader public release of FSD before year-end. Certainly before the end of March.

I just wonder if they'll update the UI to a more friendly version before rolling it out more broadly? But the first time I see a more polished UI in one of these beta videos I'll know for SURE that a broader public release is imminent!
 
I agree. I think there's still a 50/50 chance that we'll see a broader public release of FSD before year-end. Certainly before the end of March.

I just wonder if they'll update the UI to a more friendly version before rolling it out more broadly? But the first time I see a more polished UI in one of these beta videos I'll know for SURE that a broader public release is imminent!
Tesla is planning a monthly subscription FSD model. That is supposed to come out sometime in Q1 (?) - probably around GA.

One thing for sure is - as Tesla finances have greatly improved they won’t care about timing of GA.
 
As for my estimate of 6-9 months, that's unbelievable to me. But based on what we're seeing, it's possible.

Typical tesla fan mindset of I believe in and proclaim this fairy tale (insert whatever aka Level 5 in 6 months) but don't hold me to it when it obviously doesn't happen.
Sorry, but this is the wrong logic to apply. Disengagement or development improvement doesn't have to be linear. For example, let's say drivers often have to disengage every 10 miles because the car doesn't get into the correct left turn lane. If Tesla fixes that one problem, it's possible drivers will only have to disengage every 100 miles. I think disengagement improvement can be exponential.

Many of the disengagements we've seen are mostly:
Gets into wrong turn lane
Moves into different lane over complicated intersections
Difficulty turning into narrow roads with cars

If it was as easy as "Stop it from going into the wrong lane" and the other things you listed. We would already have L4 from every single company. Your clear inability to grasp that Tesla's FSD Beta is the result of 5 years of development to get to this point.
 
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Wonder if we will see Limited Access/NOA code replaced/merged before it goes out to us mere mortals?
Elon's reference to merging code would seem to hint at that, IMO.

"merging code" should not be taken as "merging systems". When using source control and changes are brought in from a separate line of development they are "merged" in. Instead it should be read as "Lot of new code was added, deleted, or changed."

edit: this is my assumption because Elon tends to use jargon, of course he could be writing it literally. but even literally "merging new code" would do nothing unless you also change the old code.
 
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Tesla is planning a monthly subscription FSD model. That is supposed to come out sometime in Q1 (?) - probably around GA.

One thing for sure is - as Tesla finances have greatly improved they won’t care about timing of GA.
Not sure what you do for a living but in my world timing is everything for those wanting to make money.

I’ve never, and I mean ever, been involved in any business discussions where urgency wasn’t part of the equation.