FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

[mikes_fsd]

Perhaps you should have taken the bet?

I think the way the bet was worded you wouldn't have won because it would require retrofitting to older vehicles (??? I don't track all the details of exactly how it was worded), but you would have had a moral victory; new sensors are probably coming (unsurprisingly) - and these aren't just "iterations on the camera so they don't have to source old discontinued sensors" - they're likely real capability improvements:


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That's a much better (and heated apparently) radar, and I'd guess the ultrasonic sensors aren't just going to be a cost-reduction measure in keeping with Tesla's vertical integration.

Complete thread:
https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1319363500695785473?s=20

Lol, the bet was that the sensor type would not change Camera, Radar, Ultrasonics.
I specifically said that it would be IDIOTIC of Tesla to lock themselves into a a sensor from 2016 and still have to source it for vehicles in 202x... as if time froze.

 

[M109Rider]

FYI, you probably should let me speak for myself, especially since you are mischaracterizing me. Let me tell people where I am coming from.

He was replying to me by characterizing what he feels your opinions are, based on YOUR threads. If you feel he’s got you all wrong, sounds like you should go back and change some of your threads.

 

[mikes_fsd]

I think we should celebrate the fact that there are differing approaches to FSD. Even if Tesla ends up with widespread robotaxis, it's nice to know there are other options in case the Tesla network has an issue, for example.

A lot of us enjoy Elon's assertiveness (and hubris) when it comes to tech, so we tend to hold some of his strong beliefs, but at the end of the day, it's great that Waymo is targeting an "overly safe" approach vs Tesla.

Uhm, as an ex-Waymo fanboy, there is not much to celebrate from Waymo.
They have squandered a decade and expect me to just be like - "hey that's cool, they have a sandbox in the desert, I should go visit it and see if I can play with their toys in that sandbox"


Then, "Oh, wait, they have to first approve me to play in their sandbox!?!?!"
Still waiting...

That is not the vision Sergey Brin promised in 2012!

 

[cucubits]

So is FSD going to be $10k soon?

Even I have to admit the videos posted so far are impressive but I would still wait until we see more testing, not just by the select closed group of testers. For all we know this beta could be geo locked. To be honest there's nothing different from that video posted a long time ago of the car driving itself. It will be interesting to see how this rolls out.

Also, as impressive as all this seems to be, I would not pay anything near that just to have FSD in an otherwise poorly put together car. That's probably just me, but for that sort of money, I have higher expectations in build quality, ride quality and cabin noise.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Lol, the bet was that the sensor type would not change Camera, Radar, Ultrasonics.
I specifically said that it would be IDIOTIC of Tesla to lock themselves into a a sensor from 2016 and still have to source it for vehicles in 202x... as if time froze.

Yeah, it's kind of hard to understand why anyone would take that bet. It's not like all radars are created equal - there can be significant improvements and it might well make a huge difference in accomplishing L4/L5 (though I think there are issues beyond even the sensor suite personally). If I were taking that bet I would have specified that a change in radar capability qualified, for example. But it's so hard to define, it just ends up being a silly argument.

Then you get into the argument of what happens if they don't retrofit within the timeframe of the bet, etc. Which of course they won't do if they can't accomplish L4/L5 FSD with the most advanced sensor suite in production, even if those enhancements were actually required to get close to L4/L5. Etc. Etc.

It's all just kind of silly.

 

[helvio]

About bets:
You know that you're going to win? You're an ass.
You don't? You're a fool.

That's why I don't bet!

EDIT: No offense, that's how I first heard it. Not trying to insult anyone haha

 

[mikes_fsd]

Yeah, it's kind of hard to understand why anyone would take that bet. It's not like all radars are created equal - there can be significant improvements and it might well make a huge difference (though I think there are issues beyond even the sensor suite personally). If I were taking that bet I would have specified that a change in radar capability qualified, for example. But it's so hard to define, it just ends up being a silly argument.

Then you get into the argument of what happens if they don't retrofit within the timeframe of the bet, etc. Which of course they won't do if they can't accomplish FSD with the most advanced sensor suite in production. Etc. Etc.

It's all just kind of silly.

We settled that a car produced in Q2/Q3 of 2020 would be able to do L4 self-driving with the existing sensor suite (camera, radar, ultrasonics).

 

[diplomat33]

Uhm, as an ex-Waymo fanboy, there is not much to celebrate from Waymo.
They have squandered a decade and expect me to just be like - "hey that's cool, they have a sandbox in the desert, I should go visit it and see if I can play with their toys in that sandbox"
That is not the vision Sergey Brin promised in 2012!

You don't like that I praise Waymo but you do nothing but constantly hate on Waymo all the time. Stop it!

 

[MP3Mike]

So is FSD going to be $10k soon?

Elon said it will be on Monday.

 

[mikes_fsd]

You don't like that I praise Waymo but you do nothing but constantly hate on Waymo all the time. Stop it!

LOL, no, I will not stop!
Again, check yourself! You seem to pretend to have some sort of authority over the threads related to FSD on this forum... you don't, at least no more than anyone else on the forum.

 

[NHK X]

I think we should celebrate the fact that there are differing approaches to FSD. Even if Tesla ends up with widespread robotaxis, it's nice to know there are other options in case the Tesla network has an issue, for example.

A lot of us enjoy Elon's assertiveness (and hubris) when it comes to tech, so we tend to hold some of his strong beliefs, but at the end of the day, it's great that Waymo is targeting an "overly safe" approach vs Tesla.

Exactly this.

And give credit when credit is due. Each side will see triumph and failure. All of this development and variability in approach is good for us as consumers. An apples to apples comparison we all like to make doesn’t necessarily mean much.

 

[willow_hiller]

That's a much better (and heated apparently) radar, and I'd guess the new ultrasonic sensors aren't just going to be a cost-reduction measure in keeping with Tesla's vertical integration.

This could explain Elon's confidence about excluding LIDAR, even if it was free. Seems like this new radar sensor has LIDAR-like capabilities.

EDIT: And with Electrek article: Tesla is adding a new '4D' radar with twice the range for self-driving - Electrek

 

[diplomat33]

LOL, no, I will not stop!
Again, check yourself! You seem to pretend to have some sort of authority over the threads related to FSD on this forum... you don't, at least no more than anyone else on the forum.

You are ridiculous. I don't claim any authority.

You are the one that acts like the forum's cop telling me to stop talking about Waymo because you don't like it.

Anyway, I don't want to get this thread off topic with this stupid squabble. I'm done.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Uhm, as an ex-Waymo fanboy, there is not much to celebrate from Waymo.
They have squandered a decade and expect me to just be like - "hey that's cool, they have a sandbox in the desert, I should go visit it and see if I can play with their toys in that sandbox"


Then, "Oh, wait, they have to first approve me to play in their sandbox!?!?!"
Still waiting...

That is not the vision Sergey Brin promised in 2012!

Compare the above experience of the past decade to the Tesla experience over the past 4 years.

yes, with it's own bumps and hurdles along the way.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

This could explain Elon's confidence about excluding LIDAR, even if it was free. Seems like this new radar sensor has LIDAR-like capabilities.

EDIT: And with Electrek article: Tesla is adding a new '4D' radar with twice the range for self-driving - Electrek

Yeah, this is the least surprising development I have seen in quite some time. There is tons of room for improvement in radars.

 

[NHK X]

You are ridiculous. I don't claim any authority.

You are the one that acts like the forum's cop telling me to stop talking about Waymo because you don't like it.

Anyway, I don't want to get this thread off topic with this stupid squabble. I'm done.

Haha you guys both already got cake on your face.

But we all know you both and understand it.

 

[Eno Deb]

Yeah, it's kind of hard to understand why anyone would take that bet. It's not like all radars are created equal - there can be significant improvements and it might well make a huge difference in accomplishing L4/L5 (though I think there are issues beyond even the sensor suite personally).

If Green is correct, the radar that he mentions is actually a high-resolution radar, which is very different from what we currently have in the automotive sector, and has been discussed as a potential alternative to lidar:

Here Comes High-Res Car Radar

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

If Green is correct, the radar that he mentions is actually a high-resolution radar, which is very different from what we currently have in the automotive sector, and has been discussed as a potential alternative to lidar:

Here Comes High-Res Car Radar

Of course. Not a surprise at all.

There's hope for a reduction in phantom braking - for new owners!

 

[NHK X]

If Green is correct, the radar that he mentions is actually a high-resolution radar, which is very different from what we currently have in the automotive sector, and has been discussed as a potential alternative to lidar:

Here Comes High-Res Car Radar

This ain’t the great surprises he said he would reveal one week later right?

 

[DanCar]

If you can solve for L3, you can solve for "L4" and "L5".

I find that absurd. Yes can solve anything but will solve is another thing. Tesla can be comfortable implementing L3 at 20 mph or less on limited access freeway, and not comfortable with more. 20 mph limits liability. Harder to kill someone at 20 mph than at 40, 60 or 80 mph. Hitting something at 20 mph is less traumatic then at 40 mph, for example potholes.